1 flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 15, 4:21 AM EST, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 421 AM EST TUE FEB 15 2005 .SHORT TERM... THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS... WITH A SHORT WAVE NOTED ACROSS THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER. ANOTHER MORE SHEARED WAVE IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. AT THE SURFACE... LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER... WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWED A FAIRLY STRONG 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO WESTERN IOWA. AN UPPER LEVEL JET WAS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER JET IS INTERACTING WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE MIDWEST... RESULTING IN SOME STRONGLY FORCED FRONTOGENETICAL PRECIPITATION NOW WORKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE DETERMINING WHERE THE STRONGEST MESO SCALE LIFT WILL OCCUR AS THIS WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO OHIO TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THE 850MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE... THERE WILL BE A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL SEND A SURGE OF STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS LIFT WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHWEST US WILL QUICKLY DIVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND HELP AMPLIFY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SEND ADDITIONAL LIFT IN THE FORM OF SOME DCVA OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE UPSTREAM WAS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE... FEEL IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ETA ACTUALLY SHOWS MIXING RATIOS RISING TO AROUND 4G/KG NEAR 850MB BY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT... EXPECT THERE WILL BE A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE BAND... GENERALLY SHOWING IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN DETROIT SUBURBS. HOWEVER... AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN 00Z RUNS WOULD INDICATE. IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE 700-600MB FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT. THEREFORE ANTICIPATING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP TO EXTEND ALL THE WAY UP TO THE I-69 CORRIDOR. PRECIP ALSO APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING EASTWARD MORE QUICKLY THAN THE 00Z MODEL SUITE WOULD INDICATE. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY... SFC TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY RISE INTO THE 40S. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN TO COOL ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z... CHANGING THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR DYNAMIC COOLING LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY FASTER CHANGE OVER. BASED ON THE DEGREE OF LIFT THIS EVENING... WOULD ALMOST ARGUE FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL. HOWEVER... THE GROUND MAY TAKE A WHILE TO COOL... WHICH SHOULD HINDER ACCUMULATIONS A BIT. I WOULD ALSO LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE DEEPER AND STRONGER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ALOFT. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL CUT BACK BOTH POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY DUE TO WEAKER LIFT AND DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME DRYER MID LEVEL AIR. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY TO GET A HANDLE ON EXACTLY WHERE THE STRONGEST FGEN WILL SET UP... AND WHAT LOCATIONS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL ACCUMS. THANKS FOR THE EXTENSIVE COORDINATION... GRR... IWX AND CLE. && .LONG TERM... WE RETURN TO A COLDER PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF WINTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS THE WAVE FROM TONIGHT HELPS TO CARVE OUT A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. GOOD SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THIS INITIAL WAVE...WITH PLAN VIEWS/TIME SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY STRIPPING AWAY. LOW-LEVELS REMAIN RATHER SATURATED...INDICATED BY SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM/GFS. GFS A BIT COLDER THAN THE NAM...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLUTION GIVEN A BETTER THERMAL INITIALIZATION UPSTREAM. THIS SOLUTION IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION. DEEP MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT ARE LACKING... AND BETTER LAKE EFFECT IS YET TO SETUP. HOWEVER WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL JUST MENTION FLURRIES. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS DOWN THE BACK OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...WITH STEADY COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING AS WELL. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY EVENING...WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -19C. NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW A DECENT SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT...BUT THE NORTHWESTERLY FETCH IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH FOR THURSDAY...AND WHILE THERE IS NOT MUCH SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT...IT DOES HELP TO LIFT INVERSION HEIGHTS A BIT. IT ALSO HELPS TO ENHANCE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AGGREGATE...WITH WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA BACKING MORE SOUTH OF WEST. THIS LEADS TO A DECENT AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OFF SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN I-94 BAND TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN CWA. WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY...REFLECTING A HIGHER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD. WEAK GRADIENT AS WELL THURSDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME FRESH SNOW COVER WILL LEAD TO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BOTH PERIODS. WITH STEADY COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...COULD EVEN SEE IT ENDING UP COLDER THAN THE LOW-MID 20S IN THE GRIDS. BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING INDICATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN THE THURSDAY SHORTWAVE AND THE NEXT ONE SWINGING OUT OF ALBERTA. GFS HAS SHOWN A STEADY WESTWARD TREND WITH THIS CLIPPER OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EXTENDED MODELS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A WEAK SURFACE WAVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AROUND 00Z SATURDAY. WILL ADJUST PRECIP WORDING TO REFLECT SNOW ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL KEEPING A LOW CHANCE POP GIVEN TIMING AS WELL AS TRACK UNCERTAINTY. IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT...WE COULD SEE A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. EASTERN TROUGH AXIS DAMPENS AND SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...WITH HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS/GREAT LAKES. BROAD SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. HIGH SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE SHOWN A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE TRACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION... ISSED AT 1145 PM ON THE 14TH. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR AVIATION INTERESTS HAS THE CURRENT MVFR CLOUD DECK GIVING WAY FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE BEHIND VFR SKIES AND PATHCY MVFR FOG AROUND THE AREA BY SUNRISE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND DETROIT WHERE MVFR CLOUDS AND VISIBILITY COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH TOWARD FLINT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TOWARD SUNSET. MVFR CLOUDS WILL WORK INTO THE TRI CITIES AREA FROM NORTHERN LOWER AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST WEATHER DATA IS BEING ANALYZED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF IFR OR LIFR CLOUDS AND SNOW AROUND DETROIT AND FLINT DURING THE TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. FOR NOW WE HAVE A CHANCE OF IFR SNOW AND CLOUDS AROUND DETROIT AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MI...NONE. .LAKE HURON...NONE. .LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. .MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && CONSIDINE/BRAVENDER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 514 AM EST TUE FEB 15 2005 MIZ055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-161200- GENESEE MI-LAPEER MI-LENAWEE MI-LIVINGSTON MI-MACOMB MI-MONROE MI- OAKLAND MI-SANILAC MI-SHIAWASSEE MI-ST. CLAIR MI-WASHTENAW MI- WAYNE MI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ADRIAN...ANN ARBOR...DOWNTOWN DETROIT... FLINT...HOWELL...LAPEER...MONROE...MOUNT CLEMENS...OWOSSO... PONTIAC...PORT HURON AND SANDUSKY 514 AM EST TUE FEB 15 2005 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO OHIO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP CREATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WHICH WILL CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO ALL SNOW. THIS CHANGE OVER IS EXPECTED AROUND THE FLINT AREA AROUND 5 PM... THE NORTHERN DETROIT SUBURBS AROUND 7 PM AND THE CITY OF DETROIT AROUND 9 PM. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO RECEIVE UP TO 6 INCHES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL ALSO DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TIMING AT WHICH THE RAIN CHANGES OVER. .DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER... SPOTTER SNOWFALL REPORTS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT. MIZ047>049-053-054-161200- BAY MI-HURON MI-MIDLAND MI-SAGINAW MI-TUSCOLA MI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE...BAY CITY...CARO... MIDLAND AND SAGINAW 514 AM EST TUE FEB 15 2005 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT... WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO OHIO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP CREATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ANY RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW BY 2 PM... THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY EVENING. .DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER... SPOTTER SNOWFALL REPORTS WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT. LCZ423-460-LEZ444-LHZ421-422-441>443-462>464-151200-LAKE HURON-SAGINAW BAY-LAKE HURON NEARSHORE FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON-ST CLAIR RIVER-LAKE ST CLAIR-DETROIT RIVER-MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE- 514 AM EST TUE FEB 15 2005 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SAGINAW BAY...SOUTHERN LAKE HURON...THE ST CLAIR RIVER...LAKE ST CLAIR...THE DETROIT RIVER...AND THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONSIDINE
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The River Raisin at Monroe went above its 9 foot flood stage at 6 am EST on the 15th. The river crested at 10.81 feet at 555 pm EST on the 15th, then fell back below its flood stage at 11 am EST on the 16th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2005Every state in 2005This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, February 2005
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5437672.