Tornado in Michigan, July 28, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
430 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO DOWN INTO ERN MN HAS KICKED OFF SOME
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING TO THE ERN HALF OF THE U.P. IS OVER LAKE HURON.

NAM SHOWS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE CWA BY 06Z
TONIGHT AND OUT OF THE CWA BY 12Z. NAM ALSO SHOWING 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND BEING
REPLACED BY Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS
EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH DYNAMICS AND COLD AIR ALOFT
HELPING TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING.
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO 50 KT TO WARRANT MENTION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS FOR THIS
EVENING. GOING TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD AND KEPT THE SAME WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE WIND DIES DOWN. ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBILITIES DUE TO RAINFALL FROM EARLIER AND WILL BE A BATTLE
BETWEEN RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WET GROUND WITH DRIER AIR AND SEEMS
LIKE WHEN WE GET RAIN...WE USUALLY GET FOG AFTER THE SKIES CLEAR.

REMOVED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE CWA AS THERE IS SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE I300-I315K SURFACES...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH.

NAM SHOWS MORE 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE CWA
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH GFS SIMILAR. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND SEEMS LIKE BOTH MODELS MIGHT BE SUFFERING SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE ONLY. THEN FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
ARRIVE SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS GOING. FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT
PRETTY MUCH WHAT WAS IN THERE. THIS WAS CLOSE TO ADJENS GUIDANCE AND
ALSO WENT CLOSE TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC FOR
HIGHS.

IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF...UKMET AND GFS ALL SHOW THE 500 MB PATTERN
CONSISTS OF A TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...RIDGING IN THE ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND TROUGHING INTO EASTERN CANADA
00Z MON. SHORTWAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO ERN
CANADA 00Z TUE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND 00Z WED. RIDGING MOVES IN FOR
00Z THU. LOOKS LIKE WESTERLIES ARE ACROSS THE AREA AND LIE ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST TO
THE SOUTH. CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES PRETTY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANGE IS THAT MODELS ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE AND TROUGHING INTO OUR AREA AS THEY WERE BEFORE AND
NOW LOOKS WARMER AGAIN WITH LESS COLD AIR COMING DOWN. WILL GO CLOSE
TO ADJENS TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS AND LOWS AS THESE ARE WARMER THAN
CURRENT FORECAST...BUT NOT REAL WARM AS ADJMEX TEMPERATURES ARE. DO
NOT WANT TO GO TOO GUNG HO ON TEMPERATURES QUITE YET AS THERE WAS
SOME CONSISTENCY BEFORE WITH THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WHICH WOULD
HAVE ALLOWED MORE COLD AIR TO COME DOWN. THIS IS ONE MODEL RUN AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION COME BACK
WITH NEWER MODEL RUNS. WANT TO MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY THOUGH AND
WILL RE-EVALUATE TOMORROW AGAIN TO SEE IF WARMER SOLUTION PREVAILS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MON AND DRY THINGS OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR WED NIGHT AND THU WITH A
WARM FRONT NEAR THE AREA. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
FORECAST OTHER THAN TO WARM THINGS UP A LITTLE.

&&

.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MICHELS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-291200-
ALGER-BARAGA-DELTA-DICKINSON-GOGEBIC-IRON-KEWEENAW-LUCE-MARQUETTE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-ONTONAGON-
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-
415 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER ALL OF WEST
AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EXCEPT FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO A HALF INCH
IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN FOR THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MQT (ALL LOWER CASE)

MICHELS