Flash Flood in Louisiana, August 15, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
230 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT...EXTENDING
FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS IN TEXAS TO NE OK...AND CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SEABREEZE CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING SINCE THE DAY BEGAN.
KSHV 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST COLUMN...EVEN IN THE PBL...W/PWATS
IN EXCESS OF 2 IN.  THUS...EXPECTING ONLY GOOD RAINS FROM THIS
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...MODELS DON/T MOVE THE FRONT UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE UPPER CONUS...AND PUSHES IT
THROUGH. W/THE SEABREEZE EXPECTED THROUGH THEN...WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN SE OK
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.  TUESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY LOW LEFT FLOW
RESUMES UNDER BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...W/PLENTY OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER US.  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY...BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
BRINGING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...ALBEIT W/NOT
MUCH COOLING BEHIND. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY IN THIS PATTERN...AND
LARGELY DICTATED BY VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY...BUT
H85 TEMP TRENDS SUGGEST THEY WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  94  73  94 /  20  30  20  20
MLU  71  94  72  92 /  20  30  20  20
DEQ  73  88  71  90 /  30  30  20  20
TXK  74  92  74  93 /  20  30  20  20
ELD  73  92  73  91 /  20  30  20  20
TYR  75  91  76  93 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  74  93  74  93 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  74  92  75  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

17/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-161100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING OVER ALL OF THE FOUR STATE REGION.  THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...ATOP A STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE.  OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND MOVE NORTH INTO EAST TEXAS
AND NORTH LOUISIANA IN RESPONSE TO THE SEABREEZE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE...
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
MAY FLOOD LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.  THESE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.  SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
ISOLATED WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
334 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S MAGNOLIA            33.20N 93.24W
08/15/2005                   COLUMBIA           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ACROSS ROAD

&&

03