Hail in Minnesota, September 12, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
818 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...
TOR WATCH NUMBER 778 WAS REPLACED A BIT AGO BY TOR WATCH NUMBER 780
FOR PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AREA. TORNADIC THREAT SO FAR HAS BEEN ONE
OF BOUNDARY INTERACTION WITH NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT EARLIER THIS
EVENING ACRS NRN CWA. BNDRY PLUGGING EWRD ACRS CWA NOW FM JUST W OF
BKX TO NLG. SECONDARY BNDRY E W NEAR MN/IA BORDER. EXPECT MOST OF
THE SEVERE THREAT TO BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SOME WIND AS BNDRY
LAYER STARTING TO STABILIZE AND BEST OF SHEAR BECOMES ELEVATED. NEW
GRIDS OUT SOON...AND ZFP TO FOLLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...FIRE WEATHER FORECAST MAY NOT BE
AVAILABLE THIS AFTERNOON.

FOCUS TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS UPPER WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTERACTS WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS BOUNDARY FROM LOW PRESSURE IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTH TO A SECONDARY LOW NEAR K9V9. FROM HEAR...
WE HAVE TWO CONVERGENCE AREAS EXTENDING TO THE EAST...THE NORTHERN
MOST NORTH OF BKX AND MML INTO CENTRAL MN...AND THE SECOND EXTENDING
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHERN IOWA. EXPECT
THIS TO BE THE MAIN FOCUSING POINT AS THE WAVE MOVES IN DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST EARLY EVENING POPS
OVER MOST OF OUR SD COUNTIES...SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA DURING
THE LATE EVENING AS THE MAIN COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE BEST LIFT EXITS OUR AREA.
BRINGING SOME HIGHER POPS BACK INTO THE WEST...MAINLY FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT.

MODELS NOTABLY ETA/ETA12 HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS LGT SHWR THREAT
CONTG NRN PART OF FCST AREA TUE MRNG IN ADDITION TO LINGRNG SHWRS
AND A FEW TSTMS SLWLY PULLING OUT OF NWRN IA AND ADJACENT AREAS.
WILL INCLUDE BOTH AREAS IN FCST...BUT EXPCT SUPPORT FOR BOTH SHUD BE
GONE BY 18Z. LO LVL MOISTR SHUD DVLP/KEEP SC/ST CLD DEC IN THRU MRNG
OVER FCST AREA WITH THESE CLDS DCRG BY MID/LATE AFTN. THEREAFTER
MAINLY MID CLDS PLUS SOME LO LVL MOISTR EXPCTD TO PREVENT SKIES
GOING TO MOCLR FOPR TUE NGT AND WED...SO THOSES PDS WILL START A
LONG STRING OF PTCLDYS IN FCST.

COOLER AIR OF COURSE WILL HAVE ITS GRIP ON AREA BY TUE WITH HI TEMPS
PRBLY CLOSE TO COOLR MET GUIDNCE UNDER CLD CVR. THEREAFTER VERY SLW
WARMNG ON HI TEMPS NEXT FEW DAYS...COOLR AT NGT FOR A CPL DAYS THEN
SLW WARMNG ON MINS.

TSTM CHC WE HAVE BEEN CARRYNG FOR WED NGT AND THU CONTS TO BE VERY
MARGNL WITH AT BEST WEAK SUPPORT SEEN NOW. 00Z CANADIAN AND ITS BIG
PCPN AREA OVER OUR SERN FCST AREA LOOKED SUSPICIOUS AND ON NEW
CANADIAN RUN IS NOT THERE...WELL WEAKR AND S OF AREA ANYWAY. BECAUSE
OF WEAK LIFT AND VERY WK WAA ASSOCD WITH WAVE MAINLY MOVG N OF
AREA...WILL KEEP SLGT CHC IN...PREFER TO LOOK AT IT AS 80 PCT
PROBABILITY OF NO RAIN. OTRW PTCLDY FCST WILL GNLY CONT.

BIGGER QSTNS ARISE FOR PCPN LAST 3 DAYS OF FCST PD...SAT SUN AND
MON. A WEAK WV SHOWN BY GFS CUD CONCEIVABLY TRIGGER A FEW SHWRS
SAT...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT UPR TROF MAY APPROACH THE AREA MON. HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP PCPN OUTR FOR SAT AS WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING WITH
SUPPORT FAIRLY WEAK. HAVE ALSE KEPT OUT OF LAST DAY OF
FCST...MON...DUE TO VERY UNCERTAIN SPEED AND STRUCTURE OF ANY SYS
APPCHG. IN OTHER WORDS...MODELS ARE ALMOST CERTAIN TO PRESENT
CHANGING SOLNS NEXT SVRL RUNS. HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH SOME COOLNG
FOR MON AFTER WARMUP THRU SUN...GFS SHOWING BROAD LOW S OF AREA
PROMOTING COOLER LOW LVL FLOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

CHAPMAN/HACKER/WILLIAMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1140 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-131200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1140 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TYNDALL AND SALEM IN SOUTH DAKOTA...TO
PIPESTONE AND WINDOM IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF
NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AS WELL AS THE
YANKTON AND SIOUX FALLS AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. IN THESE
AREAS... REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 2 OR 3 PM... WITH THE THREAT OF HAIL TO SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS OR A LITTLE LARGER... ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH.

FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...WITH HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 3 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
806 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             9 ESE TRIPP             43.17N 97.80W
09/12/2005  0.88 INCH        HUTCHINSON         SD   PUBLIC

&&

HEITKAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
812 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     HAIL             SCOTLAND                43.15N 97.72W
09/12/2005  1.00 INCH        BON HOMME          SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HEITKAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
827 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     HAIL             4 SW MENNO              43.20N 97.63W
09/12/2005  1.00 INCH        HUTCHINSON         SD   PUBLIC

&&

HEITKAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
834 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     HAIL             6 SSE MENNO             43.15N 97.55W
09/12/2005  0.75 INCH        YANKTON            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HEITKAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
852 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             3 W SCOTLAND            43.15N 97.78W
09/12/2005  0.88 INCH        BON HOMME          SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL FELL UNTIL 8 PM

&&

HEITKAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
924 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             ARLINGTON               44.36N 97.13W
09/12/2005  1.00 INCH        KINGSBURY          SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0850 PM     HAIL             11 NW IRENE             43.18N 97.34W
09/12/2005  1.00 INCH        TURNER             SD   PUBLIC

0906 PM     HAIL             5 N MAYFIELD            43.15N 97.32W
09/12/2005  0.88 INCH        YANKTON            SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL LASTED THROUGH 916 PM

&&

HEITKAMP