Hail in Kansas, April 21, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
351 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...

INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MO IS LIKELY TO BE ONLY THE FIRST WAVE...AS NEW CONVECTION
IS ATTEMPTING TO FIRE ALONG COLD FRONT FROM FAR NE KANSAS INTO NE
OKLAHOMA. WILL KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE
EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. ETABUFR
SOUNDING IN FAR SE KANSAS SHOWS MLCAPES OF AROUND 2500 J/KG BY 00Z.
LARGE AREA OF THIS CAPE EXISTS IN THE -10 C TO -30 C LAYER...SO
THINK LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY. WIND PROFILES ARE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND RELATIVELY WEAK...SO TORNADIC THREAT IS LOW EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MO NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM. UP UNTIL 345 PM...CONVECTION
NEAR THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA
HOWEVER.

BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY THROUGH
THE CWA TONIGHT. CHILLY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL THEN BUILD RAPIDLY
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY ON STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. VERY TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE WINDS LIKELY REACHING 20 TO 30
MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

NEXT CONCERN IS WITH POTENTIAL FROST/LIGHT FREEZE. SATURDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY SEE MID 30S IN SOME SPOTS...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST. SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING ARE ANOTHER STORY...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
DROPPING OFF. LOW TO MID 30S ARE LIKELY...AND SOME TRADITIONALLY
COLDER SPOTS COULD DROP JUST BELOW FREEZING. A FROST ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

EXTENDED FORECAST HAS LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FAIRLY CLOSELY AFTER
TUESDAY.

BROWNING

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN DECK AROUND FL030. POCKET OF
STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE INTO THE JLN
AREA FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BKN-OVC CIGS NEAR
FL030 POSSIBLE. KEPT JLN TAF VFR BUT POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME
BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT/DRYLINE MARCH ACROSS THE AREA. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...HOWEVER KEPT
HAIL/WIND OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE PENDING MORE DEFINITE
TIMING/INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25KT
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. ROBUST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
DECK SHOULD BLOSSOM FRIDAY MORNING ONCE THE SUN BREAKS OUT.

IZZI

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-221100-
BARRY-BARTON-BENTON-BOURBON-CAMDEN-CEDAR-CHEROKEE-CHRISTIAN-CRAWFORD-
DADE-DALLAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-GREENE-HICKORY-HOWELL-JASPER-LACLEDE-
LAWRENCE-MARIES-MCDONALD-MILLER-MORGAN-NEWTON-OREGON-OZARK-PHELPS-
POLK-PULASKI-SHANNON-ST. CLAIR-STONE-TANEY-TEXAS-VERNON-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AVA...BOLIVAR...BRANSON...CAMDENTON...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...FORT SCOTT...HOUSTON...JOPLIN...LEBANON...
MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...NEVADA...OSAGE BEACH...OZARK...
PITTSBURG...ROLLA...SPRINGFIELD...STOCKTON AND WEST PLAINS.
100 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

...SEVERE STORMS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH:
    HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS.
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
    VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
    AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
  LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

  MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP
  OVER EASTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO WESTERN
  PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BETWEEN 5 PM AND 9 PM. STRONG TO
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
  OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

  THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND AN
  ISOLATED TORNADO EXISTS WEST OF AN OSCEOLA TO CASSVILLE LINE
  BETWEEN 5 PM AND 10 PM THIS EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
  DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ALOFT WILL INITIALLY NOT
  BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER ISOLATED STORMS
  COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

  OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
  WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING. BY THEN...WINDS
  ALOFT WILL LIKELY HAVE INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY AND WILL SUPPORT
  SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HAIL...IN
  ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN
  ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
  THIS EVENING.

  THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
  THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
  THE SEVERITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SOME AFTER
  9 OR 10 PM...HOWEVER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL
  REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES
  ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
  INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS
  WILL LIKELY PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING FRIDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING
  WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
  WIDESPREAD FROST.

  THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
  TUESDAY...THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
  WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BROWNING/IZZI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
519 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

MOZ058-212245-
MARIES-
519 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARIES COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 515 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VIENNA...OR 13 MILES NORTH
OF ROLLA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BELLE BY 540 PM CDT.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

SAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
611 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

MOZ055-058-066>069-220600-
BENTON MO-CAMDEN MO-HICKORY MO-MORGAN MO-ST. CLAIR MO-
VERNON MO-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELED A PORTION OF TORNADO
WATCH 178 AND HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 181 UNTIL 1 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS

IN KANSAS THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS

BOURBON

IN MISSOURI THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

BENTON                CAMDEN                HICKORY
MORGAN                ST. CLAIR

IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

VERNON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...HERMITAGE...CROSS TIMBERS...
OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
VERSAILLES...STOVER...FORT SCOTT...WARSAW AND COLE CAMP.

KSZ097-101-MOZ057>058-070>071-077>083-088>098-101>106
-220600-
CHEROKEE KS-CRAWFORD KS-BARRY MO-BARTON MO-CEDAR MO-
CHRISTIAN MO-DADE MO-DALLAS MO-DENT MO-DOUGLAS MO-
GREENE MO-HOWELL MO-JASPER MO-LACLEDE MO-LAWRENCE MO-
MCDONALD MO-MARIES MO-MILLER MO-NEWTON MO-OREGON MO-
OZARK MO-PHELPS MO-POLK MO-PULASKI MO-SHANNON MO-
STONE MO-TANEY MO-TEXAS MO-WEBSTER MO-WRIGHT MO-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELED A PORTION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 177 AND HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 181 UNTIL
1 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN KANSAS THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS

CHEROKEE              CRAWFORD

IN MISSOURI THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 28 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

MARIES                MILLER                PHELPS
PULASKI

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

DENT                  HOWELL                OREGON
SHANNON               TEXAS

IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

BARRY                 BARTON                CEDAR
CHRISTIAN             DADE                  DALLAS
DOUGLAS               GREENE                JASPER
LACLEDE               LAWRENCE              MCDONALD
NEWTON                OZARK                 POLK
STONE                 TANEY                 WEBSTER
WRIGHT

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NIXA...OZARK...BOLIVAR...
KIMBERLING CITY...CRANE...ROLLA...NEOSHO...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
DIXON...WINONA...EMINENCE...LEBANON...BELLE...VIENNA...MONETT...
CASSVILLE...BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...GALENA...SALEM...AVA...
AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...MARIONVILLE...THAYER...ALTON...
GREENFIELD...LOCKWOOD...WEST PLAINS...WILLOW SPRINGS...HOUSTON...
LICKING...BUFFALO...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...LAMAR...GAINESVILLE...
THEODOSIA...PITTSBURG...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
REPUBLIC...ELDON...LAKE OZARK...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BRANSON AND FORSYTH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
636 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TORNADO          10 W HIATTVILLE         37.72N 95.06W
04/21/2005                   BOURBON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT. DEBRIS AND ROTATION.
            UNCONFIRMED TORNADO.

AF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             COLUMBUS                37.17N 94.83W
04/21/2005  1.50 INCH        CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HALF DOLLAR HAIL REPORTED BY EM FROM FAULKNER TO COLUMBUS

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
658 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             12 N VIENNA             38.35N 91.95W
04/21/2005  1.00 INCH        MARIES             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            EMS REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL TO LAW ENFORCEMENT

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
739 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             2 N MC CUNE             37.38N 95.02W
04/21/2005  1.75 INCH        CRAWFORD           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0650 PM     TORNADO          MC CUNE                 37.35N 95.02W
04/21/2005                   CRAWFORD           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0658 PM     HAIL             7 S (VIH)ROLLA/VICHY ARP38.03N 91.77W
04/21/2005  1.25 INCH        MARIES             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0720 PM     TORNADO          2 W CHEROKEE            37.35N 94.86W
04/21/2005                   CRAWFORD           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

AF