Hail in Kansas, August 17, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
337 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIP CHANCES TODAY AND THEN PRECIP AND
TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI NIGHT.

TONIGHT-THU:
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EXTREME SW CORNER OF
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS WHERE SOME MORE ENHANCED CU HAVE DEVELOPED IN
RESPONSE TO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCING INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME
THERE REALLY ISNT ANY GREAT FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, IF A
STORM CAN GET GOING IT WOULD LIKELY GO SEVERE GIVEN PRETTY DECENT
SHEAR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO THROUGH AROUND 04Z, WILL CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF I-135.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THERE APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER SHOT A PRECIP, BUT THIS
TIME, MORE OF AN ELEVATED MODE. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE PAINTING
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER AFTER CHECKING OUT THE 310-315K,
WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE
LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE NAM SHOWING A VERY DEFINED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ON THE 315K SURFACE WITH GOOD UPGLIDE OVER IT. SO WILL BASICALLY
LEAVE WHAT PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD WITH HIGHER CHANCES EAST OF I-135
WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES LINGERING INTO FRI MORNING.

FRI-SAT NIGHT:
THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT FRONT IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH. SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT SHOULD TAKE SHAPE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM SE NE THROUGH
SW KS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
ARRIVE FRI NIGHT AS CLASSIC RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
STARTS TO INTERACT WITH THIS FRONT. WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER
DYNAMICS STAYING NORTH OF AREA, NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
MAYBE POST FRONTAL. THEREFORE WILL NOT GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME AND
SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE WITH ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS. FRONT IS FORECAST
TO BE LINGERING AROUND THE KS/OK BORDER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SAT.
GIVEN THE FORECASTED LOW LEVEL FLOW AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD WITH THE THINKING THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SITUATED OVER NW
OK/NW TX, WHERE 850MB FLOW REMAINS CONVERGENT WITH SOME UPSLOPE
POSSIBLY ENHANCING SOME OF THIS STUFF. SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER CENTRAL KS. THIS SAME THINKING SHOULD ALSO APPLY
TO SAT NIGHT WITH THE GREATER CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS
WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO FRONT WITH CENTRAL KS REMAINING DRY.

SUN-WED:
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. BY SUN
EVENING THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY
THROUGH WEST TX. WITH SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OF AREA BY SUN MORNING,
TOOK ALL MENTION OF PRECIP OUT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. 850MB TEMPS OFF OF THE ECM
AND GFS WOULD YIELD HIGHER TEMPS THAN WHAT WE HAVE GOING. DID NOT
CHANGE TEMPS MUCH AT ALL WITH THE THINKING THAT THE COOL AIRMASS
MAYBE SHALLOW AND WITH WET GROUNDS, WARM-UP MAYBE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS, WENT BELOW CLIMO THROUGH ALL OF THESE PERIODS.
SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUE-WED WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE
FORECAST AREA STAYING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  95  72  96 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      68  96  71  97 /  30  10  10  20
NEWTON          69  95  72  96 /  30  10  10  20
ELDORADO        69  95  73  95 /  30  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  95  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         68  97  69  97 /  30  10  10  30
GREAT BEND      68  97  69  97 /  30  10  10  30
SALINA          70  96  72  98 /  30  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       69  95  71  96 /  30  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     71  93  74  95 /  30  20  10  10
CHANUTE         71  93  73  95 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            71  93  73  95 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

LAWSON/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
500 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-181200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
500 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 135. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WINDS TO
60 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IF STORMS DEVELOP, A FEW OF THEM MAY ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HOT AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES
WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR BOTH AFTERNOON TIME FRAMES.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE TYPE OR MAGNITUDE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
PLEASE WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND OUTLOOKS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS,
MAINLY THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KED/CJ