Damaging Wind in Missouri, July 21, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
325 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...

HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE A STAPLE OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/BOW ECHO TO THE NORTH OF CWA WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS IA THIS MORNING. WET-EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY CUTTING IA IN
HALF WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST
MO ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 315K SURFACE PER LATEST
RUC/NAM PROGS. OVERALL...MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB HANDLING THE
QPF. CORFIDI VECTORS AND 850-300MB CONTOURS SUGGEST CONVECTION
SHOULD HAVE A SOUTHWARD SHIFT THIS MORNING. WILL BUMP POPS UP ACROSS
NORTHERN MO FOR MORNING STORMS WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO REST OF
GRIDS.

ALTHOUGH UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MO MODELS FCST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST OUT OF WY TONIGHT.
NAM/GFS INSIST THERE WILL BE A BOUNDARY WHICH MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BACK DOOR COLDFRONT?...AND SETS UP THE POTENTIAL FOR
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MO LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWEST MO.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BASED UPON A LACK OF A
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS LID STRENGTHENS AND
HOLDS BACK RAIN CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH THE
CENTURY MARK BOTH DAYS.

MJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
1132 PM...
WATCHING DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN NEBRASKA. SHOWING SOME
ACCELERATION TO THE SOUTHEAST. 00Z NAM RUN WOULD SHOW THETA E AXIS
WOULD SUPPORT A SOUTHEAST TREND TOWARD NORTHWEST MISSOURI LATE
TONIGHT...SO WILL ADD SOME CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT. CORFIDI
VECTORS QUITE WEAK BY THAT TIME...BUT THICKNESS WOULD INDICATED
STORMS COULD CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEAST TREK AS THEY HEAD INTO IOWA SO
WOULD LIKELY BE CLIPPING NORTHWEST MISSOURI. WILL HOLD OFF ON
PUTTING POPS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TO GIVE MIDNIGHT CREW A CHANCE
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS STORM COMPLEX.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
327 PM...
FOR A QUIET WEATHER DAY...SEVERAL ITEMS TO DISCUSS.  FIRST ONE OF
INTEREST IS THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN MISSOURI WHICH IS
REMNANTS OF ACTIVITY THAT WAS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA ALL MORNING.
DESPITE TEMPERATURES AT 7H IN THE 13-15C RANGE...THE ACTIVITY
MANAGED TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN MO...BUT HAS FINALLY ABOUT DECAYED
COMPLETELY.  TEMPERATURES ARE WARM OUT THERE...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. TEMPS/HEAT AND POPS
ARE THE FORECAST DILEMMA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE
RIDGE ONLY TO DROP IT FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN THE WAVE
THIS MORNING.  AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...ACTIVITY TODAY HAS REMAINED
JUST NORTH OF US FOR THE MOST PART...AND FEEL THAT THIS SHOULD
LIKELY BE THE CASE ON TOMORROW.  HAVE ADDED SOME CLOUDS TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND RETAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCES POPS. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS CORFIDI VECTORS AND
UVV MAKE THIS A POSSIBILITY.  ETA/NAM ALSO HAS A SIMILAR SCENARIO
FOR FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE A CASE OF CAP VS CAPE. HAVE MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S LOOKING GOOD.

THE PRECIP UNCERTAINTY MAKES TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INTERESTING.  H8
TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE +25-27 DEG RANGE SO NO DOUBT IT WILL
BE HOT. AS THE GROUND CONTINUES TO DRY OUT...IT IS EXPECTED FOR DEWS
TO DROP SLIGHTLY. SHOULD SEE CAP CONTINUE TO BUILD WHICH SHOULD ALSO
KEEP MOST PRECIP IN NORTHERN COUNTIES IF IT OCCURS.
HOWEVER...POSSIBLE PRECIP AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER COULD AFFECT
TEMPS.  FOR NOW...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY.  IT IS MARGINAL IN THE NORTHERNMOST
COUNTIES...HOWEVER IF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN DOES NOT OCCUR...IT COULD
BE JUST AS WARM AS LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH.  TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDICES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE WEST CONUS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
EXPANDING EAST. DESPITE THE SLIGHT LOWERING OF THICKNESSES AS THE
RIDGE FLATTENS...850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE RANGING THROUGH THE MID
AND UPPER 20S THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN
GETTING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGIT RANGE. WITH DEW POINTS RANGING THROUGH
THE UPPER 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICES AROUND THE 105 MARK
FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER...PUSHING SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HELP MODERATE OUR TEMPERATURES A
CATEGORY OR TWO. LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING OUR NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN. HOWEVER...LEFT THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE
(20%) FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING ISSUES AND UNCERTAINTIES AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH.

27/CUTTER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM THURSDAY ALL COUNTIES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
102 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-211200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-
SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-
CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-
JOHNSON-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
102 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES
AROUND 100 DEGREES.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN MISSOURI...GENERALLY NORTH OF A MOBERLY TO MARYVILLE LINE. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING NORTH OF
A MOBERLY TO MARYVILLE LINE. NONE OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LVQK