Hail in Missouri, April 21, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
950 AM CDT THU APR 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...

ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR SEVERE CONVECTION LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
PROPAGATING INTO WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MO. THIS BOUNDARY IS BEING RE-ENFORCED BY SMALL MCS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MO...WHICH ITSELF IS BEING MAINTAINED BY MCV GENERATED FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FURTHER WEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GREATLY
INCREASE TORNADIC POTENTIAL LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
MO. ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THIS AREA OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS LEAVING GROUND FAIRLY SATURATED. THUS HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON NEAR TRIPLE POINT
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. STORMS WHICH AREA ABLE TO TRACK ALONG/NORTH OF
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A GREATLY INCREASED CHANCE
OF BECOMING TORNADIC...HOWEVER EVEN FURTHER SOUTH STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE AND PROPAGATE INTO WARM SECTOR WILL BE CAPABLE
OF BECOMING TORNADIC AS WELL GIVEN SLIGHTLY BACKED FLOW ACROSS
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR GIANT HAIL (>2
INCHES IN DIAMETER).

IN PROCESS OF UPDATING GRIDS TO ADD SEVERE WORDING...AS WELL AS
ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT THINKING.

SEAMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

232 AM...
AN ACTIVE DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  CURRENTLY
TRACKING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFTOVER FROM YESTERDAY.  THIS LINE OF STORMS
CONNECTS THE DOTS BETWEEN ACTIVITY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND STORMS
IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.  GOOD INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN STORMS THAT POP UP
QUICKLY...BUT WITH LITTLE ORGANIZATION THUS FAR.  WITHOUT STRONG
STEERING FLOW...NO SHORT WAVE TO PUSH THINGS ALONG...STORMS HAVE
QUICKLY TURNED INTO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST ENTERS THE
PICTURE.  THIS COINCIDES WITH THE CENTER OF SURFACE LOW MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI.  THE INGREDIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE:  BACKED WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GOOD SHEAR. CAPE IS >2500
J/KG.  CLOUD COVER FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT
INSTABILITY...BUT THE LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS
NEVER MATERIALIZED OVERNIGHT...SO CLOUD COVER WILL BE LACKING IN
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUPERCELLULAR IS THE STORM MODE
EXPECTED. WILL MENTION SVR STORMS IN THE GRIDS AND TOR/WIND/HAIL IN
HWO.  SOME FLOOD POTENTIAL...BUT MAINLY IN NORTHERN HALF OF CWA...AS
SOUTHERN HALF HAS BEEN DRY OF LATE. SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY
TONIGHT...SO CONVECTION SHOULD TOO.  SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.  MAIN CANADIAN BOUNDARY ALSO
ARRIVES ON FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A VERY LOW DIURNAL
RANGE THAT DAY.

NO CHANGES MADE IN THE EXTENDED.

LVQ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

330 PM...
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW REX
BLOCK PATTERN ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF CONUS...CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER
LOW CENTERED COVER NORTHERN UT WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN CANADA. MCS WHICH DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL PLAINS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF FORECAST AREA...AS
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN MO. SYNOPTIC
SURFACE FRONT REMAINS FURTHER NORTH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IA BACK
ALONG NE/KS BORDER. IT APPEARS THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT
HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS FORECAST AREA...AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH WHILE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS
TO BE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN REGION OF UPSLOPE FLOW
NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP EAST AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
ALONG NOSE OF INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. COMPLEX LIKELY WONT REACH
CWA UNTIL AFTER 3 AM AT THE EARLIEST...AND POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL
SUNRISE AS CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST A VERY SLOW MEAN PROPAGATION
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OVERNIGHT MCS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST. THIS LEADS TO
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION TAKES
PLACE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AS
ATMOSPHERE ATTEMPTS TO RECOVER. GIVEN UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...STRONG FORCING ALONG DRYLINE AS IT SURGES INTO
EASTERN KANSAS...AND DECENT LARGE SCALE LIFT WITHIN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF DRYLINE...MODE OF
CONVECTION LIKELY TO BE SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A
TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS WHICH AREA ABLE TO DEVELOP.
CONVECTION LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF CWA.

LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CONUS FOR UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE RIDGE ON BACK SIDE OF
THIS TROUGH PROGGED TO SPREAD ACROSS LOWER/MID MO VALLEY...RESULTING
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE
BY MID WEEK...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE LEFT GOING CHANCE POPS IN FOR
THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE LIKELY TO REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN PRESENCE OF
SURFACE RIDGE ALONG GULF THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS DONT EXPECT
MUCH THREAT OF SEVERE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

SEAMAN

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONGIHT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36.

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1254 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-221800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-
SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-
CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-
JOHNSON-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1254 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND FLOODING...IS EXPECTED AFTER
3 PM....AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR ST JOSEPH TO
CARROLLTON TO BOONVILLE. IN ADDITION...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. RECENT
RAINFALL HAS LEFT THE GROUND ACROSS THIS AREA NEARLY
SATURATED...THUS FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FURTHER
SOUTH...SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE WEAKER...WHICH WOULD INDICATE A
LOWER THREAT FOR TORNADOES ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER BY MID
EVENING AS THEY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH THIS COMPLEX. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
416 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

MOZ043-053-054-212145-
BATES-CASS-HENRY-
416 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN BATES...SOUTHEASTERN
CASS AND SOUTHERN HENRY COUNTIES...

AT 413 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
NEAR BUTLER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN BATES...CASS AND HENRY COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
ALTONA AND BALLARD...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

GK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
427 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     HAIL             ARRINGTON               39.47N 95.53W
04/21/2005  1.00 INCH        ATCHISON           KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

SF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
438 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

MOZ037-043-044-212215-
CASS-JACKSON-JOHNSON-
438 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CASS...SOUTHERN JACKSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES...

AT 433 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
NEAR ARCHIE...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF HARRISONVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CASS...JACKSON AND JOHNSON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES
OF ARCHIE...HARRISONVILLE...GUNN CITY AND STRASBURG...SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY RAPIDLY.
THEREFORE...LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
448 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             BALLARD                 38.37N 94.15W
04/21/2005  2.75 INCH        BATES              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
459 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

KSZ103-MOZ020-028-212300-
BUCHANAN-LEAVENWORTH-PLATTE-
459 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN LEAVENWORTH...PLATTE AND
SOUTHERN BUCHANAN COUNTIES...

AT 454 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR CUMMINGS...OR 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ATCHISON...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WILL BE...
  6 MILES SOUTH OF WITHROP BY 505 PM CDT.
  NEAR BEAN LAKE BY 515 PM CDT.
  NEAR WESTON BY 530 PM CDT.
  6 MILES SOUTH OF DEARBORN BY 545 PM CDT.
  NEAR RIDGELY BY 600 PM CDT.

LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

SCHMIT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
506 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             N EFFINGHAM             39.52N 95.40W
04/21/2005  1.75 INCH        ATCHISON           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SF