Hail in Louisiana, April 1, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
915 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ATTM.  STORMS ARE CURRENTLY IN AREA OF BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY.  RUC MODEL SHOWS THAT AS SFC LOW
ORGANIZES OVER CENTRAL LA AFTER MIDNIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
DRAMATICALLY INCREASE AND CAUSE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS SRN
2/3 OF FORECAST AREA. COMBINED WITH AREA GETTING INTO RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET PROGRESSING ACROSS LOWER OHIO VALLEY...DYNAMICS
WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR EXPANDING CONVECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  ADDITIONALLY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS S/WV ROTATING UP OUT OF
THE NW GULF WHICH WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT.

THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL QUITE HIGH OVER ABOUT SRN
1/2 OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. INSTABILITY NOT MUCH IN QUESTION AS
MODELS AGREE ON MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1500 TO 2500 J/KG FROM THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND IMPRESSIVE NATURE OF STORMS TO S AND W OF AREA
SHOWS JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. QUESTION IS WHETHER
CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED OR ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
THEREBY WHAT THE ASSOCIATED TORNADIC THREAT WILL BE. SPC HAS PLACED
AREA FROM AEX TO JAN IN AN ENHANCED TORNADIC THREAT OVERNIGHT...WITH
A HATCHED AREA INDICATING THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES. THIS SEEMS
TO BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT BASED ON HOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVOLVES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF PRECIPITATION BECOMES WIDESPREAD
ALONG AND NORTH OF RETRETATING WARM FRONT...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND KEEP CONVECTION
ELEVATED...REDUCING TORNADIC THREAT. HOWEVER...IF MOST OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING FROM THE
SW AND W...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT TEMPERATURES AROUND 70F
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WOULD KEEP STORMS ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST TO INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT...THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED TORNADIC
THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL BE MONITORING EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE
TRENDS VERY CLOSELY NEXT FEW HOURS TO KEEP ON TOP OF THIS THREAT.
FOR THE DELTA...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...BUT SUPERCELLS
DEVELOPING IN ARKLATEX REGION WILL LIFT NE WITH AN ASSOCIATED HAIL
THREAT...AS WELL AS HIGH WIND RISK DUE TO DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER.
COORDINATED WITH SPC...AND FUTURE WATCHES LIKELY TO BE TORNADO
WATCHES.

FLASH FLOODING OBVIOUSLY A MAJOR CONCERN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE
SE AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES WHICH WERE HIT HARD OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
WHILE SOMEWHAT CONTAMINATED BY HAIL...HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF AT
LEAST AN INCH PER HOUR ARE BEING OBSERVED WITH STORMS IN SRN
AREAS...AND FFG INDICATES THAT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A PROBLEM IN
THE SE COUNTIES WITH RATES AT THESE LEVELS. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO AREA OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANDING FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN WATCH AREA. RUC IS SLOWER WITH MOVEMENT OF SFC LOW...MORE
LIKE 18Z NAM...WHICH IF CORRECT COULD LEAD TO A MORE PROLONGED RISK
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SE ZONES.

ONE FINAL NOTE...JAN DEWPOINT HAS COME UP 7 DEGREES IN THE LAST 45
MINUTES AS SURFACE WIND VEERS TO EAST SOUTHEAST.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR MSZ031-MSZ038-MSZ039-
     MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-MSZ046-MSZ048-MSZ049-MSZ050-MSZ051-
     MSZ052-MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ055-MSZ056-MSZ057-MSZ058-MSZ059-
     MSZ060-MSZ061-MSZ062-MSZ063-MSZ064-MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-
     MSZ073-MSZ074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

08/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1029 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
012046-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
1029 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BASTROP TO
YAZOO CITY TO CARTHAGE TO COLUMBUS.  ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER AREAS NORTH OF THIS LINE. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY.
THE RISK OF TORNADOES WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE DEEPEST SURFACE BASED
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...AS OPPOSED TO ELEVATED MOISTURE LAYERS
WHICH WOULD PREVENT TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT. INTENSE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AREAS SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO TO JACKSON TO
DEKALB...WILL SEE THE BEST RISK OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.

NORTH OF WHERE THE FRONT REACHES...THE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS
GREAT BUT SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.   THESE STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED AND DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE THE LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS COULD BECOME A THREAT AS THE DRIER AIR NORTH
OF THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AND STRENGTHENS THE
DOWNDRAFTS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT OVER THE SAME
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WERE HIT EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE TRACKS OF THESE STORMS COULD TEND TO AFFECT INDIVIDUAL
LOCATIONS MULTIPLE TIMES...WHICH MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 3 TO 5 INCHES.

WITH AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND STREAMS AND CREEKS
SWOLLEN...RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT APPROACH AN INCH AN HOUR WILL
HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COUNTIES COVINGTON AND
JEFFERSON DAVIS WHERE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL BE
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND WILL POSSIBLY BE
ABLE TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE GROUND AS OCCASIONAL GUSTS	DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.  A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY
BE NEEDED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN A WIND ADVISORY NEEDED IN
THE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
GUSTY WINDS NEAR 25 TO 30 MPH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT.	BY THIS TIME WINDS WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FINALLY START TO DROP OFF.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND SEND A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION.
THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SQUALL LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE
STORMS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...HAM RADIO
OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS IS NEEDED  TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS IS NOT EXPECTED
AGAIN UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1234 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 AM     HAIL             5 S BRANDON             32.21N 90.00W
04/01/2005  0.25 INCH        RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

AEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1251 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 AM     HAIL             NE HATTIESBURG          31.31N 89.31W
04/01/2005  0.50 INCH        FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZED HAIL IN THE MACEDONIA COMMUNITY

1242 AM     HAIL             CAMP SHELBY             31.18N 89.25W
04/01/2005  0.75 INCH        FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

1105 PM     HAIL             PURVIS                  31.14N 89.41W
03/31/2005  1.00 INCH        LAMAR              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZED FROM LAMAR
            COUNTY.

&&

AEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1258 AM CST FRI APR 01 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1136 PM     HAIL             BASTROP                 32.77N 91.91W
03/31/2005  1.75 INCH        MOREHOUSE          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY BASTROP PD.

&&

AEG