Hail in Minnesota, June 20, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1030 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL US. A SERIES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SURGING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA WILL POTENTIALLY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY.
IN ADDITION...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR KABR TO KPIR
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES ACROSS CWA WILL RISE TO AROUND 3000 J/KG
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WITH LI VALUES AROUND NEGATIVE 6.
TEMPERATURES VERY WARM ALOFT WITH 14 AND 13 DEGREES C AT 700 MB ON
12Z UNR AND ABR SOUNDINGS...AND WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS ANY POTENTIAL
CONVECTION TILL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED ALL
AFTERNOON POPS. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE CAP IS
NOT AS STRONG. WEAK WIND SHEAR NOT ALL THAT SUPPORTIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE BEST SHEAR LOCATED
NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES. BEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM ALOFT. FREEZING LEVELS ELEVATED
AROUND 16K FT...SO EXPECT LARGE HAIL THREAT TO BE SOMEWHAT
MINIMIZED.  UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&
.PREV. DISCUSSION...
TYPICAL MODEL BIASES WITH ETA TOO FAST AND AGGRESSIVE MOVG IN SCT
TSTMS WITH RIDGE RIDER TDA AND AGAIN TUE...AND GFS OVERALL TOO SLOW
AND TOO FAR WEST WITH PATTERN. SLY FLOW OF VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIR WILL MOVE EWD OVR CWA TDA AND PREV FCST TEMPS LOOK GOOD. AS A
MATTER OF FACT...WILL HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT SOME 100 DEG HEAT INDICES
WITH COMBO OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY...MAINLY IN SD PTN OF CWA THIS
AFTN...AND IN MO VALLEY FOR TUE. DVLPG NE TO SW BOUNDARY IN CNTRL SD
WILL BE FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DVLPMT TDA...THEN SHOULD BE BATCH
OF SCT TSTMS MOVG SEWD TNGT OVR NRN AND ERN CWA ALG EDGE OF CAP.
HOWEVER...MAIN CHG TO PREV FCST IS TO SLOW DOWN BACK DOOR CDFNT INTO
CWA TUE...PERMITTING TEMPS TO WARM INTO LWR 90S ALG MO VALLEY. FNT
SHUD ACT AS BOUNDARY FOR NEXT PSBLY SIGNIFICANT RIDGE RIDER SEWD
OVR CWA TUE AFTN AND NGT. ETA HITS MORE IN ERN CWA TUE AFTN AND GFS
BULLEYES WRN CWA TUE NGT...AND THINK A COMPROMISE IS IN ORDER OVR
CWA LATE TUE AFTN THRU EVE. ANY STORMS THAT CAN BREAK THE CAP SHOULD
BE HP SUPERCELLS WITH GOOD SHEAR AND CAPE EXPCD. THEN BREAK EXPCD
WED THRU THU BUT WARMING UP AGAIN AHEAD OF CDFNT THAT SHOULD MOVE
OVR CWA THU NGT. THIS FNT COULD BE MORE ACTIVE THAN PREV FCST AS
SIGNS OF FNT SLOWING WITH BTR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...SO WILL ADD
THU NGT TO FRI WITH CHC TSTMS IN CWA. OVERALL COULD END UP ON THE
BUSY SIDE AS VARIOUS RIDGE RIDERS INTRUDE ON TROPICAL UPR RDG INTO
CWA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

BT/RYRHOLM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
119 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-211200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
119 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A SERIES OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PENNY SIZE
HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
ALONG ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES...
HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE 100 TO 105 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
WEST OF INTERSTATE 29...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S
AND DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 70 TO 75 RANGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BE SEVERE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
236 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 PM     HAIL             5 NW RAMONA             44.17N 97.29W
06/20/2005  0.75 INCH        LAKE               SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CJANSEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
252 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0251 PM     HAIL             1 W RAMONA              44.12N 97.24W
06/20/2005  0.88 INCH        LAKE               SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CJANSEN