Hail and Damaging Wind in Kansas, July 2 to 3, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2005

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORM
EVENT.  FIRST PERIOD CHALLENGE, TONIGHT, WILL BE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN WESTERN KANSAS ALONG A LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE.

A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE, YET HIGH ZONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY.  THIS HAS ALLOWED CYCLOGENESIS TO
OCCUR ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA.  MAIN CONVECTIVE EVENT WILL BE IN THIS AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, HOWEVER FARTHER SOUTH, THERE WILL PROBABLY
BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS.  OUR LOCAL SHORT-FUSE COMPOSITE TOOL SUGGESTS INITIATION
OF TSTMS MAY BE ONE TO THREE HOURS AWAY IN AN AREA OF DIMINISHED
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE...IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 1800-2400 J/KG SBCAPE JUST EAST
OF THE TROUGH/DRYLINE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS (NEAR THE GLD AREA).

TSTMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL BE DOMINATED PRIMARILY BY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY, AND AFTER 03Z, WOULD EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO WANE...AS
WESTERN KANSAS IS IN AN AREA OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING (LACK OF UPPER
SUPPORT).

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TOMORROW.  THE PACIFIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH DURING THE DAY,
BISECTING KANSAS.  MID 60S DEWPOINTS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COUPLED UPPER TROP JET STRUCTURE (AT THE NOSE OF
ZONAL PACIFIC JET AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER MIDWEST
STORM SYSTEM)...AND ASSOCIATED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC DEVELOPMENT WILL
SUPPORT A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR WIDESPREAD,
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  A LOWER-MID TROP BAROCLINIC ZONE
...WITH DEVELOPMENT AT 700MB AS WELL...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ENHANCED
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH FRONTOGENESIS FORCING.  THIS, IN
COMBINATION WITH HIGH POTENTIAL ENERGY (3000-3500 J/KG CAPE),
SUPPORTS A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...TRENDING INTO A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ALL THIS SAID, WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA, AND INSERT SVR WX WORDING AND OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE AREAS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER.
MAIN TEMPERATURE CHALLENGE IS HIGHS TOMORROW...AS TEMPS MAY SPIKE
TO 100F IN A COUPLE AREAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER IN THE THERMAL
RIDGE JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

DAYS 3-7...

THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.  THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK,
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR, ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THEN EVOLVING INTO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVERNIGHT.  WILL
CONTINUE THE GOING POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  LATER IN THE WEEK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REDEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.  COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK AT LEAST INTO THE MID 90S LATER IN THE
WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT
IS, TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING TOO MUCH WARMER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  99  68  88 /  20  30  60  20
GCK  68  98  66  88 /  30  30  50  20
EHA  67  99  66  90 /  20  20  50  20
LBL  69 100  68  90 /  10  20  60  20
HYS  69  94  67  90 /  30  40  50  20
P28  72 100  71  92 /  20  10  60  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KS...NONE.

&&

UMSCHEID/GERARD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2005

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-031000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
500 AM CDT (400 AM MDT) SAT JUL 2 2005

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE TODAY, WARM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID LEVELS AND A LACK OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND MOVE OUT INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY TONIGHT.  IF ANY
STORMS DO OCCUR IN THE AREA, HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MORE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AS WELL AS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.  EXACT TIMING AND NATURE OF THE
STORMS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, BUT SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A JOHNSON TO
GARDEN CITY TO HAYS LINE.

RITTERLING