Damaging Wind in Kansas, July 12, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
236 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS FCST CYCLE IS PCPN CHANCES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

AN OLD WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SUBTLE, WEAK FRONTOGENESIS FORCING
AND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE PROVIDED THE FOCUS FOR
INITIATION OF A SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS JUST EAST OF THE DDC CWA.
AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING (1925Z), A FEW SMALL -SHRA/-TSRA
WERE DEVELOPING IN RUSH COUNTY SOUTH INTO BARBER COUNTY.  THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH NOT MUCH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WITH H7 TEMPS AROUND +9C.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS IN AN AREA OF INCREASING 850MB FGEN AND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.  THE NAM SHOWS INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONVERGING WITH INCREASING NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS.
THE 18Z RUN OF THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THIS ZONE OF MESOSCALE FORCING, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH 20-30 POPS
TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY.  THE BACKDOOR PUSH OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL FORCE THE BEST MESOSCALE
FORCING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY, SO WILL
REDUCE POPS TO NEXT TO NIL BY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, SO TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
EASTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

DAYS 3-7...

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO THE IDEA OF A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS
WEEKEND.  THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE
COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING.  PREVIOUS SHIFT
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING ON MONDAY.  HAVE KEPT
THIS GOING AND HAVE INCLUDED THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS WELL
CONSIDERING THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE FRONT.

ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO BUMP UP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION BY THEN, WE COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.  MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

IN THE 8 TO 10 DAY PERIOD, THE LONG RANGE GFS AS WELL AS THE 240 HR
ECMWF 500 MEAN HT CHART SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BACK OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  IF THIS PATTERN VERIFIES, WE SHOULD SEE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND KEEP THE
RAINFALL AT NEAR NORMAL, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR NIGHTTIME MCSS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  91  67  93 /  20  10  10   0
GCK  66  91  65  95 /  20  10  10   0
EHA  64  91  66  93 /  30  20  10   0
LBL  66  91  67  93 /  30  20  10   0
HYS  67  90  66  93 /  10  10   0   0
P28  69  91  69  93 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KS...NONE.

&&

UMSCHEID/GERARD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-131000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
500 AM CDT (400 AM MDT) TUE JUL 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND
SHOULD BE MAINLY UNDER SEVERE LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

06