Flash Flood in Illinois, November 15, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
142 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN
CHANCES FROM CURRENT TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND TEMPS
ESPECIALLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE PAH CWA ARE IN A TORNADO WATCH
UNTIL 5AM CST.  LATEST RADAR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING ACROSS
AREAS FROM CARTER AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...TO UNION AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS...TO UNION AND HENDERSON COUNTIES IN
KENTUCKY. HAVE HAD SOME FLOODING REPORTS...ESPECIALLY URBAN
AREAS...ACROSS AREAS IN THIS HEAVIER BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
GFS...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT
PRECIP...INDICATES HEAVIEST PRECIP AREA WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE PAH
FA AFTER 12Z AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH.  WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR ADDITIONAL URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM/FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS...BUT WITH HEAVY RAIN ALREADY OCCURRING
AND EXPECTING THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN TO MOVE NORTH OF THESE AREAS
IN THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS LATE
TIME.

ON TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WITH SPC INCLUDING THE ENTIRE PAH
CWA IN A HIGH RISK...OBVIOUSLY WILL CONTINUE WITH SEVERE MENTION IN
TODAYS ZONES.  GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH THE
LOW...PUTTING IT OVER STL BY 18Z...BUT OVERALL POSITIONING IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH GFS MAYBE JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS FASTER THAN THE NAM.
LOOKS LIKE PRIME TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM LATE MORNING
INTO VERY EARLY EVENING...WITH PRECIP ENDING VERY QUICKLY FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  CURRENT GRID TIMING AND
CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK GOOD AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.  ONLY
TWEAK TO TODAY WILL BE TO INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES NOW THAT WE ARE IN A HIGH RISK.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY.  AT 07Z...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
ALONG THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI BORDER...TO NORTH OF PAH...TO JUST NORTH
OF EVV...TEMPS RANGE FROM 68 DEGREES AT PAH AND HOP...TO 48 DEGREES
AT MVN.  TEMPS SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE ALREADY NEAR OR WARMER THAN
THE FORECAST HIGHS OF THE MAV AND MET...SO WILL LOOK TO THE WARMEST
FWC FOR GUIDANCE.  OVERALL EXPECT TO GO WITH A MID 60S NORTH TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A MAJOR COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW.  TEMPS WILL
FALL TO 20 TO 30 DEGREES LOWER THAN WE HAVE BEEN HAVING...WHICH WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  BY LATE IN THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL.

GFS DOES SHOW A COUPLE OF WEAK...DRY COLD FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN ANOTHER SATURDAY NIGHT.  SO FAR
ONLY EFFECTS LOOK LIKE MAYBE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT...BASED
ON LATEST MEX GUIDANCE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...STICKING PRETTY CLOSE TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV VALUES.  IN THE EXTENDED...MADE SOME VERY MINOR
TWEAKS LATE IN THE EXTENDED BASED ON LATEST MEX GUIDANCE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

RST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
448 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-152300-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...MURPHYSBORO...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...
SHAWNEETOWN...JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...
CAIRO...MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...
POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...
CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...
BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...
MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...
OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...
MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...JACKSON...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...
DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...
NEW MADRID
448 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD USHERING IN MUCH WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR TO THE REGION TONIGHT. IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER MEAGER...BUT WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGHOUT
THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD.
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT ENTERS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI JUST AFTER NOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. THE STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA
BY 6 OR 7 PM.

ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER
AND RECENT RAINFALL MAY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEATING AND
THEREFORE LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO THE STORMS.
CONFIDENCE IN A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS GREATEST IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT
WIND FIELDS IN THE NORTH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE
RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY.

IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT THE STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED OR
FORM INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE
A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WITH ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELL
STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS IF THEY FORM A LINE...BUT A FEW
TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS...WHICH
COULD CAUSE SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NEAR
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO EXIST AFTER THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
947 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 PM     HAIL             MOUNDS                  37.11N 89.20W
11/14/2005  0.25 INCH        PULASKI            IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1020 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     FLOOD            MORGANFIELD             37.68N 87.91W
11/14/2005                   UNION              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STATE POLICE BLOCKING ROADS DUE TO FLOODING THROUGHOUT
            COMMUNITY.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1219 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HENDERSON               37.84N 87.58W
11/15/2005                   HENDERSON          KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF SEVERAL INDIVIDUALS STRANDED IN VEHICLES. ONE
            HOUSE FLOODED AND BEING EVACUATED.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1221 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MORGANFIELD             37.68N 87.91W
11/15/2005                   UNION              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED BY 18 INCHES OF WATER. HALF OF ROADS
            IN THE COMMUNITY OF STURGIS AREA CLOSED DUE TO STANDING
            WATER. HIGHWAY 60 IS FLOODING IN SPOTS.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1241 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CAPE GIRARDEAU          37.31N 89.55W
11/15/2005  0.00 INCH        CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FEW STREETS FLOODED IN CAPE GIRARDEAU AND LOW WATER
            BRIDGES FLOODED IN THE COMMUNITY OF JACKSON.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
235 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 AM     FLOOD            HENDERSON               37.84N 87.58W
11/15/2005                   HENDERSON          KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT EVACUATING ASSISTED LIVING FACILITY.

&&

CHRISN