Flash Flooding and Hail in Minnesota, June 2 to 3, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
320 CDT THU JUN 2 2005

.SHORT...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION. WHEN LOOKING
AT THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN S
SASK...WITH A TROF EXTENDING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG A YBR TO LANGDON
TO GFK LINE. WHEN COMPARING MODELS...MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...SO USED COMPROMISE FOR FORECAST. EDGE OF BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ALONG E EDGE OF RED RIVER VALLEY STARTING TO SEE STRONGER
DEVELOPMENT AS CAP ERODES AND INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SE ND AND
WC MN. WITH LIS ALREADY -2 AND BELOW AND SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE CONTINUING ALONG BOUNDARY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AFTER 00Z...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...EXTENDED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN INTO TONIGHT FOR THE S RED RIVER AND MN
PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR FRI INTO SUN...SW FLOW AT 500MB REMAINS OVER THE AREA...WITH
SURFACE TROF RETROGRADING W THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO W ND. CONSEQUENTLY...KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE S AND E PARTS OF
AREA FOR THE DAY AND RETURNED CHANCE TO NE ND IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW REFORMS IN NE SD ON FRI NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTO INVERTED TROF AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING TOWARDS THE 500MB
LOW WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRI NIGHT AND RETURN IT TO THE DVL AREA FOR SAT. 500MB LOW STARTS
MOVING E SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WITH SURFACE LOW BECOMING STACKED
BENEATH IT AS IT LIFTS INTO CANADA. AS A RESULT...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE ANTICIPATED ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

LONG TERM (MON-THU)...LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE
SCALE FLOW OF W TROUGH/E RIDGE. THERE REMAINS SOME CONFLICT WITH
POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF CERTAIN FEATURES...BUT 00Z/12Z GFS IS A
GOOD COMPROMISE. 500MB RIDGE BEGINNING OF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO
APPROACHING 500MB TROF...SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THUNDER/SHOWER CHANCES WED-THU STILL ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN THREAT TO AVIATION THROUGH FRI MORNING WILL BE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER EAST (BJI)
-TSRA CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...ESF ISSUED THROUGH SATURDAY FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MN...ESF ISSUED THROUGH SATURDAY FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

&&

NG/TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
655 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2005

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-021730-
BARNES ND-BENSON ND-CASS ND-CAVALIER ND-CLAY MN-EAST BECKER MN-
EAST MARSHALL MN-EAST OTTER TAIL MN-EAST POLK MN-
EASTERN WALSH COUNTY ND-EDDY ND-GRAND FORKS ND-GRANT MN-GRIGGS ND-
HUBBARD MN-KITTSON MN-LAKE OF THE WOODS MN-MAHNOMEN MN-NELSON ND-
NORMAN MN-NORTH BELTRAMI MN-NORTH CLEARWATER MN-PEMBINA ND-
PENNINGTON MN-RAMSEY ND-RANSOM ND-RED LAKE MN-RICHLAND ND-ROSEAU MN-
SARGENT ND-SOUTH BELTRAMI MN-SOUTH CLEARWATER MN-STEELE ND-TOWNER ND-
TRAILL ND-WADENA MN-WEST BECKER MN-WEST MARSHALL MN-
WEST OTTER TAIL MN-WEST POLK MN-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY ND-WILKIN MN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEMIDJI...DETROIT LAKES...DEVILS LAKE...
FARGO...FERGUS FALLS...GRAFTON...GRAND FORKS...LANGDON...ROSEAU...
THIEF RIVER FALLS...VALLEY CITY AND WAHPETON
655 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2005

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
FROM 2 PM THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...THEN MOVE INTO
MINNESOTA BY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
MOISTURE AND A SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE TO AID THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS
APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED THOUGH...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY
BECOME SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHERE
STORMS OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

KELLENBENZ