Hail in Kansas, June 2, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
246 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2005

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...
18Z DDC SHOWING DECENT WEDGE OF WARM AIR AT 75H WHICH SHOULD SERVE
AS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS COVER
ALSO NOT HELPING MUCH BUT WITH DWPTS IN THE MID 60S SFC TEMP WOULD
NEED TO BE IN THE MID 90S WHICH LOOKS SOMEWHAT DOUBTFUL. BEST
CHANCE THIS LATE TODAY WILL BE ALONG COLD FRONT/DRYLINE IF TEMPS CAN
WARM ENOUGH.

LATER TONIGHT PCPN CHANCES STILL LOOKING PRETTY GOOD AS ALREADY
SEEING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NE COLORADO.
ALSO WITH FRONT AND MOISTURE AXIS FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT GFS
ADVERTISED CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PCPN WILL MOVE EAST INTO AT
LEAST OF NORTHERN CWA LATER TONIGHT.

BASED ON EXPECTED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE
WITH FRONTAL LOCATION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLACE MUCH OF SW KS NORTH
OF THE FRONT. BASED ON TEMPS TODAY NORTH AND CHANCE OF PCPN WITH OUR
NEXT UPPER TROF FRIDAY AFTERNOON HAVE COOLED MAX TEMPS SOME. BY
SATURDAY FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH AND UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. MOISTURE ADV AND UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER S/W TROF WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE FOR A CHANCE OF PCPN,
BEGINNING IN THE WEST AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. KEPT TEMPS
ON THE COOL SIDE BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW MUCH SUN WE WILL GET.

DAYS 3-7...
THE EFFECTS OF THE MAJOR CIRCULATION ADJUSTMENTS (ALLOWING TROUGHS
TO COME INTO THE WESTERN USA) DURING THE PAST WEEK MAKE FOR A
DIFFICULT MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST, PARTICULARLY IN REGARD TO TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVENTS.  THIS CHANGE CAN BE LINKED TO THE TROPICAL
CONVECTIVE FORCING SHIFTING FROM THE WESTERN INTO THE EASTERN
HEMISPHERE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.  PER FULL DISK SATELLITE
IMAGERY AT 1730Z 02 JUNE THE CENTROID OF THIS CONVECTION WAS AT
ROUGHLY 10N/90E, AND HAS BEEN SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS.  THIS MAY BE THE START OF AT LEAST A WEAK
MOIST PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO).

OVERALL, I EXPECT TO SEE PERSISTENCE OF THIS CIRCULATION STATE FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK, MEANING CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA.  THAT MEANS ADDITIONAL WESTERN CONUS TROUGHS WITH
RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA INTO ALASKA (A FORM OF BLOCKING).  THE
MOST INTENSE OF THESE TROUGHS WAS LOCATED 50N/170W THIS MORNING, AND
SHOULD DIG INTO THE USA BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  ALL OF THE
OPERATIONAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO,
WITH THE ECMWF DOING A BETTER A JOB MAINTAINING THE WESTERN NORTH
AMERICAN BLOCK.

FOR THE FORECAST, I THINK THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ROUNDS OF
STORMS ON ROUGHLY SUNDAY, BEFORE RESUMING PRESUMABLY ON THE DRYLINE
MONDAY NIGHT.  I WENT FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WEDNESDAY SIMPLY
TO PICK A DAY WHEN THERE MAY BE SIGNIFICANT CYCLONIC BAROCLINIC ON
THE PLAINS ACCOMPANIED WITH A SEVERE STORM OUTBREAK.  WHATEVER THE
CASE MAY BE, IN TERMS OF SEVERE STORMS, NEXT WEEK LOOKS ACTIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR PERHAPS EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH ROUGHLY TUESDAY WELL INTO THE 90S FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

DURING WEEK 2 I WOULD RESPECT TO SEE THIS REGIME SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO
THE WEST, LEADING TO A TROUGH ALONG THE USA WEST COAST.  THAT MAY
LEAD TO MORE ROBUST RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
AND SUBSEQUENTLY VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THE
8-10 FORECAST WILL READ NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.
IF I WERE DOING A WEEK 2 PREDICTION, MY THOUGHTS WOULD BE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  82  58  82 /  40  60  60  30
GCK  62  80  55  80 /  40  60  60  30
EHA  60  85  54  82 /  10  20  20  30
LBL  63  85  56  82 /  30  40  40  30
HYS  64  80  57  80 /  70  60  60  20
P28  70  88  63  85 /  30  60  60  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KS...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 11 PM
      THURSDAY FOR KSZ030...KSZ031...KSZ043...KSZ044...KSZ045...
      KSZ046...KSZ061...KSZ062...KSZ063...KSZ064...KSZ065...
      KSZ066...KSZ075...KSZ076...KSZ077...KSZ078...KSZ079...
      KSZ080...KSZ081...KSZ086...KSZ087...KSZ088...KSZ089...
      KSZ090.

&&

BURGERT/BERRY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1104 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2005

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-031000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
1104 AM CDT (1004 AM MDT) THU JUN 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LAKIN TO LIBERAL LINE. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NEAR LAKIN TO LIBERAL. ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE VERY UNSTABLE.

A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF NORTHEAST COLORADO ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THE
MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE
AREA THAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE AFFECTED WILL ALONG AND NORTH OF A
SYRACUSE TO LARNED LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINES WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE REGION. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER THESE WILL BE SEVERE OR NOT.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
257 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2005

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-075>081-086>090-030400-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-RUSH-
SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-TREGO-
257 PM CDT (157 PM MDT) THU JUN 2 2005

...TORNADO WATCH #377 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT (10
PM MDT) FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH:
BARBER...CLARK...COMANCHE...EDWARDS...ELLIS...FINNEY...FORD...
GRANT...GRAY...HAMILTON...HASKELL...HODGEMAN...KEARNY...KIOWA...
LANE...MEADE...NESS...PAWNEE...PRATT...RUSH...SCOTT...SEWARD...
STAFFORD...TREGO.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

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