Hail in Iowa, May 27, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
245 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SITTING OVER SWRN
ONTARIO...JUST N OF KINL...AT 12Z.  EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...
NUMEROUS SHRA AND SOME TSRA WERE OCCURRING IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM ERN SD THROUGH NRN IA...MN AND INTO WRN WI.  FURTHER SOUTH
SHRA HAS BEEN SPOTTY WITH MOST OF IT TIED TO VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW.  TEMPS SO FAR THE AFTERNOON WERE STRUGGLING
ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WAS
HOLDING TEMPS BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  TEMPS ACROSS THE SRN
CWA WERE IN THE LOW 70S AS OF 19Z.

&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
EXPECT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER THE AREA
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.  FIRST ROUND
JUST TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WRN CWA NOW...AHEAD OF VORT MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND NERN IA.  ANOTHER VORT...IDENTIFIABLE IN
THE CU FIELD OVER ERN SD WILL BRING MORE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TO THE CWA
THIS EVENING.  ATM IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AT BEST THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  THE
SEVERE THREAT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF HEATING
WITH SURFACE TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 70.  FURTHER SOUTH WHERE
BETTER HEATING HAS OCCURRED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE WAY BY
03Z AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT OF MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE GONE WITH PERSISTENCE FOR MINS TONIGHT...LOW 40S NORTH TO
AROUND 50 SOUTH...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THIS MORNINGS UPSTREAM
MINS.  HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES
FOR SATURDAY CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW AND SOME WEAK LOW CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SRN MN AND SW WI.  REST OF FA WILL BE DRY.  TEMPS SIMILAR TO
THIS AFTERNOON...U60S N TO M70S S.  ...DLF...

&&

.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN PLAINS TO PIVOT SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.  THIS WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE WAVE OR CLOSED LOW THAT
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO MOVE AND/OR DEVELOP ACROSS
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SW SECTIONS AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. TYPE FORCING AND 12 AND 18Z INITIALIZATION SUGGEST NAM
OR ETA AND GFS ARE REASONABLE TRENDS.   STILL MARGINAL CONFIDENCE ON
HOW QUICKLY PHASING OCCURS THOUGH...SO KEPT POPS AS CHANCE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE AMOUNTS (QUARTER TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH) OF RAIN TO FALL IF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS DOES
HAPPEN. KEPT LOWS ON LOW SIDE NE AND NEAR TO HIGH SIDE OF BLEND OF
GUIDANCE SW LOCATIONS WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP. SUNDAY...MAX TEMPS A CHALLENGE WITH CLOUDS AND WHERE WAVE
GOES TO IMPACT TEMPS.  WENT LOWER/MID 70S SE AND UPPER 60S NW BUT
THIS GRADIENT MAY BE STRONGER IF CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS.  LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND INSTABILITY LIMIT STRONGER STORMS AND/OR SEVERE POTENTIAL
AT THIS TIME TO FAR SOUTH AND EAST...IF AT ALL.  THEN CONTINUED
SEASONABLY COOL MON/TUE BEHIND SFC LOW AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN.  LATE WEEK MORE ENERGY TO AFFECT AREA WITH TEMPS WARMING TO
AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL WITH WEAK WESTERN TROUGH.  ALSO POPS WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY TOO COOL FOR LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE. ..NICHOLS..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

NICHOLS/DLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
508 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-281000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
508 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST...EAST
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL...AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE
ON THE RELATIVELY WEAK SIDE.  HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
428 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     HAIL             NEW VIENNA              42.55N 91.11W
05/27/2005  0.50 INCH        DUBUQUE            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MDB