Damaging Wind in Illinois, November 15, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
442 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SHORT-TERM MDLS...IN RSNBL AGRMT THRU 84HRS...WITH L/W TROF TO
DOMINATE THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS THRU ERY FRIDAY. TWO MAIN S/WVS
IN THIS FLOW...WITH FIRST MOVG THRU TDA/TNGT AND THE OTR MOVG THRU
ON THURS NGT. AT THE SFC...GFS HAD BEST OVERALL INITIALIZATION OF
THE MDLS. LO PRES OVR NCNTRL OK WL TRACK THRU THE FA TDA...JUST N
OF KSTL...WITH WRMFNT DRAGGED NWD THRU THE SRN/ERN SXNS OF THE FA
THIS MRNG. TRAILING CDFNT FM LO PRES WL SWEEP THRU DURG THE LATE
MRNG/ERY AFTN HRS USHERING IN THE CDST AIR OF THE AUTUMN SEASON.

FOR TDA...FIRST THE FOG. AREAS OF FOG HV DVLPD ACRS MO/IL...AND IS
MOST PREVALENT IN THE NWRN SXNS OF THE FA. HWVR...PCPN SPREADING
NEWD INTO THIS AREA THIS MRNG ALG WITH LO PRES AT THE SFC TRACKING
CLOSER TO THIS AREA SHUD ERODE FOG INTENSITY SOMEWHAT.
BESIDES...CURRENT FOG INTENSITY HAS VSBYS MAINLY IN THE 1-2SM RNG
WHICH IS ABV DENSE FOG ADVSRY CRITERIA. NO PLANS TO ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVSRY ATTM UNLESS THINGS TANK FAST. FLASH FLOOD THREAT...FFA
WAS ISSUED EARLIER IN THE SHIFT TO ACCOUNT FOR FLASH FLOOD POTNL
FM TRAINING CELLS IN SRN MO. THE TRAINING CELL SETUP IS STARTING
TO GET DISRUPTED A BIT AS WRMFNT LIFTS NWD WITH APPCHG LO...SO
LOOK FOR FLASH FLOOD POTNL TO DMSH HDG LTR INTO THE MRNG HRS...BUT
CURRENT FFA SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON...SO LOOKS GOOD. DO NOT XPCT
FLASH FLOOD POTNL TO INCR MUCH DURG MIDDAY/AFTN AS XPCTD
SUPERCELLS MERGING TO A SQUALL LN LTR IN THE DAY WL BE MUCH MORE
NORMAL TO THEIR MOVMT VECTOR...THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT IS HAPPENING
NOW. ON TO SVR WX...SPEED MX SWINGING ARND THE BASE OF A S/WV TROF
BY MIDDAY WL COMBINE WITH STG SFC CDFNT...RICH MOISTURE THRU THE
COLUMN AND ENUF INSTABILITY TO IGNITE TSTMS IN THE WRM SECTOR BY
LATE MRNG. BULK SHEAR PROFILES WL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX
WITH FCST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTING SUPERCELL POTNL LTR MERGING INTO A
LN BY LTR IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT...SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE SERN
THIRD OF THE FA IN A HIGH RISK...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE HEIGHTENED
RISK FOR TORNADIC STMS. INITIALLY...MAIN SVR THREAT WL BE LRG
HAIL...BUT AS WRMFNT MIGRATES NWD THIS MRNG...DAMAGING WIND THREAT
WL ALSO INCR SUBSTANTIALLY. LO TRACK IS XPCTD TO PASS FM KSGF-JUST
N OF KSTL-KSPI BY MID AFTN...AND WITH IT A TGTNG TEMP GRAD. MID
60S TEMPS ARE MASSED ALG THE WRMFNT ACRS NRN AR AND SHUD SEE MUCH
OF THIS AIR MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE SERN HALF OF THE FA BY MIDDAY...
WHICH IS A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABV THE WRMST MOS. LTL IN THE WAY OF
A TEMP CHG ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LO WITH WDSPRD LO ST CLDS...NLY
SFC WNDS...AND PCPN. WNDS WL INCR SIGFNTLY DURG THE AFTN HRS AS LO
PRES PULLS AWAY AND CDFNT SWEEPS THRU THE FA. BELIEVE TRACK OF
LO...ALG WITH STRENGTH OF H925 SFC WNDS WL KEEP WNDS BLO WND
ADVSRY CRITERIA FOR THIS PD...BUT WL BE QUITE WINDY NONETHELESS.

FOR TNGT...SHUD CONT TO SEE SFC WNDS OF 20-25MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-
40MPH DURG THIS PD...WITH STGST WINDS DURG THE EVNG HRS.
PERSISTENT CYC CURV AT LLVLS AND PRESENCE OF LO CLDS WL ALLOW FOR
SCT FLURRIES/SPRINKLES THRU-OUT THE NITE...WITH BEST CHC FOR
MEASURING PCPN ACRS THE FAR NRN FA WHERE IT WL BE CLOSER TO BTR
MID LVL MOISTURE AND SEEDING FM ABV. STG SFC WNDS AND CLDS WL TEND
TO KEEP TEMPS FM FALLING AS MUCH AS THEY CUD...BUT SHEAR STRENGTH
OF CD AIR WL STILL DRIVE TEMPS SVRL DEGS BLO FRZG IN THE NWRN HALF
OF THE FA FOR THE FIRST WDSPRD FRZ OF THE AUTUMN SEASON...WHICH IS
ARRIVING MUCH LTR THAN NORMAL (LAST WEEK OF OCT NORMALLY). HV
THEREFORE ISSUED A FRZ WRNG FOR THIS AREA LT TNGT. WL ALLOW DAY
SHIFT TO MAKE CALL ON WHETHER TO EXPAND FURTHER SEWD.

FOR WED/THURS...CLDS WL PERSIST ON WED WITH CHC FLURRIES...BUT
THEN CLR OUT FOR WED NGT AS HI PRES BLDS IN. VERY CD NITE IN STORE
FOR WED NGT WITH MOS FCSTG UPR TEENS/LWR 20S...WHICH WL SAFELY PUT
TO REST ANY RMNG AREAS THAT HV NOT HAD A FRZ YET. ANOTR CDFNT
APPCHS FA ON THURS NGT...BUT SOME ISSUES ON TIMING AND STRENGTH
STILL TO BE WORKED OUT...WITH NAM 6HRS FASTER AND STGR THAN GFS.
FOR NOW...LACK OF MOISTURE AND BTR FORCING FURTHER TO THE N...HV
KEPT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CRAWFORD-IRON-
     JEFFERSON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-
     WASHINGTON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AUDRAIN-BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-MONITEAU-
     MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-RALLS-SHELBY.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CLINTON IL-MARION IL-
     MONROE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL.

&&

TES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
622 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

ILZ069-070-074-079-101-102-MOZ065-072>075-084-085-099-161230-
CLINTON IL-CRAWFORD-IRON-JEFFERSON-MADISON-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-
WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
622 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TODAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A POWERFUL
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA...AND PUSH AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME LIKELY SEVERE... WILL FORM
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN DURING THE PAST NIGHT...AND HAS SATURATED THE
GROUND. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL HEIGHTENED THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT ACROSS THE AREA...AND AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES UNTIL NOON.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SHORTLY AFTER A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE AUTUMN SEASON IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL TO AROUND 20.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY
ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

ILZ059-060-064-065-099-100-MOZ061>064-161230-
BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-
MONTGOMERY IL-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-
622 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A POWERFUL
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA...AND PUSH AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME LIKELY SEVERE... WILL FORM
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SHORTLY AFTER A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE AUTUMN SEASON IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL TO AROUND 20.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY. SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY
ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ILZ058-098-MOZ049-052-059-060-161230-
CALHOUN IL-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-LINCOLN-OSAGE-WARREN-
622 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA...AND
PUSH AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE... WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SHORTLY AFTER A TIGHTLY
WOUND LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF
THE AUTUMN SEASON LATE TONIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO AROUND 30.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

IF THE WIDESPREAD FREEZE DOES NOT OCCUR TONIGHT...THE PROBABILITY
IS HIGH THAT THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE AUTUMN SEASON WILL
THEN OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL TO AROUND
20.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SPOTTERS
ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

ILZ095>097-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-041-042-047-048-050-051-
161230-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOONE-BROWN IL-CALLAWAY-COLE-KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-
MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-SHELBY-
622 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...CENTRAL MISSOURI...EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA...AND
PUSH AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE... WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SHORTLY AFTER A TIGHTLY
WOUND LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.

THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE AUTUMN SEASON IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S. AS A
RESULT...A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SPOTTERS
ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
558 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BUNKER                  37.46N 91.21W
11/15/2005                   REYNOLDS           MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            BUNKER SCHOOL DISTRICT CLOSED DUE TO IMPASSABLE ROADWAYS
            ACROSS DISTRICT. MANY OTHER LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND LOW
            LYING AREAS ARE IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOOD WATERS IN
            REYNOLDS COUNTY.

0549 AM     FLASH FLOOD      IRONTON                 37.60N 90.64W
11/15/2005                   IRON               MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            STREET FLOODING ACROSS CITY OF IRONTON.

0549 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BUCKHORN                37.33N 90.30W
11/15/2005                   MADISON            MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            HIGHWAY M IS IMPASSABLE. COUNTY ROADS 328 AND 330 ARE
            IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOOD WATERS AS WELL.

&&

CVKING