Lightning Strike in Indiana, August 13, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
121 AM EST SAT AUG 13 2005

.AVIATION...
MODELS SEEM TO BE CHANGING. THEY DID HAVE THE COLD FRONT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA MOVING BACK NORTHWARD TODAY AS A WARM FRONT...BUT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL AT THE MOST MOVE AS FAR
NORTH AS FWA. SO THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND IT
WILL ALSO BE LIGHT. TOO MUCH OF A QUESTION FOR TODAY OF WHEN AND
WHERE ANY STORMS WILL BE SO HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF STORMS OUT FOR
NOW UNTIL CAN GET A BETTER IDEA. A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR FOG AT FWA
DUE TO THE RAIN THAT WENT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT
CONVECTION COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS FWA MAY STOP THAT FROM
HAPPENING.
&&

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE. COLD FRONT LIES FROM NEAR HILLSDALE...TO NW OF
KIWX...TO LAFAYETTE AS OF 23Z. CONVECTIONS CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS LINE WITH LARGEST CONCENTRATION AND HIGHEST
REFLECTIVITIES REMAINING JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL
LEAVE FORECAST INTACT FOR NOW AS SCT WORDING AS ONCE MAIN LINE MOVES
THROUGH ACTIVITY HARDER TO FIND UNTIL YOU LOOK UPSTREAM ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND ESPECIALLY MISSOURI. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE
MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME...WITH AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH ANY STORM MERGERS. SOME CONCERN FOR NEEDING
TO BUMP UP POPS LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE ONLY AREA HOLDING ONTO CLOUDS BEING
FAR NW AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING SE.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED THUS FAR ACROSS THE AREA
WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING STOPPING USE OF
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (LIS 3- TO -5 C AND CAPES 2500-3500
J/KG...ESPECIALLY IN WEST AREAS). ISOL ACTIVITY STARTING TO INITIATE
FINALLY IN NW PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BETTER COVERAGE CLOSER
TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO ILLINOIS AT THIS TIME. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION INTO THIS
EVENING. 4KM WRF MODEL AS WELL AS NAM SHOWS CONVECTION RAPIDLY
BREAKING OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVING NE INTO THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. 30-40 KTS SPEED SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE
INSTABILITY AMT OF INSTABILITY AND 850-700 MB WINDS IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE...STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AND
ASSOCIATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH PWATS AOA 2 ACROSS
THE AREA...HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A FACTOR WITH
SOME SPOTS POSSIBLE SEEING 1 TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY REDEVELOPMENT THAT COULD
OCCUR. WILL KEEP SVR MENTION OUT OF ZONES/GRIDS BUT HIT HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL ALL AREAS. WILL BE GOING WITH SCT 50 POPS FOR TONIGHT. IF
CONVECTION CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD...POPS
WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS
SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPR 60S WITH LOCATIONS AHEAD OF IT
AROUND 70 OR A BIT WARMER.

ON SATURDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH AGAIN
BRIEFLY...BUT RETURNS BACK NORTH OF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS...ESPECIALLY
NAM...INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD...POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN WHO
GETS BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOW LATER FORECASTS TO MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS ONCE SETUP HOPEFULLY BECOMES CLEARER. AS FOR TEMPS...NO
CHANGES AS WELL AS WILL LIKELY BE A DECENT TEMP GRADIENT POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN WITH WARMEST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

LONG TERM...
NRN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES CONTS TO AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO HEADY
SW TROF DIGGING INTO ID ATTM. INADV...SRN STREAM SUB TROPICAL MSTR
PLUME CONTS TO RIDE NEWD ARND WRN EXTENT OF ELONGATED MID LVL RIDGE
CNTR AND LOOKS TO BECOME MORE OF A FCST CONCERN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

TO START...FCST IS AWASH W/UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING CONV LEFTOVERS SAT
BUT ON THE OTHER HAND...ID TROF TRANSLATING EWD W/ASSOCD HGT FALLS
SPREADING TWD LAKES AND DVLPG SFC REFLECTION OVER THE PLAINS
EJECTING NE SAT NIGHT SURE LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT ACRS SRN LAKES...ESP NW HALF IN PROXIMITY TO PROGGED SFC LOW
CNTR TRACK AND HAVE REFINED UNDERLYING POP/WX GRIDS AS SUCH.

BIGGER DILEMMA LIES W/SUN TIME PD ESP IN LIGHT OF DECENT FNTL WV AT
THAT TIME HEADING INTO ONT AND LACK OF UPSTREAM IMPULSE TO HOLD UP
LIKELY SWD PUSH TO SFC BNDRY. THAT SAID SEE LTL REASON TO HOLD ON TO
ANY POP MENTION SUN NIGHT AS STILL PREFERRED FLATTER CONUS MID LVL
HGTS FAVORS A MORE EARNEST SFC RIDGE BLDG OUT OF CANADA.

BEYOND THAT...ACTIVE FNTL ZONE ALG SRN EDGE OF WESTERLIES LOOKS TO
TAKE UP RESIDENCE THROUGH OH VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK BFR SIGNS OF
RENEWED WRN TROF AMPLIFICATION BEGIN TO APPEAR AND PERHAPS PROMOTE A
RTN CHC OF PRECIP BY LATE WEEK/NXT WEEKEND.
&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...98
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...66

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1140 AM EST FRI AUG 12 2005

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025-131100-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-
STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-
WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-
JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-
FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...
NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...
ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...
LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...
BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...
MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...
BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...
COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...
NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...VAN WERT...
DELPHOS...LIMA
1140 AM EST FRI AUG 12 2005 /1140 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005 /1240 PM
EDT FRI AUG 12 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OHIO...NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES OUT OF ILLINOIS...WITH A THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS
CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSE THE GREATEST
THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-061-131100-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST JOSEPH MI OUT TO MID LAKE-
1140 AM EST FRI AUG 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
AN ISOLATED RISK OF A SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/MARINE