Rip Current in North Carolina, May 27, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1115 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2005

.SHORT TERM...WE HAD A LITTLE CIRRUS OVER US THIS MORNING BUT IT HAS
MOVED OFF THE COAST LEAVING US WITH MO SUNNY SKIES.  PREVIOUS FCST
FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 80S LOOKING OK.  NO REAL WEATHER HEADED OUR
DIRECTION UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  NO CHANGES NEED IN
PUBLIC GRIDS ATTM.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) (FROM PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION)...DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NAM AND GFS WITH HANDLING OF
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PARTICULARLY THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LIFT AND QPF. MOST OF THE BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS TO OUR NORTH
DEPICTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. ERN NC WILL BE IN THE LEFT FRONT
REGION OF AN UPPER JET AND THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK (LI -2)
INSTABILITY AROUND LATE ON SATURDAY. AS OF 06Z TONIGHT...THE GFS DID
APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST FIX ON THE PRECIP OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND
REGION AND VERIFIES BETTER IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. BASED ON
THESE FACTORS...WILL BUMP UP POPS SLIGHTLY TO 40 PCT ACROSS THE CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE UPPER JET JUST
TO OUR NORTH...THE INSTABILITY AND 50 TO 100 GM/KG OVER SFC MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STG TO
SVR TSTMS...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.
ENERGETIC SRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
SHWRS/TSTMS BY TUES.

..AVIATION...BKN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY MOVING OFFSHORE LATE
THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME SCT CU WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
SOME SCT HIGH CIRRUS.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST MSAS/SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS 1002MB STACKED LOW JUST
SSE OF SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA COAST HEADING SLOWLY NE INTO CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WHILE LEADING EDGE OF WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS
WESTERN PORTION OF OUR STATE. OFFSHORE BUOYS SHOWING SEAS SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO LOSE LONG PERIOD/ENE BACKSWELL AS OCEAN-GOING LOW PULLS
AWAY. BUOY 41025 HASNT HAD A LONG PERIOD PULSE SINCE LATE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...REPLACED PRESENTLY WITH 6 SEC PERIODS ALONG WITH 4 FT
SEAS/WSW 5-15 KT WINDS. CLOSER TO SHORE HOWEVER...UNDERLYING AND
RESIDUAL BACKSWELL ENERGY CONTINUES AS DUCK PIER WAVERIDERS 1/2 TO
2NM OFFSHORE REACT TO 10 SEC PERIODS WITH 2-4 FT NEAR SHORE SEAS.
OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS TRANSLATING WELL INTO OBX E FACING BEACHES THIS
MORNING WITH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE RUNNING 2-4 FT WITH LOW RIPS.
INTERESTING TO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND NOTE THAT SOUTHERN TONGUE OF
LABRADOR CURRENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH OFFSHORE/WESTERLY-UPWELLING
FLOW KEEPING OBX SSTS HOVERING AROUND 55-60 DEGREES AND NOT THE
NORMAL 70-72 DEGREE MARK WHERE IT SHOULD BE AS UNOFFICIAL START
TO SUMMER UNFOLDS. BEACH-GOERS FROM DUCK TO HATTERAS MAY BE IN FOR A
SOMEWHAT COLD WATER AWAKENING WHILE RUNNING TO THE WATER. FURTHER S
ALONG THE 0-20NM CRYSTAL COAST CORRIDOR...SEAS A BIT LOWER (2-3 FT)
AS WELL AS SURF (1-2 FT). SSTS HOWEVER A BIT MORE NORMAL/MILD FOR
BEACH-GOERS FROM ATLANTIC BEACH S TO ONSLOW COUNTY BEACHES WHERE 69
DEGREES SHOULD MAKE THE JUMP FROM SAND TO WATER MORE PALATABLE.

ALTHOUGH SW P-GRAD TIGHTENS A TAD (10-20 KTS) TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAVERSES THE REGION...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.
SEAS TO REMAIN AOB 4FT THRU ENTIRE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. WINDS SHIFT
AOB 15 KTS FROM N AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY WITH FROPA...THEN BACK TO
W BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES
INTO SE/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. LOTS OF TALK/ANALYSIS/MODEL UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING TUESDAYS UPCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EVENT MODELS BEGAN
PICKING UP ON YESTERDAY. WHERE-AS MEDIUM/LR GFS DEPICTED POTENT
LITTLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS TENNESSEE VALLEY/SE
STATES LATE MONDAY THEN TAKING IT TOWARD OBX TUESDAY...TODAYS RUN
SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE SAME ONLY TO A LARGER/DEEPER MB DEGREE AS LOW
SWEEPS BIT FURTHER N OFF THE DELMARVA VICE OBX COAST. APPARENTLY NOT
AN ANOMALY. GFS-DRIVEN/NOAA WAVE WATCH III CONTINUES TO AGREE WITH
SHORT-BURST OF SOUTHERLY FLOW SCENARIO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSES IN FROM W AND BUMPS SEAS A FOOT HIGHER FROM YESTERDAYS
RUN OF 5-7 FT TO 6-8. GFS80/TSEC ALSO SHOWING S/SW 30-40 KT LLJ JUST
OFF THE DECK (1000MB-850MB) FROM 06Z-18Z TUESDAY. WITH THE DEGREES
OF VARIOUS MODEL UNCERTAINTY NOW AT HAND..I WOULD FEEL CONFIDENT TO
SAY SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD COME TO PASS THE DAY AFTER MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...KRIEHN
MARINE...GC
AVIATION...WINGENROTH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
309 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2005

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-
103-104-280715-
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-MARTIN-PITT-
WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-
DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
309 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY EVENING. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SATURDAY.

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