Flash Flood in Kansas, May 12, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
237 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

...DISCUSSION...

WATCHING STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. LOOKING FOR THOSE STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. A NEARLY
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. INSTABILITY INDICIES INDICATE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN THE
AREA SUGGEST LOCALLY ENHANCED HELICITY AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.
ALSO LOOKING AT ANOTHER BATCH OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALL THIS ACTIVITY MAY MERGE INTO A FAIRLY
LARGE MCS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SOUTH OF
THE NEARLY STATIONARY/WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...DEW
POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT...SO THAT AREA MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
OVERNIGHT BEFORE GETTING ANY PRECIP.

EXPECTING THE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...PUSHING THE PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT. WILL BUMP UP POPS ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. STILL THINKING THE RAIN WILL END
FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.

COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...KNOCKING TEMPS DOWN TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND..MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
BACK OVER THE REGION.

NRR

.PREV DISCUSSION...

430 AM THU...
HEAVY RAINS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS
TODAY INTO FRIDAY. RATHER COMPLEX SET UP DUE TO OLD BOUNDARY LEFT
OVER FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS...ANY NEW OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED
FROM TODAYS ACTIVITY AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LIES FROM SOUTHERN IL THROUGH CENTRAL MO TO A LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NE. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE
CONCERNS COOLER/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM IL WILL BE TOO DEEP TO ERODE
OVER NORTHEAST MO.

NAM/GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN VERY SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION TODAY
ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS IN RESPONSE
TO UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ENHANCED THETAE AXIS WILL HELP FOCUS STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN KS AND NORTHWEST MO. THE MODELS ALL APPEAR TO LATCH
ONTO A WEAK VORTICITY MAX OR VORTICITY LOBE HEADING NORTHEAST OUT OF
TX...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY BUT NOWHERE AS STRONG. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY HINTS AT A FEATURE BUT DIFFICULT TO TRACK. RADAR LOOPS
SHOW A COUPLE BANDS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KS AND NORTHWEST MO WITH A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF STORMS WITH THE
COLD FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. COLD FRONT IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
BUT ALL MODELS BASICALLY STOP ITS EASTWARD PUSH VERY SOON AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE UNCAPPED THIS
AFTERNOON SO THE ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ROOTED
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES. MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE FROM HAIL
AND WIND AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE LINEAR STRUCTURE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ALONG/NORTH OF QUASISTATIONARY
BOUNDARY.

AIRMASS HAS TEMPORARILY STABILIZED DUE TO PRONOUNCED EASTERLY FLOW
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS ATTESTS TO THE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO A MAJOR BUST
TEMPERATURE WISE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST MO WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
LAST TO CLEAR OUT. HAVE STARTED TO PARE BACK HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN
MO. RIGHT REAR QUAD/ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET IS FORECAST
TO PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND STRENGTHENING 850MB JET IN RESPONSE TO
LIFT GENERATED FROM UPPER THE UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX SHOULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY STORMS. RIGHT REAR QUAD IS FORECAST TO
LINGER ACROSS MO THROUGH TOMORROW SO WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN HIGH
POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CRAP SHOOT BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR
     MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ011-MOZ012-
     MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ022-MOZ028-MOZ029-
     MOZ030-MOZ037-MOZ038.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR KSZ025-KSZ102-KSZ103-
     KSZ104-KSZ105.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
102 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-131815-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-
SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-
CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-
JOHNSON-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
102 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH THE EVENING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES
FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY FAVOR STORMS WHICH
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW
TORNADOES TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE COLD FRONT WILL
EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING AND WITH IT THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE ON FRIDAY.

NRR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
453 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

MOZ001-002-011-122300-
ATCHISON-HOLT-NODAWAY-
453 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NODAWAY...NORTHERN HOLT AND
SOUTHEASTERN ATCHISON COUNTIES...

AT 448 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FALLS CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR CRAIG BY 500 PM CDT.
  NEAR QUITMAN BY 515 PM CDT.
  NEAR BURLINGTON JCT BY 520 PM CDT.
  NEAR PICKERING BY 525 PM CDT.
  NEAR HOPKINS BY 535 PM CDT.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

SEAMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
523 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             5 W CLARK               39.28N 92.43W
05/11/2005  1.00 INCH        RANDOLPH           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

HUDSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
531 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

MOZ001-002-122330-
ATCHISON-NODAWAY-
531 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN ATCHISON AND NODAWAY
COUNTIES...

AT 525 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF
FAIRFAX TO FORTESCUE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ROCKPORT TO 15 MILES EAST OF FALLS CITY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR ELMO BY 550 PM CDT.
  NEAR SKIDMORE BY 555 PM CDT.
  NEAR GUILFORD BY 600 PM CDT.
  NEAR ARKOE BY 605 PM CDT.
  NEAR MARYVILLE BY 610 PM CDT.
  NEAR CLYDE BY 615 PM CDT.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

SEAMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
602 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

KSZ025-102-MOZ004-011>013-020-130000-
ANDREW-ATCHISON-BUCHANAN-DE KALB-DONIPHAN-GENTRY-HOLT-
602 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR ANDREW...DONIPHAN...NORTHEASTERN
ATCHISON...NORTHERN BUCHANAN...SOUTHEASTERN HOLT...SOUTHERN GENTRY
AND WESTERN DEKALB COUNTIES...

AT 601 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OREGON TO 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PURCELL...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 22 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ST JOSEPH TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF ATCHISON...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR FORBES BY 610 PM CDT.
  NEAR FILLMORE BY 615 PM CDT.
  NEAR ROSENDALE BY 630 PM CDT.
  NEAR SAVANNAH BY 635 PM CDT.
  NEAR WHITESVILLE BY 640 PM CDT.
  NEAR ROCHESTER BY 645 PM CDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

SEAMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
622 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

KSZ057-103>105-MOZ028-029-037-043-130015-
CASS-CLAY-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LEAVENWORTH-MIAMI-PLATTE-WYANDOTTE-
622 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CLAY...JACKSON...JOHNSON...
LEAVENWORTH...NORTHWESTERN CASS...NORTHWESTERN MIAMI...PLATTE AND
WYANDOTTE COUNTIES...

AT 621 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING NEAR TOPEKA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THIS LINE OF STORMS MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT INTENSITY.

PEOPLE IN CASS...CLAY...JACKSON...JOHNSON...LEAVENWORTH...MIAMI...
PLATTE AND WYANDOTTE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RENO...EASTON
KS...TONGANOXIE...JARBALO...LINWOOD...BASEHOR...LEAVENWORTH...DE
SOTO...WESTON AND EDGERTON KS...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

SEAMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
638 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     TSTM WND GST     ST JOSEPH               39.76N 94.85W
05/12/2005  70 MPH           BUCHANAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

STOFLET