Damaging Wind in Louisiana, November 15, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1059 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA AS OF LATE MORNING.
LINE OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIES FRONT AT THIS TIME WITH ANOTHER LINE
CONTINUING TO FILL IN AHEAD OF FRONT. DRY AIR ADVECTION IN LOWER
LEVELS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE HAMPERING
DEVELOPMENT. BEST AREA FOR STRONG CONVECTION MAY BE AHEAD OF
FRONT...WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN NORTH LOUISIANA.

NO CHANGES TO ZONES AT THIS TIME...BUT AS FRONT MOVES EAST IN NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...MAY CLEAR SOME ZONES FROM TORNADO WATCH
AND DROP POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  40  55  32 /  60  30   0   0
MLU  81  41  54  32 /  60  50   0   0
DEQ  76  34  53  31 /  60  10   0   0
TXK  80  38  55  31 /  60  10   0   0
ELD  80  39  55  31 /  60  30   0   0
TYR  80  36  57  32 /  60  20   0   0
GGG  81  37  56  32 /  60  20   0   0
LFK  82  40  58  32 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLUMBIA...HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LAFAYETTE...
     LITTLE RIVER...MILLER...NEVADA...SEVIER...AND UNION AR.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES:
     BIENVILLE...BOSSIER...CADDO...CALDWELL...CLAIBORNE...
     DE SOTO...GRANT...JACKSON...LA SALLE...LINCOLN...
     NATCHITOCHES...OUACHITA...RED RIVER...SABINE LA...
     UNION LA...WEBSTER...AND WINN.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND MCCURTAIN.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES:
     ANGELINA...BOWIE...CAMP...CASS...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...GREGG...
     HARRISON...MARION...MORRIS...NACOGDOCHES...PANOLA...
     RED RIVER...RUSK...SABINE TX...SAN AUGUSTINE...SHELBY...
     SMITH...TITUS...UPSHUR...AND WOOD.

&&

14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
600 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-151800-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
600 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE GULF MOISTURE...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER TROUGH...DISTURBANCES ALOFT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION...AND A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEFORE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING...
THEN WITH THE FRONT...A BAND OF RAPID MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
EAST. DUE TO THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE THREATENING. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DECREASING DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE GREATER
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...AND ALONG
AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI...AND TENNESSEE. THIS
DOES NOT MEAN THAT PARTS OF THE EAST TEXAS AND TOLEDO BEND
LAKES AREA WILL NOT SEE SEVERE WEATHER...THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AND INCREASING TO THE NORTHEAST TO A MODERATE
RISK FOR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST REQUEST
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING.

06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
134 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 S SHREVEPORT          32.36N 93.80W
11/15/2005                   CADDO              LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FEW TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN SOUTH SHREVEPORT

&&

03

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