Tornado and Damaging Wind in Indiana, November 15, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
635 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

.AVIATION...
INTENSIFYING STORM WSW OF KFWA WITH DEVELOPING LEWP HAVE TARGETED
KFWA WITH G45 POTENTIAL TO START. WIDESPREAD MVFR BEHIND FRONT TO
KS/MO LINE. OTHER FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH LES DEVELOPING WED. FETCH
LARGELY 260-270 WITH DELTA-T IN MID/UPPER TEENS...ANY IFR VSBYS
SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KSBN. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SHSN AT KSBN
JUST BEYOND CURRENT TERMINAL PERIOD AS FLOW BECOMES 290-300 WITH
DELTA-T INCREASING TO LOWER 20S TO BE CONSIDERED FOR NEXT ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
CONCERN REMAINS WITH SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT
BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH AS LOW OVER WCENTRAL IL BEGINS TO
DEEPEN/LIFT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
NORTHERN IL. LOW TO CONTINUE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AS IT DEEPENS AND
MOVES TO NEAR MKE BY 03Z. INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO SOUTH
ALONG WITH STRONG 0-1KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS TO BEGIN TO DISPLACE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AS PROFILE BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
STRONGER. 0-1KM HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 NOW INTO
SOUTHERN CWA WITH TIGHT GRADIENT WITH INCREASE TO AROUND 600 IN
CENTRAL INDIANA. SECOND AND THIRD LINE SEGMENTS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MAY REACH FARTHER INTO WEST INTO CWA WITH MORE
NNE CELL MOVEMENT LATER THIS EVENING. NEAR STEADY TEMPS WED BEHIND
FRONT. AFTER 11Z MIX RASN TO ALL SNOW EXCEPT WHERE PRECONDITIONED BY
LAKE TEMPS AROUND 10C. TOOK FLURRIES FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE 270
DEGREE IN CLOUD FETCH...TRIMMING SOUTHERN EXTENT IN LAPORTE/MARSHALL
COUNTIES. RELATIVELY SHORT FETCH/STRONG WINDS AND INITIAL WARM
GROUND TO LIMIT ACCUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS NOAM IS UNDERWAY IN THE SHORT TERM
AND WILL BE USHERED IN BY A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL
TRANSITION OUT OF THE STABLE 2 TO 3 LONGWAVE PATTERN WHICH HAS
DOMINATED THE FALL SEASON INTO A MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN CONSISTING OF
A LARGER NUMBER OF HIGHER AMPLITUDE LONGWAVES. THE PATTERN OVER NOAM
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY ON THE LARGE SCALE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK WITH STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST NORTH OF A
CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM
AMPLIFICATION OF A SERIES OF CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL
CARVE OUT OF MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE AVERAGE
WITH SEVERAL WELL BELOW NORMAL DAYS POSSIBLE.

FIRST PERIOD OF CONCERN IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FIRST DECENT
SHOT AT ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. DEEP MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS OF
-12C TO -14C SUPPORTING LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF AROUND 800J/KG AND LAKE
INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF 12K FEET. W TO WNW FLOW WILL TARGET
AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE INDIANA TOLL ROAD. WILL INCREASE POPS TO
LIKELY EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES MICHIGAN
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND DEEPER
INLAND ACROSS MICHIGAN. WILL ALSO INCLUDE 1-2 INCH ACCUMS IN BERRIEN
AND CASS COUNTIES. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL BE
SHORT FETCH ON WNW WINDS AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW LAKE INDUCED MIXED
LAYER OF AROUND 12K FEET. LAKE EFFECT WILL BEGIN TO WANE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENVIRONMENT AS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW PULLS AWAY.

WILL SEE A BREAK ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. FIRST IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL DIVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED. WILL RETAIN LOW CHANCE POPS
WITH -RW/-SW IN THE SOUTH AND -SW IN THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. WITH WEAK
DYNAMICS AND LACK OF MOISTURE ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP QUICKLY INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND THEN CROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT EVENING
WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROUGH SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND A DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD TO WORK WITH THAN THE
FRIDAY SYSTEM. HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR SAT NGT AND SUN. AS FAR AS
PRECIP TYPE...HAVE GONE WITH A MIX SAT EVENING THEN SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT SAT AND SUN AS BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL WITH
1000-850MB THICKNESS DROPPING TO AOB 1290M. GIVEN CAA AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WOULD EXPECT A RENEWED ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BUT MUCH
TOO EARLY TO ATTEMPT TO FORECAST LOCATION OR INTENSITY.

ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVES MAY
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY DAY 7 TUE...BUT THIS FAR OUT TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THESE WAVES BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR MODELS
TO RESOLVE. GIVEN MODEL DISCREPANCY ON TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS
THIRD CLIPPER...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS ACHIEVED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ043-LMZ046.

&&

SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM....HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...MURPHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1141 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-161645-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
1141 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 /1041 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW INTENSE AND LONG LASTING TORNADOES. THE
HIGHEST RISK OF DESTRUCTIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MONTICELLO...
LOGANSPORT....PERU...MARION...FORT WAYNE...AND VAN WERT.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
BRINGING THE FIRST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. A SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE RAPIDLY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SQUALL LINE MAY PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUING.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-061-161645-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST JOSEPH MI OUT TO MID LAKE-
1141 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 KNOT
GALES. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 14 FEET BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
40 KNOT GALES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 30 KNOT WINDS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 10 TO 14 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/MARINE

HITCHCOCK