Hail and Damaging Wind in Missouri, June 9, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
216 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...CONTINUE TO HAVE MAJOR ISSUES WITH GFS MODEL...WITH
EXTREME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. SO FOR THE MOST PART WILL GO
WITH NAM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

CWA IS STUCK BETWEEN TWO WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...ONE THAT HAS JUST
MOVED OUT OF THE CWA...CURRENTLY ALONG THE MO/IOWA BORDER AND
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY IS THE ONE THAT COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR OUR CWA IN THE
SHORT TERM. ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED OVER CWA SINCE LAST NIGHT/S
ACTIVITY...WITH CAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 OVER MOST OF AREA AND
LI/S BETWEEN MINUS 6 AND MINUS 8. ONLY FLY IN OINTMENT TO KEEP
THINGS FROM FIRING IS THE CAP AND WEAKER THAN THOUGHT WAA TODAY.
TEMPS HAVE ONLY RISEN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
SO WILL JUST KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...WE WILL REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR...SO LOW CHANCE POPS STILL
BEST BET. HOWEVER...SHOULD HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT
AS NEXT IN SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES APPROACHES THE AREA AND
STALLS OUT OVERHEAD. THEN SOME CONFUSION ON HOW MODELS HANDLE THE
LANDFALL OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE. REMNANT LOW AND MOISTURE FROM
ARLENE TO AFFECT EASTERN SECTIONS OF MO BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL HOLD UP FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVEN MORE. SO CHANCES OF
PCPN TO LINGER THROUGH OUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
REGION.
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE
IL...NONE.
&&

BYRD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-101200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-CLINTON IL-
COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-IRON-JEFFERSON-
JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-MADISON IL-MARION-
MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-
PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST CHARLES-
ST CLAIR IL-ST FRANCOIS-ST LOUIS-ST LOUIS CITY-STE GENEVIEVE-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
330 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.  WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...SOME
MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND
FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.  THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ACT UPON VERY
WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.