Hail in Minnesota, April 17, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
323 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY FEATURES AFFECTING CWA THRU 72 HOURS WILL BE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACRS CWA THIS EVENING...UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE CNTL HI PLAINS ON MONDAY LATE AFTN
AND NIGHT...AND THEN FRONTAL BNDRY INTO CWA ON TUE AFTN. OVERALL
PATTERN FEATURES RIDGING ALOFT OVR CWA RIGHT NOW WITH YDAYS FRONT
TRYING TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS PRESSURE FALLS INCR TO THE WEST WITH
LARGE UPR TROF OVR NRN ROCKIES. UPR LOW WL DEVELOP AND CLOSE OFF
WITH BLOCKING /REX/ SIGNATURE SEEN ACROSS THE WRN CONUS THRU
SHORT TERM. SPLIT FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
INTO CWA DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE NWRLY STREAM. ALREADY ON PACE FOR
THE WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD AT MSP...AND NEXT TWO DAYS WILL ADD TO
THE LEAD WITH 70S BY DAY AND 50S BY NIGHT /15-20 DEG ABV NORMS/.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
PRETTY STRONG WARM FRONT ACRS SERN SD INTO NRN IA NOW AND MAKING
PROGRESS NWRD DUE TO INCR SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG WAA/THETA-E
ADV IN LLVLS. KARX 88-D AND VIS PIX SHOWING A FEW TOWERS GOING UP
IN THE CU FIELD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND THIS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN
CHANGE IN ATMS OVR THIS BNDRY FROM UPR 60S TO ARND 80 AND FAIRLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE /TDS IN THE UPR 50S/. LAPS INDICATES 500-
1000 J/KG MIXED CAPE VCTY OF THE BNDRY MOVING NORTH INTO CWA...SO
AS LONG AS DIURNAL SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS THERE ALNG BNDRY FEEL
THREAT FOR STORMS WILL EXPAND NORTH INTO FAR SRN MN IN THE NEXT 6
HRS. BROUGHT ISO POPS INTO SRN 3 TIERS OF MN...AND THEN END AS
THINK MOST OF THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL WANE BEFORE ACTIVITY
MAKES IT TOO FAR NORTH. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PULSEY IN
NATURE DUE TO 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20KTS. OTHERWISE...THIS
BAND OF ACCAS/ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
ELEVATED WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND COULD POP AN ISO TSRA...BUT DONT
SEE ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS. BEST SURGE OF DIFF TEMP/THETA-E ADV
OCCURS WEST AND NORTH OF CWA ON NOSE OFF LLJ AND IN AXIS OF
DEVELOPING HOT PROD.

MUCH OF MON MORNING QUIET AS S/W OVR CO MOVES OUT INTO KS/NEB. HI
CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING DAY AS SYS
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST UNDERCUTTING RIDGE. STRONG LL SOUTHERLY FLO
AND H85 TMPS TO 14-15C SHOULD YIELD HIGHS WL INTO 70S. BUT
APPROACHING CLDS MAY TEMPER MAX TS IN THE SOUTH. WL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. DWPTS IN THE MID 50S REMAIN AS SYS INTERACTS WITH THIS
RELATIVELY HI MOISTURE FIELD...SO SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD INCR ACRS
SRN MN AFT 20Z AND CONT TO EXPAND INTO SERN MN AND WRN WI THRU MON
EVE/NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE LOT CONCERN FOR SVR GIVEN MARGINAL
CAPE/SHEAR VALUES...BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME RUMBLERS. WRN MN MAY NOT
SEE MUCH AT ALL AS FOCUS DEF ON SRN/ERN CWA.

THIS SYS SLOWLY CROSSES CWA MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING...SO THERE
SHOULD BE SOME RESIDUAL SHRA/TSRA TUE MORNING OVR WRN WI. SUBTLE
RIDGING IN WAKE OF WAVE MAY ALLOW SKIES TO BRIGHTEN ON TUE AFTN IN
CNTL MN BUT NOT TOO ENTHUSED ABT THIS POSSIBILITY. HOT PROD SHIFTS
EAST AND SOUTH INTO SRN MN/ERN NEB/IA WHILE LO PRES DVLPS IN NERN
NEB. STRONGER FLOW INTO THIS AREA COUPLED WITH INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD YIELD STORMS DVLPNG ALNG BNDRY IN PEAK
HEATING ACRS NEB INTO SD...WHICH SHOULD BUILD NORTHEAST INTO SRN
ON DEVELOPING LLJ IN VRY DIFFLUENT THICKNESS REGIME. BETTER
INSTABILITY/CAPE POOL BUILDS OVR IA/SRN MN WITH ML CAPES INTO THE
1500-2000 J/KG AS DEWPTS INTO THE 60S ON GOOD GULF FEED. THINK AT
LEAST A FEW SVR STORMS POSSIBLE AND THIS MENTIONED ALREADY IN HWO.
EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE IS PERSISTENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING
IN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED UPR JET STREAK WHICH PERSISTS OVR BNDRY
MUCH OF TUE NIGHT. COULD BE SEEING A HEAVY RAIN SIGNATURE IF NAM
FORCING CONT...GIVEN BNDRY/LLJ/UL JET/AND PWS INTO THE 1.3
RANGE. BROUGHT LIKELY POPS ACRS SRN MN IN ANTICIPATION. BNDRY SLOW
TO SINK AWAY FROM CWA GIVEN TROF IN WEST SO KEPT POPS IN SRN MN
INTO WED. MUCH COOLER NELY FLOW SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH RA THREAT SOUTH
DURING IN AFTN.

.LONG TERM...
LEFT IN THE LOW POPS FOR S AREAS THURS AND FRI...BUT MOST RECENT GFS
IS BACKING OFF ON TROFFINESS OVER AREA AND ATTEMPTING TO KEEP AREA
IN COOL NW FLOW. DID LOWER THE TEMPS (ESPECIALLY THE MINS) A BIT FOR
MOST MORNINGS...MAINLY E AREAS FROM EFFECTS OF COOL EAST FLOW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

BINAU/PAULSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1207 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-181113-
ANOKA-BARRON-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-
DOUGLAS-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-RICE-RUSK-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-ST CROIX-STEARNS-STEELE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE-
1207 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...
ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

BINAU