Hail in Kansas, April 5, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
656 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

QUESTIONS REMAIN ON COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
EVENING. INITIALLY ACTIVE LINE OF MULTI-CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAD EVOLVED INTO SCATTERED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN
TULSA AREA...AND NOW HAS SHOWN A RAPID DOWNWARD TREND IN THE LAST 30
MINUTES AS STORMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE WELL EAST OF DRYLINE FORCING
SOME 70 MILES FURTHER WEST.

PRIOR TO ANVIL OVERSPREAD...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT AN
EXTENSIVE STABLE LAYER EXISTED OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AS DENOTED BY
ELONGATED WEST-EAST CLOUD STREETS PERPENDICULAR TO LOW LEVEL FLOW.
INITIAL PERUSAL OF 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT HAS
ACTED TO REMOVE IMPRESSIVE INVERSION THAT WAS PRESENT ON THE 18Z
SOUNDING...HOWEVER SOME DEGREE OF INHIBITION REMAINS. ABSENCE OF
FURTHER HEATING AND HOMOGENEOUS DEWPOINT READINGS ALONG SSE
TRAJECTORIES INTO MUCH OF ARKANSAS WOULD SUGGEST THAT LITTLE IF ANY
THERMODYNAMIC IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL KINEMATIC FIELDS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS COMBINE WITH EXPECTED BACKING AS SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SSE. DESPITE LARGE CURVING 0-2KM
HODOGRAPHS...IT WOULD APPEAR UNLIKELY THAT THIS HELICITY WOULD
SUPPORT TORNADIC STORMS GIVEN THE LACK OF AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL CAPE.
FURTHERMORE...NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BACK RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS STACKED LOW APPROACHES...
SUGGESTING THAT STORMS MAY FURTHER WEAKEN AS UPDRAFTS BEGIN TO
COLLIDE AND OVERALL FORCING DECREASES. ALSO FAVORING AGAINST
TORNADIC POTENTIAL IS THE REALIZATION OF COLD CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS
EMANATING FROM SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR WHICH REMAINS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. OBSERVATIONS FROM EMPORIA KANSAS TO NE OKLAHOMA SHOW THAT
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES WITH ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION.

IN SUMMARY...OVERALLS TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SUBSEVERE CONVECTIVE
WIND GUSTS MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY A
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT OWING TO DIMINISHING MLCAPE AND BACKING
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL RAPIDLY REMOVE ANY
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS.

EQUIPMENT:

WITH STORMS NOW DIMINISHING...EXPECT THAT KSGF RADAR SHOULD BE BACK
UP SHORTLY. IN ALL SERIOUSNESS...EL TECHS HAVE RECEIVED PARTS AND
MAY HAVE RADAR BACK IN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
.KS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM ALL ZONES.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
721 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-061100-
BARRY-BARTON-BENTON-BOURBON-CAMDEN-CEDAR-CHEROKEE-CHRISTIAN-CRAWFORD-
DADE-DALLAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-GREENE-HICKORY-HOWELL-JASPER-LACLEDE-
LAWRENCE-MARIES-MCDONALD-MILLER-MORGAN-NEWTON-OREGON-OZARK-PHELPS-
POLK-PULASKI-SHANNON-ST. CLAIR-STONE-TANEY-TEXAS-VERNON-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AVA...BOLIVAR...BRANSON...CAMDENTON...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...FORT SCOTT...HOUSTON...JOPLIN...LEBANON...
MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...NEVADA...OSAGE BEACH...OZARK...
PITTSBURG...ROLLA...SPRINGFIELD...STOCKTON AND WEST PLAINS.
721 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEWSTORMS CAPABLE
  OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING
  WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE THREAT
  OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE LIMITED TO EXTREME SOUTHWEAST
  KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

  DISCUSSION:

  INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAD DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE DRYLINE
  OVER OKLAHOMA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAD MOVED EAST INTO A MORE
  STABLE AIRMASS OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING.
  EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE OZARKS HAD LIMITED THE DEGREE OF
  INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
  THUNDERSTORMS HAD SHOWN AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...
  AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY THIS
  EVENING...THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND MODEST WIND FIELDS
  MAY ALLOW SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH A
  LESSER THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
  GRADUALLY WEAKEN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS LATER THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
  AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  HAIL
  UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE COMMON WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
  OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

BOOKBINDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
219 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066>068-077>079-088>090-093>095-101>103-060200-
BARRY-BARTON-BOURBON-CEDAR-CHEROKEE-CHRISTIAN-CRAWFORD-DADE-GREENE-
HICKORY-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MCDONALD-NEWTON-POLK-ST. CLAIR-STONE-VERNON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOLIVAR...FORT SCOTT...JOPLIN...MONETT...
MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...NEVADA...OZARK...PITTSBURG...
SPRINGFIELD AND STOCKTON.
219 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 124 IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI UNTIL 900 PM CDT.

A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS OF KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG A
DRYLINE EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...AND
EVENTUALLY AFFECT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI BY 6 PM.  LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

CRAMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
742 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

KSZ101-060130-
CHEROKEE-
742 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM
CDT...

AT 739 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BAXTER SPRINGS...OR 16 MILES
EAST OF CHETOPA...AND MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR SCAMMON BY 755 PM CDT.
  NEAR WEIR BY 800 PM CDT.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AL