Tornado and Hail in Texas, May 12, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
400 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT ADVANCED INTO PANHANDLES REGION...LOCATED ALONG A LINE
FROM BEAVER...TO DUMAS...TO GLEN RIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
BOUNDARY STILL HAS A STRONG PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTH...BUT SHOULD SLOW
DOWN AFTER DAYTIME HEATING STRENGTHENS...AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WE CONSIDERED THE SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY STILL EXISTS LATER TODAY WHEN THE UPPER
LEVEL JET EMERGES AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHARPENS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. WE MAINTAINED THE SEVERE WORDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THE DRYLINE AND GULF
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE SHUNTED EAST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
IMMEDIATELY THEREAFTER...BRINGING ONE MORE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
BEFORE THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS ARE REPLACED BY COOL AND DRY CANADIAN
AIR.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS QUICKLY IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTANT WITH CLOUDING UP THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
REPLENISHED QUICKLY...POPS MAY NEED TO INCREASED TO INTRODUCE MENTION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

A SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OVER COLORADO ON MONDAY...THEN PUSHES ONTO
THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
PRESENT...CONCERNED THAT THE PANHANDLES MAY BE DRY SLOTED.
ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH.
NEVERTHELESS...WELL NEED TO WATCH THIS SCENARIO DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                83  53  78  47 /  40  40  40  40
BEAVER OK                  80  56  73  47 /  50  50  40  40
BOISE CITY OK              79  47  70  44 /  20  20  30  30
BORGER TX                  84  55  77  50 /  40  40  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              81  50  79  46 /  30  30  40  40
CANYON TX                  84  54  81  47 /  30  30  40  40
CLARENDON TX               85  60  81  51 /  40  40  40  40
DALHART TX                 82  47  75  45 /  20  20  30  30
GUYMON OK                  80  53  72  45 /  30  30  30  30
HEREFORD TX                84  53  80  49 /  20  20  40  40
LIPSCOMB TX                81  59  75  47 /  50  50  40  40
PAMPA TX                   83  58  77  51 /  40  40  40  40
SHAMROCK TX                85  61  79  52 /  50  50  40  40
WELLINGTON TX              86  61  81  53 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

13/08

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
600 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-121800-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
600 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES GENERALLY ALONG A BEAVER TO WELLINGTON LINE. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES
GENERALLY BETWEEN GUYMON AND AMARILLO. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES FROM BOISE CITY TO HEREFORD.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM THE JET-STREAM INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE PANHANDLES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD BE READY FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SLATTERY