Flood in Kentucky, April 30, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1057 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING DUE TO HYDRO PROBLEMS. COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED ACROSS OR THROUGH THE WESTERN THIRD OF OUR CWA.
TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO RISE AT ALL WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
NOW COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO DROP IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...NEARLY
STEADY IN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS AND POSSIBLY A SLIGHT RISE IN THE
SOUTHEAST UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES COMPLETELY THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING...AND TO MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO ISC GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATED ZONES...PFM...
AFM...ETC. OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

503 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS THE CWA SINCE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND A STRONG LLJ TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO EASTERN KY.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEAR TERM. ALOFT...CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE PULLS NORTHEAST AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS
LINGERING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. WENT BELOW MOS TODAY FOR HIGHS.
THICK CLOUD COVER...RAIN SHOWERS...NWLY FLOW AND CAA SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT RISE.

HIGH PRESSURES BUILD TO THE WEST TONIGHT. MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS
HOW DENSE AND WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION WILL BE...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS IN
THE VALLEYS. WENT WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR NOW...SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE CONDITIONS TO DETERMINE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS NEEDED.

NAM AND GFS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MOS SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE NAM AND LEAVE OUT POPS FOR NOW. THE BEST LIFT IS TO THE NORTH.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.

357 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2005

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NITE)...
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. SRN COUNTIES ARE
SOAKED AND FFG VALUES ARE AROUND 1/2 TO 2/3 INCH IN 1 HR WHICH COULD
OCCUR WITH AN INDIVIDUAL STORM. FFA ISSUED FOR THE SRN 2/3 OF CWFA
UNTIL 8 AM SAT MORN. BY THAT TIME THE COLD FNT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH
AND ADDITIONAL THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL END. EXPECT AN EARLY HIGH
TEMP ON SAT WITH STEADILY FALLING TEMPS AFTER 10 AM.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE EARLY FEATURES
FOR OUR CWFA. HOWEVER THE GFS LOOKS TO HAVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AND
HAVE OPTED TO USE NAM/HPC QPF THRU SAT AFTN. THEN A BREAK IN PCPN
WITH A CHANCE TO START THE DRYING PROCESS.

EXTENDED (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
FOR THE EXTENDED THE MODELS ARE NOT MUCH BETTER IN CONVERGING ON ANY
PARTICULAR SOLUTIONS THAN YESTERDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...CONFIDENCE IS
STILL VERY LOW IN THIS PKG. HOWEVER...THERE WERE SOME CHANGES IN THE
EXTENDED BASED ON SOME SUBTLETIES IN THE RUNS...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY
SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE GFS. IN GENERAL THE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES
MORE ACTIVE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...GFS SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF OUR AREA...ONLY BRUSHING
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE AN OCCASIONAL CHANCE OF RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS
ALSO PUTS OUR AREA IN THE COOL SECTOR OF THE STORM TRACK...AND
GENERALLY TRENDED TEMPS DOWN IN THE EXTENDED AS A RESULT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

RAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
513 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-011100-
BATH-BELL-BREATHITT-CLAY-ELLIOTT-ESTILL-FLEMING-FLOYD-HARLAN-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-KNOTT-KNOX-LAUREL-LEE-LESLIE-LETCHER-MAGOFFIN-MARTIN-
MCCREARY-MENIFEE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWSLEY-PERRY-PIKE-POWELL-PULASKI-
ROCKCASTLE-ROWAN-WAYNE-WHITLEY-WOLFE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARBOURVILLE...BEATTYVILLE...BOONEVILLE...
CAMPTON...FLEMINGSBURG...FRENCHBURG...HARLAN...HAZARD...HINDMAN...
HYDEN...INEZ...IRVINE...JACKSON...LONDON...MANCHESTER...MCKEE...
MIDDLESBORO...MONTICELLO...MOREHEAD...MOUNT STERLING...
MOUNT VERNON...OWINGSVILLE...PAINTSVILLE...PIKEVILLE...PINEVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...SALYERSVILLE...SANDY HOOK...SOMERSET...STANTON...
WEST LIBERTY...WHITESBURG...WHITLEY CITY AND WILLIAMSBURG
513 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

EVEN THOUGH RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING...RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW STREAMS AND CREEKS TO REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND FLASH FLOODING
IS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN...RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I 64 ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
749 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 AM     FLASH FLOOD      KRYPTON                 37.31N 83.34W
04/30/2005                   PERRY              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            JUNCTION OF HWY 451 AND DEVIL SKULL ROAD CLOSED DUE TO
            HIGH WATER.

&&

CPIEPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
848 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     FLOOD            4 E STANTON             37.85N 83.78W
04/30/2005                   POWELL             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT HIGHWAY 15
            BETWEEN STANTON AND SLADE IS STILL CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
            WATER. ALSO...A STALLED CAR WAS BEING PULLED OUT OF THE
            HIGH WATER. THREE TREES WERE DOWN ACROSS THE RAOD AS WELL
            DUE TO A MUD SLIDE.

&&

RAY