Flash Flooding in Indiana, January 9 to 12, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WAS FOUND ACRS INDIANA...KY
AND TN EARLY THIS MORNING. 3.9U SAT PIX SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS
ACRS OUR STATE...EXTENDING W TO CENTRAL MO AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
DEWPOINTS ACRS THE AREA HOLDING UP WELL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TDY WL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OF OVERALL PATTERN AND WL USE
BLEND. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER STILL ACRS OUR RGN AND AND NO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO CLEAR THINGS OUT WL KEEP SKIES MOCLDY TDY. TIME
SECTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP A VERY THIN LAYER OF HIGH RH NEAR THE SFC
HOWEVER THE REST OF THE COLUMN IS DRY. GIVEN ONGOING CLOUDS...CAN
SEE NO REASON TO REMOVE THEM VERY QUICKLY. WITH CLOUDS LINGERING AND
A SNOW PACK ACRS MUCH OF FA WL LEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MAV TDY.

A WEAK TROF WL APPROACH INDIANA THIS EVENING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS TROF IS MOISTURE STARVED AS 300K ETA ISENTROPIC SFC SHOWS NO
UVV AND MIXING RATIOS FALLING BELOW 1 G/KG AFT 00Z. HOWEVER IT WL
BEGIN TO SET THE STAGE PCPN EVENTS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF WL STALL OUT ACRS INDIANA.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWER LVL MOISTURE ACRS OUR
FA...AND TIME SECTIONS CONCUR. HENCE AGAIN MOCLDY SEEMS THE WAY TO
GO.  WITH CLOUDS STILL AROUND AND H8 TEMPS WARMING UP CONSIDERABLY
AS THE THERMAL BOUNDARY TAKES SHAPE WL LEAN A BIT WARMER THAN MAV
FOR LOWS.

WARM FRONT SETTLES ACRS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND EXPECT CLOUDS TO
REMAIN...NOT TO MENTION THE FAST UPPER FLOW THAT WL LIKELY ADD A
FEW MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF S/W LOOKS TO
APPROACH INDIANA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS WL BE THE NEXT BEST CHC
FOR PCPN. H10-H8 LAYER Q-VECTORS HINTING AT STRONG CONVERGENCE AT
THAT TIME. WL BUMP UP POPS HERE. WL USE A BLEND OF MAV AND FWC TEMPS
FOR MONDAY HIGHS AND STICK CLOSE TO MAV ON MON NIGHT LOWS.

&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUMA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
832 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2005

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-091043-
BARTHOLOMEW-BOONE-BROWN-CARROLL-CLAY-CLINTON-DAVIESS-DECATUR-
DELAWARE-FOUNTAIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HENDRICKS-HENRY-HOWARD-
JACKSON-JENNINGS-JOHNSON-KNOX-LAWRENCE-MADISON-MARION-MARTIN-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWEN-PARKE-PUTNAM-RANDOLPH-RUSH-SHELBY-SULLIVAN-
TIPPECANOE-TIPTON-VERMILLION-VIGO-WARREN-
832 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE WABASH...WHITE AND EAST
FORK OF THE WHITE RIVERS THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOODING IS STILL
ONGOING...CLOSING MANY LOW LYING ROADS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FLOOD WARNING FOR PARTS OF THE WABASH...WHITE AND EAST FORK OF THE
WHITE RIVERS WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS INDIANA FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RAINS TO THE STATE.
SOME HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME
FRAME...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.