Damaging Wind in Iowa, June 26, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80...IN THE 90S. A SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDED ROUGHLY ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 30. TEMPS HAVE BEEN COOLER TO
THE N OF THE FRONT...IN THE 70S AND 80S...HELPED AT LEAST PARTIALLY
BY CI. SOME -TSRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY ON THE IL SIDE OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NORTH OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE A CU FIELD EXISTS
INVOF THE FRONT...AND MODERATE CU IN SOME PLACES.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY)...
MAIN CHALLENGE IS PRECIP POSSIBILITIES THIS EVENING. TSRA IS ALREADY
ONGOING MAINLY ON THE IL SIDE OF THE RIVER. ORIGINALLY THOUGHT THAT
WE WOULD SEE SOME TSRA ON THE IOWA SIDE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 30...BUT THE FRONT IS BECOMING MORE
DIFFUSE. TSRA THREAT MAY BE LESS THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...BUT WILL
STAY WITH ORIGINAL THINKING SINCE GOING POPS ARE LOW ANYWAY.
FORECAST CAN BE UPDATED LATER IF NECESSARY.

AFTER A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...THE HEAT RETURNS FOR MONDAY.
..JAZ..

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)..
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IS RELATIVELY ACTIVE...THOUGH
MORE SO TO OUR WEST AND NORTH.  THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY FINALLY BEGINS TO OOZE EAST ON
MONDAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT DEVELOPS AN MCS WHICH MOVES SLOWLY EAST
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING.  THIS HELPS THE
FRONT TO LAY OUT GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.  WE SHOULD BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOR MORE WARM NIGHTS AND HOT AFTERNOONS.  THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT TO DRAG IN SOME CONVECTION...SO HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN SHOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IS WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS BEGINNING TO
CONVERGE ON WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FROPA TIMING...WITH
SOME PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.  THINGS COULD BE QUITE
INTERESTING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THINGS WILL GET QUIET AGAIN...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
CWA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  BY NEXT SUNDAY WE GET BACK INTO RETURN
FLOW...AND THE SLOW WARMING TREND OF SATURDAY SHOULD GET EVEN WARMER.
..LE..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

JAZ/LE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1147 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-271000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
508 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...NORTHEAST MISSOURI...
NORTHEAST IOWA...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-80 FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 30. JUST LIKE SATURDAY EVENING...SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 80S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE AS HIGH AS THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES 95 TO 100 EACH AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM DUBUQUE IOWA TO KAHOKA
MISSOURI.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...THE MOST LIKELY AREA IS WEST OF A LINE
FROM DUBUQUE IOWA TO KAHOKA MISSOURI.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A SMALL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY ANYWHERE FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 30.

JAZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
350 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E SHANNON             42.15N 89.64W
06/26/2005                   OGLE               IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER OUTAGES DUE TO LINES BEING BLOWN DOWN. ROAD SIGNS
            BLOWN DOWN.

&&

WE