Hail in Kentucky, August 14, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL AREAS EXPERIENCED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PIKE COUNTY HAD A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTY AND
RECEIVED NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND HAD SOME TREE LIMBS KNOCKED DOWN. A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND MANAGED
TO GET ABOUT HALF WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT 1020 PM EDT...THE
LINE EXTENDED FROM BREATHITT COUNTY TO BELL COUNTY. THESE STORMS
WERE STRONG...BUT DID NOT PRODUCE ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS.
ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SEVERE WATCH BOX THAT WAS ISSUED
BY SPC. THIS LINE SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THIS AREA BY LATE MORNING.
THIS TIMING IS GOOD...BECAUSE IT IS NOT AT THE PEAK HEATING TIME.
THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ALSO BEEN MODIFIED SOME BY THE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SO BY THE TIME THAT THIS LINE
GET TO THE JACKSON CWA...IT DOES NOT POSE MUCH OF A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. LOOK FOR PATCH FOG FORMING AGAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED SOME RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

300 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE SERN US. THE WESTERLIES OVER SRN CANADA HOWEVER ARE
PUSHING SHORTWAVES ACROSS...EACH ONE PUTTING A FURTHER DENT ON THE
UPPER RIDGE. ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE UP OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL
SWEEP SE EARLY THIS WEEK. WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL STAY WELL N OF THE
BORDER...IT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO FORCE A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY OVER AND POSSIBLY TO THE S OF
EASTERN KY. THIS COULD ALL RESULT IN A COUPLE DAYS OF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...A FEW SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THRU SUNSET. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/S PROXIMITY
TO THE AREA WILL JUSTIFY AT LEAST CHANCE POPS THRU THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY ON MON WITH
FRONT OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCES. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A FAIRLY
VIGOROUS VORT MAX THRU DURING THE DAY ON TUE AND FRONT CONTINUES TO
LIE OVER THE AREA SO POPS WERE INCREASED HERE AS WELL. THRU
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED NOT TO GO AS HIGH AS
GUIDANCE YET WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN VORT TIMING AND FRONTAL
PLACEMENT.

HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAV MOS TEMP GUIDANCE PRETTY CLOSELY THRU
THE SHORT TERM. MAX TEMPS COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S DUE TO THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY
MUGGY WITH VERY LITTLE OVERALL AIRMASS CHANGE EXCEPT MAYBE SOME
DRIER AIR SNEAKING IN OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS BY TUE NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BE IN OR JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS DISPLAYING SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF ITS PROGRESSION BEFORE
STALLING. THE END OF THE ETA RUN AT 84 HR (12Z THU) SHOWS MORE
SOUTHWARD PUSH THAN THE GFS. BEYOND THIS...THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH OF THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY. THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DETERMINE
THE EVENTUAL POP FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE USED AROUND 30
PERCENT. IF THE FRONT MAKES IT TO OUR SOUTH...THIS WOULD LIKELY GO
LOWER. IF IT STALLS OVER US...IT COULD EASILY GO HIGHER. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN IS ON THU AS THE FRONT HEADS BACK NORTH...AND HAVE
USED 50 PERCENT.

AS IF THIS WERE NOT ENOUGH...THE GFS IS SHOWING LARGE RUN TO
RUN DISCREPANCIES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD INVOLVING A POTENTIAL
COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND. THE 00Z RUN STOPS THE FRONT BEFORE IT GETS
TO KY...WHILE THE 12Z RUN TAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST AND
CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE FROM 00Z SHOWS A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND THAN THE
OPERATION RUN...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THAN
THE OPERATIONAL RUN. HAVE LEANED IN THE DIRECTION OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY USING ONLY 20% POPS AFTER SAT NIGHT. HAVE ALSO GONE A
COUPLE DEGREES UNDER MOS FOR SUNDAY. IF IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT A
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INDEED OCCUR...THE POPS AND POSSIBLY TEMPS
WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED A BIT MORE FOR SUNDAY.

1050 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE HAND ANALYSIS REVEAL
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SCREAMING EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KY LATE THIS
MORNING. BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES IN THE CWA ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY
WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH CAPES OF 2000 J/KG OR GREATER. SPC HAS WRN
PART OF CWA IN A SLGT RISK OF SEVERE AND DON/T DOUBT THAT ONE BIT.

UPDATE IS FORTHCOMING WITH SOME TWEAKING OF THE TEMPS. BLUEGRASS
AREA AND SOUTHWEST TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH CLOUDS/SHRA HITTING THEM
FIRST. CENTRAL PART OF AREA...INCLUDING JACKSON AND HAZARD...WILL BE
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO AROUND 90. SOUTHEASTERN BORDER COUNTIES WHERE
CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WILL BE LOWERED INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S. ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO ZONES IS TO REMOVE MORNING FOG
WORDING.

UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND WEB PRODUCTS ARE ON THE WAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

JACOBSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
607 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-151100-
BATH-BELL-BREATHITT-CLAY-ELLIOTT-ESTILL-FLEMING-FLOYD-HARLAN-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-KNOTT-KNOX-LAUREL-LEE-LESLIE-LETCHER-MAGOFFIN-MARTIN-
MCCREARY-MENIFEE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWSLEY-PERRY-PIKE-POWELL-PULASKI-
ROCKCASTLE-ROWAN-WAYNE-WHITLEY-WOLFE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARBOURVILLE...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE...
CAMPTON...FLEMINGSBURG...FRENCHBURG...HARLAN...HAZARD...HINDMAN...
HYDEN...INEZ...IRVINE...JACKSON...LONDON...MANCHESTER...MCKEE...
MIDDLESBORO...MONTICELLO...MOREHEAD...MOUNT STERLING...
MOUNT VERNON...OWINGSVILLE...PAINTSVILLE...PIKEVILLE...PINEVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...SALYERSVILLE...SANDY HOOK...SOMERSET...STANTON...
WEST LIBERTY...WHITESBURG...WHITLEY CITY AND WILLIAMSBURG
607 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY PRODUCE SOME NUISANCE FLOODING.

HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE AROUND 95 FOR A FEW HOURS IN MANY LOCATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL ANY ANY STORM REPORTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

JM