Flash Flooding in Indiana, September 24, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EST SAT SEP 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.  ALSO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SOMEWHAT
OF A CONCERN TOO.

STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY WAS BECOMING QUITE DIFFUSE
AS HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTHEAST OF GREAT LAKES CONTINUED TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD. WIND PROFILER AND MODEL DATA INDICATED A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAK S/W MOVING EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION WAS HELPING TO GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THIS S/W WILL MOVE EAST OF US TODAY AND MODELS INDICATE A LESSENING
OF THE WARM ADVECTION AT 850 DURING THE DAY. SO THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH AND POSSIBLY END LATER LATER THIS MORNING.  NAM SHOWS BASED
CAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG AND VERY LITTLE CAP BY AFTERNOON.  THIS IS
PROBABLY OVERDONE BUT THERE IS ALREADY A 20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL KEEP THAT GOING FOR THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. SINCE FAR
SOUTHWEST AREAS ARE SOUTH OF INSTABILITY AXIS WILL GO DRY THERE
TODAY.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NAM AND GFS.  GFS BRINGS
A SWATH OF MOISTURE UP FROM RITA VERY QUICKLY INTO OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY. NAM IS SLOWER AND WILL LEAN FORECAST MORE THAT WAY AS WITH
REMAINS OF RITA STALLING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS GFS SEEMS TOO QUICK
MOVING MOISTURE OUR WAY. NAM IS SLOWER MOVING IN MOISTURE BUT IT
ALSO SLOWER WITH COLD FRONT AS WELL.  THUS HIGHER POPS SHOULD LAST
LONGER ON MONDAY.  WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTHEAST
MONDAY EVENING TOO.

STATIONARY FRONT OVER KENTUCKY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING.
MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE WARMER TODAY. HOWEVER NAM MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO QUICK TO WASH OUT FRONT SO WILL GO CLOSER TO  SLIGHTLY
COOLER MAV TEMPERATURES TODAY. AFTER TODAY WILL GO BETWEEN MAV AND
MET TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS.

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOK OK...WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
THERE.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JEH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
302 PM EST FRI SEP 23 2005

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-241100-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
302 PM EST FRI SEP 23 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY MONDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE)

KOCH