Hail in Missouri, June 6, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...

MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THIS MORNINGS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE THE
FIRST 12-24 HOURS. ALMOST ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS GENERATING SOME
QPF OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT WE ARE HAVING A HARD TIME KEYING IN ON
WHAT THE IMPETUS IS FOR THE PRECIP. MODELS ARENT EXACTLY DOING A
STELLAR JOB WITH ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR KS/OK BORDER...SO REALLY
HARD TO EMBRACE THEM THEIR IDEA OF RAIN FOR TODAY. HAVING SAID
THAT...CONVECTION IS EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE TO OUR WEST SO
OBVIOUSLY WILL NEED TO INCLUDE POPS OF SOME SORT TODAY. WILL MAKE A
LAST MINUTE DECISION ON POPS JUST PRIOR TO GRID ISSUANCE.

TODAYS PHANTOM DISTURBANCE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH UPPER HEIGHTS SLOWING BUILDING. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
AND NO OBVIOUS TRIGGERS APPARENT KEPT FORECAST GENERALLY DRY FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT FRONT MAY TRY
AND SAG INTO MISSOURI BY LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SOME
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE FAR TOO COOL DURING THE DAY OVER THE DRY
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...SO KEPT TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE GUIDANCE THERE.
ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE TODAYS HIGHS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN TO KEEP IT COOLER...SO EMBRACED
GUIDANCE EVERYWHERE TODAY. GIVEN THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL OPT
TO KEEP THINGS VERY BRIEF THIS MORNING ON CLOSE ON THAT NOTE.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION THIS MORNING LSX/EAX/HPC

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF JOPLIN
AND SPRINGFIELD TAF SITES WITH DECENT CAP ON 00Z KSGF SOUNDING. WILL
BUMP CLOUD COVER UP IN THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT
FOR ANVIL SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM CONVECTION OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY.

TERRY

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FROM SGF TO VIH AND
SOUTHEASTWARD. DID A BIT MORE NUMBER CRUNCHING THIS MORNING AND
FOUND THAT UNO HAS ONLY RECEIVED 19% OF THEIR NORMAL PRECIPITATION
SINCE MAY 1ST. AFTER MISSING ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE YESTERDAY...WE ARE NOW IN THE MIST OF A 23 DAY STRETCH
WITHOUT A SINGLE DAY RAINFALL OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. EVEN
MORE REMARKABLE...IT HAS BEEN 145 DAYS SINCE WE HAVE SEEN A CALENDAR
DAY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 0.80. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 7 OTHER TIMES
SINCE 1888 THAT SGF HAS SEEN A STRETCH LONGER THAN THIS...WITH THE
LONGEST STRETCH 170 DAYS FROM 11/10/35 TO 4/27/36 (DURING THE DUST
BOWL ERA).

IZZI

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-061800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
  AND HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS
  AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR
  SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH THIS EVENING.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT
  ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

  DISCUSSION:

  A WARM LAYER ALOFT...MARGINAL WIND SHEAR...AND WEAK SURFACE
  CONVERGENCE WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
  THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WILL
  ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
  GREATEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH A STRONG TO
  SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.

  THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
  HOURS MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION.
  A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...AND AGAIN LATE IN
  THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SPOTTER
  ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
411 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

MOZ066-061015-
VERNON-
411 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VERNON COUNTY UNTIL 515 AM CDT...

AT 405 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEVADA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR WALKER BY 435 AM CDT.
  NEAR SCHELL CITY BY 500 AM CDT.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

IZZI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
417 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

MOZ067-078-061015-
CEDAR-ST. CLAIR-
417 AM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CEDAR AND ST. CLAIR COUNTIES
UNTIL 515 AM CDT...

AT 416 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EL DORADO SPRINGS...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
STOCKTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OSCEOLA BY 515 AM CDT.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

IZZI