Hail and Damaging Winds in Iowa, June 4, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
253 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF OUR CWA. THIS
PUTS MOST OF OUR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED
DRAMATICALLY IN SOME AREAS (INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S) AFTER THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTION. GREATEST SUFACE PRESSURE FALLS WERE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT. SURFACE LOW WAS OVER THE SD-MN-IA
AREA WITH A BOUNDARY TRAILING SOUTHWEST TO ANOTHER LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NE. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOW VORT LOBE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
MN AND WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONT...WITH A STRONGER VORT
AREA MOVING EAST OUT OF NORTHEAST CO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS VORT. AT 250 MB...THERE WAS A SPEED MAX (UP TO
75 KT) EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST NE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.

RADAR SHOWS THE CONVECTION WHICH PROMPTED TWO SEVERE TSTM WARNINGS
EARLIER FOR TWO OF OUR COUNTIES WAS IN THE CHICAGO TO MILWAUKEE AREA
AND MOVING NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...ONLY A FEW SMALL...MINOR..ECHOES
WERE OVER NORTHEAST IA.
..JAZ..

&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
OUR WEATHER MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY THE CONVECTION FORCEAST
TO DEVELOP IN THE NE-KS-IA-MO AREA LATER TODAY. ACCORDING TO STORM
MOTION...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THERE SHOULD MAINLY STAY SOUTH
OF THE IA-MO BORDER. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN OUR CWA
WOULD BE IN THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THE CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH MAY
HELP ROB OUR AREA OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY.

HAVING SAID THAT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN OUR
AREA WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING AS A VORT MAX LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA...IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. WE MAY HAVE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BEFORE THEN HOWEVER. PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK THAT
IMPRESSIVE FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA.
THE BEST CHANCES WOULD AGAIN BE IN THE SOUTH.

MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE WIND AND HAIL. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SLIGHT SHEAR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...WITH THE MOST IMPRESSIVE FEATURE BEING STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
IF THESE WINDS (MOMEMTUM) ARE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE THERE COULD
BE SOME WINDS ABOVE SEVERE CRITERIA.
..JAZ..

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...
UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD INTERACT WITH
UNSTABLE AIRMASS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  WILL CONTINUE SOME LOW
POPS FOR TSRA INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE H5 TROF AXIS.  AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...WEATHER
OVER THE AREA SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME AS SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE
BUILD INTO THE REGION.

(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TROF LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
AND RIDGE TO THE EAST.  SWLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL KEEP WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.  A SURFACE
FRONT WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR THUNDER STORM DEVELOPMENT.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AS THE EAST COAST
RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...FORCING FRONT TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
...DLF...

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

JAZ/DLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
102 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-051000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
102 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST...EAST
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL...AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF GOLFBALLS AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 70 MPH BETWEEN 6 AND 11
PM. AN ISOLATED BRIEF AND WEAK TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR. THE
HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEST OF A DUBUQUE...
MUSCATINE...KAHOKA MISSOURI LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM CASCADE TO FORT MADISON IN EASTERN IOWA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO A MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THIS TIME PERIOD NEARS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS  EVENING. INTERESTED
INDIVIDUALS SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI HAS BEEN SCHEDULED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AT 3 PM CDT.

DLF