Damaging Wind in Missouri, August 13, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1148 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK AND MADE ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO MAX TEMPS.

PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ERUPTING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND A TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS IN
PLACE.  THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED GOOD POTENTIAL FOR PULSE SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MICROBURSTS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS COVERS THIS WELL AND DECIDED TO
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO ONGOING WEATHER AND POP GRIDS.

MIXED LAYER CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO APPROXIMATELY 1500 J/KG WITH
DOWNDRAFT CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR
WET MICROBURSTS.  STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIKE YESTERDAY...UPDRAFTS ARE GOING UP AT RANDOM AROUND THE
SPRINGFIELD AIRPORT.  NONE OF WHICH APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING THE
RUNWAY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  WILL LEAVE THUNDER OFFICIALLY
OUT OF THE TAF IN THE SHORT TERM...AND INCLUDE A VCTS.  HOWEVER...FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE BOUND TO DETERIORATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...AS A FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI.  A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOLLOW...MOST
LIKELY AFFECTING THE SPRINGFIELD AIRPORT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.  THE JOPLIN AIRPORT WILL BE AFFECTED BY STORMS SOONER
THAN SPRINGFIELD...AND WILL ADVERTISE THIS IN THE TAFS.

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

CRAMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-141100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
  FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
  STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS UP TO 60 MPH
  AND SMALL HAIL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
  THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH
  OF INTERSTATE 44.

  DISCUSSION:

  A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI TO
  SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND
  MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
  THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
  MORE NUMEROUS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 CLOSER TO THE
  FRONT. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT
  ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE
  WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND
  NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL IN THE
  STRONGER STORMS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING TWO
  INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD DEVELOP WHERE STORMS TRACK OVER
  THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
  AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
  IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO THE
  ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
  RELAY HEAVY RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
  SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
205 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE NEVADA             37.79N 94.32W
08/13/2005                   VERNON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS DOWNED TREES.

CRAMER