Hail in Minnesota, April 5, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
242 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS STEADILY INCREASED THRU THE AFTN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FA...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NWRD FROM UPPER TROF IN OK PANHANDLE/SW
KS. THIS HAS LIMITED SFC HEATING AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTN.
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S AHEAD OF INVERTED
SFC TROF STRETCHING NEWRD FROM SFC LOW IN SW KS...FROM SLN TO FSD TO
BRD. SFC DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MN...WITH
50S STRETCHING AS FAR NORTH AS MOX AND CBG /UPPER 50S ACROSS S CNTRL
MN/.

A FEW HIGH BASED SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN OVER THE WRN WI
COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH IT IS DOUBTFUL WHETHER ANY PRECIP IS REACHING
THE GROUND /WITH 20 DEG SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS/. THIS SHUD NOT BE
THE CASE...HOWEVER...WITH TONIGHT AND TOMORROWS TSRA/RA ACTIVITY.
AS UPPER TROF OVER THE SRN PLAINS SWEEPS EWRD THIS EVE/OVERNGT...CAA
AT H8 WILL SET IN...HELPING TO WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT
HAS HELPED TO CONTAIN ANY BUDDING CONVECTION THIS AFTN. Q-VECTOR
ANALYSES AT H8-H5 AND H5-H3 INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT
LARGE SCALE FORCING...AND WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE INVERSION...
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY SHUD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME
PRECIP OVERNGT AND INTO WED MORNING. WITH SBCAPES TO APPROX 1500
J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THUNDER
STILL LOOKS LIKELY WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP. BOTH THE
05/12Z NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP AND THE CESSATION OF THE EVENT...WHICH IS APPROX 12
HRS FASTER THAN THE DURATION IN THE INHERITED FCST. TRIMMED POPS
BEGINNING 00Z THU TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

SFC HIGH SLIDES INTO THE FA WED AND INTO WED NGT...WHICH...COMBINED
WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES...WILL DROP TEMPS BACK TO NR NORMAL LEVELS WED
AND INTO THU MORN. WARMING H8 TEMPS ON THU AND FRI WILL RESULT IN
QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS /TO NR 70F IN THE SW ON FRI/.

THANKS TO SURROUNDING WFOS FOR THE COORD.

LONGER TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS RIDGING...SURFACE AND
ALOFT PREVAILS. PACIFIC COOL FRONT STILL PROJECTED BY THE GFS MODEL
TO MOVE INTO MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY AND EXIT OUR FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. THE ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT AND
THERE IS SOME CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE ON PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
DILEMMA REMAINS WITH A SPLIT UPPER FLOW...A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE
ONE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WHICH IS OFTEN NOT FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SO WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MN...NONE.
.WI...NONE.

&&

KAT/WJH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
343 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-061042-
ANOKA-BARRON-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-
DOUGLAS-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-RICE-RUSK-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-ST CROIX-STEARNS-STEELE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-
343 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

KAT