Damaging Wind in Missouri, January 12, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS WERE INTENSIFYING ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING DEPICTED CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 800
MB BUT WAS BEING OVERCOME BY FORCING AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT STRETCHED
FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI BACK TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTED A POTENT TROUGH TRACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.

INCREASING LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
IS MODEST WIND PROFILES ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 60 KTS.
SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEARS THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK IN BOWING
SEGMENTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM HELICITIES NEAR 300. STORMS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING AND LIKELY EVOLVE IN A SQUALL LINE.
THE FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER AN INCH SUPPORT INTENSE RAINFALL RATES.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. 18Z MODEL RUN OF THE ETA
SUGGEST THAT A DEFORMATION ZONE MAY SET UP NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THIS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA.

A COLD AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FROM FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY.

FOSTER
&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN
STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE EVENING
WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT.
STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT A GENERALLY IMPROVING
TREND CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

JLT/FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL THURSDAY 3 AM ALL COUNTIES.
.KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL THURSDAY 3 AM BOURBON...CHEROKEE AND
CRAWFORD COUNTIES.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-131200-
BARRY-BARTON-BENTON-BOURBON-CAMDEN-CEDAR-CHEROKEE-CHRISTIAN-CRAWFORD-
DADE-DALLAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-GREENE-HICKORY-HOWELL-JASPER-LACLEDE-
LAWRENCE-MARIES-MCDONALD-MILLER-MORGAN-NEWTON-OREGON-OZARK-PHELPS-
POLK-PULASKI-SHANNON-ST. CLAIR-STONE-TANEY-TEXAS-VERNON-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AVA...BOLIVAR...BRANSON...CAMDENTON...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...FORT SCOTT...HOUSTON...JOPLIN...LEBANON...
MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...NEVADA...OSAGE BEACH...OZARK...
PITTSBURG...ROLLA...SPRINGFIELD...STOCKTON AND WEST PLAINS.
100 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SOUTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WILL PRODUCE:
    HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
    ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL.
    AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
  THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

  A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
  COUNTIES ALONG THE KANSAS MISSOURI BORDER. MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
  STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS
  WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
  EAST THROUGH THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS EVENING. THE RISK OF SEVERE
  WEATHER SHOULD END IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY
  AROUND MIDNIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS
  AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT
  WITH A SPRING LIKE AIRMASS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TO PRODUCE THE
  POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS. LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
  AND A WARM LAYER ALOFT HAS INHIBITED STORM FORMATION SO FAR.
  HOWEVER INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
  LIKELY INITIATE POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER
  THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
  COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
  STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A
  SQUALL LINE BY EARLY EVENING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS
  DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND
  TORNADOES MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS.

  THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO
  FLOODING. A QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN SOME
  AREAS. WITH AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL
  QUICKLY TURN INTO EXCESS RUNOFF WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH
  FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  COLD WEATHER WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF AROUND ZERO WILL OCCUR OVER
  THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES SOUTH OVER THE MID
  SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
  SNOW ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 4 PM...AND WILL BE MORE
  LIKELY NEEDED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

  SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO RELAY
  REPORTS OF FLOODING.

FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
335 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-130400-
BARRY-BARTON-BENTON-BOURBON-CAMDEN-CEDAR-CHEROKEE-CHRISTIAN-CRAWFORD-
DADE-DALLAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-GREENE-HICKORY-HOWELL-JASPER-LACLEDE-
LAWRENCE-MARIES-MCDONALD-MILLER-MORGAN-NEWTON-OREGON-OZARK-PHELPS-
POLK-PULASKI-SHANNON-ST. CLAIR-STONE-TANEY-TEXAS-VERNON-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AVA...BOLIVAR...BRANSON...CAMDENTON...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...FORT SCOTT...HOUSTON...JOPLIN...LEBANON...
MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...NEVADA...OSAGE BEACH...OZARK...
PITTSBURG...ROLLA...SPRINGFIELD...STOCKTON AND WEST PLAINS.
335 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 3...IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN MISSOURI:

BARRY...BARTON...BENTON...CAMDEN...CEDAR...CHRISTIAN...DADE...
DALLAS...DENT...DOUGLAS...GREENE...HICKORY...HOWELL...JASPER...
LACLEDE...LAWRENCE...MARIES...MCDONALD...MILLER...MORGAN...NEWTON...
OREGON...OZARK...PHELPS...POLK...PULASKI...SHANNON...ST. CLAIR...
STONE...TANEY...TEXAS...VERNON...WEBSTER AND WRIGHT.

IN KANSAS:

BOURBON...CHEROKEE AND CRAWFORD.

SOME CITIES IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE AVA...
BOLIVAR...BRANSON...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...FORT SCOTT...
HOUSTON...JOPLIN...LEBANON...MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...
NEVADA...OSAGE BEACH...OZARK...PITTSBURG...ROLLA...SPRINGFIELD...
STOCKTON AND WEST PLAINS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL MEDIA OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

BOOKBINDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
419 PM CST WED JAN 12 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             2 S WALNUT GROVE        37.39N 93.55W
01/12/2005  0.75 INCH        GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY A VOLUNTEER WEATHER OBSERVER

SAW