Hail in Iowa, March 30, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
915 PM CST TUE MAR 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT RAIN SYSTEM COMING INTO THE CWA.  18Z MODELS BEGAN A
TREND TO THE WEST AND THE 00Z NAM HAS CONTINUED THAT TREND.  THE
BEST 300-500 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM NOW MOVES ACROSS EASTERN
SD INTO FAR WRN SD LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  THIS...COMBINED WITH
THE 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS BEING MAXIMIZED WEST OF KFSD AND KYKN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO THE
WEST WITH PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  IN
ADDITION...WITH THE FRONT MOVING MUCH MORE SLOWLY AND THE UPPER
DYNAMICS REMAINING OVER THE ERN CWA THROUGH 00Z OR EVEN LATER...HAVE
SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA.  HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO CHC IN MUCH OF NW IA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SW MN
FIGURING BEST CHC FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT.  EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER HAVE RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL OVERNIGHT WITH CHC POPS ALL THE WAY TO
THE WRN BORDER OF THE CWA.  EXPECT THAT AS PV ANOMALY BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE RAIN
FROM AROUND BON HOMME AND YANKTON COUNTY NORTHEAST TOWARD BROOKINGS
LATER TONIGHT.  THIS BAND OF RAIN SHOULD REALLY INTENSIFY EARLY WED
MORNING AS IT MOVES EAST WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL NO EXPECT ALONG OR
JUST WEST OF I29 AND THEN EXTENDING EAST TOWARD KMML IN SW MN.  THE
RAINBAND WILL SLOWLY EDGE EAST WARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO NW
IA.  AS THE WAVE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...THE 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
ACCELERATES TO THE EAST AND THEREFORE EXPECT A RAPID END TO THE
PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z. DESPITE FACT THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING BRIEFLY...EXPECT LOWER LEVELS TO REMAIN ABOVE 0C AND
KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN.  WILL LET LATER SHIFT EXAMINE IF THERE
IS POSSIBILITY OF SOME MIX ALONG BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE THE ADDED
ELEVATION MAY ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN LATE.  BUT WILL NOT ADD IN
FOR NOW AS PROBABILITY SEEMS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ARE LIKELY FROM YKN TO BKN.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRSIED IF A FEW LOCALS EXCEED 1.5 INCHES.
&&

.AVIATION...
RAPID DETERIATION IN AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN KFSD AND KSUX
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVE IN.  ALTHOUGH HAVE PUT
TSRA INTO THE PUBLIC FORECAST...CHC IS SO SMALL THAT DID NOT INCLUDE
IN TAF AS ODDS OF AFFECTING AN AIRPORT ARE SMALL.  BY
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THAT VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 2 MILES WITH
CIGS BELOW 1000 FEET DUE TO PERSISTENT HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AS RAIN MOVES EAST OF THE KFSD AND KSUX.  KHON IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE BETTER CONDITIONS BUT BASED ON LATEST ETA RUN EXPECT THAT
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.  HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PERSISTENT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

SCHUMACHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED SPOTTER ACTIVATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1120 AM CST TUE MAR 29 2005

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-301200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1120 AM CST TUE MAR 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR AND AREAS
FURTHER EAST. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE....BUT COULD
PRODUCE AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF AROUND ONE INCH.

FIRE DANGER...
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...ALONG WITH BRISK
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 35 TO 40 PERCENT
WILL PRODUCE A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND MUCH OF
NORTHWEST IOWA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND COULD REACH 25 TO 35 MPH MIDDAY IN AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.