Hail in Louisiana, March 31, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
709 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

.NEW DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #116 REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL MIDNIGHT WHICH INCLUDES AVOYELLES AND SAINT LANDRY PARISHES.
NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #117 UPCOMING WHICH INCLUDES THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. UPDATED ZONES COMING SHORTLY.

&&

MARCOTTE

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEAR TERM CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

20Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACED STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING EAST TO
WEST JUST NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...WITH TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDING
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH EAST TEXAS. SATELLITE/KLCH 88D RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWING ONE OR MORE EAST WEST ORIENTED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
JUST SOUTH OF KLCH.

WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...AGREE WITH SPC THAT MAIN SEVERE
THREAT LIES CLOSER TO STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AS SFC
CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER EAST TX AND LIFTS NE TONIGHT. 18Z KLCH
SOUNDING SHOWED A PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE INVERSION NEAR 825MB
WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ABOVE IT.  RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT INHIBITION HAS ERODED CONSIDERABLY FROM 18Z...
BUT AS OF YET 88D RETURNS WOULD INDICATE THAT WHAT REMAINS IS
IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH.  STILL HAVE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS TO
GET SOMETHING GOING...BUT IF IT DOESNT HAPPEN BY THEN...WELL
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LIFT ASSOC WITH UPPER TROF INITIATES STORMS
IN EASTERN TEXAS...WHICH PROPAGATIONAL VECTORS THEN SUGGEST WOULD
MOVE EASTWARD.

COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING EASTERN PART OF CWA FRIDAY MORNING...
WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THIS AREA.  STOUT NORTHERLY
FLOW AND CAA WILL BE THE RULE...WITH CLOUD COVER FURTHER
INHIBITING MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE INCREASE.  WILL AIM HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY...BUT
SHOULD NOT COMPLETELY BOTTOM OUT WITH NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO
NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH.

TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL BECOME NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY WARM ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES STARTING
SUNDAY.  FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...INGREDIENTS FOR COOLEST NIGHT OF
FORECAST COME TOGETHER AS SFC HIGH SETTLES IN...WITH RESULTING LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKY COMBINED WITH COOL AND DRY POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS POINTING TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT.

FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...EXTENDED RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROF DIGGING
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MID WEEK.  CURRENT FORECAST OF CLIMO TEMPS
AND A CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TUE AND WED STILL LOOKS
GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...CHANCE OF THUDNERSTORMS TONIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z
TO 18Z.  VFR CIGS DECREASING TO MVR THIS EVENING AND IFR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEA FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER
THE WESTERN WATERS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND EXIT
THE EASTERN WATERS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR LATE
FRIDAY AS NORTH WINDS STEADILY INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  70  48  73 /  40  20   0   0
KBPT  58  70  47  73 /  40   0   0   0
KAEX  59  65  44  66 /  70  20   0   0
KLFT  63  68  48  68 /  70  40   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT LAZ027>033.
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT TXZ180>183.

&&

13/MARCOTTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
512 AM CST THU MAR 31 2005

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-011200-
ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-CAMERON-EVANGELINE-
HARDIN-IBERIA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-NEWTON-ORANGE-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-ST. MARY-TYLER-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-VERNON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODVILLE...PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE...
NEWTON...KOUNTZE...JASPER...BEAUMONT...STEPHENSVILLE...OBERLIN...
ABBEVILLE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...
MARKSVILLE...LEESVILLE...LAKE CHARLES...LAFAYETTE...JENNINGS...
DERIDDER...CROWLEY...CAMERON AND ALEXANDRIA

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MID MORNING. SPC HAS PLACED
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA IN A MODERATE RISK OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR MAINLY CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE WITH TIME
AND A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS, HAM RADIO OPERATORS, AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY
BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
612 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-010100-
ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-CAMERON-EVANGELINE-
IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-
ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-VERNON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OBERLIN...ABBEVILLE...VILLE PLATTE...
OPELOUSAS...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...MARKSVILLE...LEESVILLE...
LAKE CHARLES...LAFAYETTE...JENNINGS...DERIDDER...CROWLEY...
CAMERON AND ALEXANDRIA

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 116 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE WATCH AREA INCLUDES
AVOYELLES AND SAINT LANDRY PARISHES.

RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF SAINT LANDRY PARISHES. THESE SHOWERS ARE PART
OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH IS MOVING TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST 20 MPH. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY INDICATED
ON RADAR. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE BUNKIE AREA
OF SOUTHERN AVOYELLES PARISH BY 7 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 116 REPLACES SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH NUMBER 114.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
713 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     HAIL             NE VILLE PLATTE         30.69N 92.28W
03/31/2005  1.00 INCH        EVANGELINE         LA   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY MEDIA.

&&

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
719 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     HAIL             VILLE PLATTE            30.69N 92.28W
03/31/2005  1.00 INCH        EVANGELINE         LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            EVANGELINE PARISH 911 CENTER REPORTS QUARTER TO
            FIFTY-CENT-PIECE SIZE HAIL AT VILLE PLATTE.

&&

LS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
719 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

TIME OF REPORT CORRECTED...

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 PM     HAIL             VILLE PLATTE            30.69N 92.28W
03/31/2005  1.00 INCH        EVANGELINE         LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            EVANGELINE PARISH 911 CENTER REPORTS QUARTER TO
            FIFTY-CENT-PIECE SIZE HAIL AT VILLE PLATTE.

&&

LS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
724 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             VILLE PLATTE            30.69N 92.28W
03/31/2005  1.75 INCH        EVANGELINE         LA   PUBLIC

&&

13

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