Damaging Wind in Missouri, August 13, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
A FRONT REMAINED STALLED FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPES WERE NEAR
2000 J/KG. WATER VAPOR SHOWED A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WAS STREAMING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THIS TROUGH. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW APPEARED TO
BE ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
THE 12Z SOUNDING SUGGEST THAT STRONG MICROBURST WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER FLOW REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL. A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
TRANSPORT VERY RICH THETA-E AIRMASS INTO THE AREA WITH 850 MB
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 15 DEGREES C. RIBBON OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WILL STRETCH ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN
ADDITION MINOR SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL FETCH AND IN
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. WILL
AID PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL FALL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 WHERE TRAINING
CELLS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY AMOUNTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME
CONCERN IF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOP. MEANWHILE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MORE ISOLATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES LATER SUNDAY.

NAM AND GFS MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
ON HIGHS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. I HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE DEGREES DOWN BUT BELIEVE ANY
BREAKS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER 80S.
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 70S IF PRECIPITATION PERSISTS.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE 850 MB FLOW INTERSECTING THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAINFALL MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER AMPLE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LINGER TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
DIURNAL ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS STILL IN QUESTION SO ONLY INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...
INITIAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE SPRINGFIELD TERMINAL AT
1930Z WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY 21Z. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
BOUND TO DETERIORATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AS A FRONT IS
SCHEDULED TO MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOLLOW...MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE
JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD AIRPORTS THIS EVENING.

CRAMER/FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-141100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
  FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
  STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS UP TO 60 MPH
  AND SMALL HAIL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
  THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH
  OF INTERSTATE 44.

  DISCUSSION:

  A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI TO
  SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND
  MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
  THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
  MORE NUMEROUS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 CLOSER TO THE
  FRONT. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT
  ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE
  WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND
  NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL IN THE
  STRONGER STORMS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING TWO
  INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD DEVELOP WHERE STORMS TRACK OVER
  THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
  AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
  IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO THE
  ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
  RELAY HEAVY RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
  SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
205 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE NEVADA             37.79N 94.32W
08/13/2005                   VERNON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS DOWNED TREES.

CRAMER