Heavy Snow in Idaho, December 30, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
715 AM MST FRI DEC 30 2005

.SHORT TERM...VERY BUSY MORNING WITH MULTIPLE HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS
OUT AND OTHER ADMINISTRATIVE ISSUES.  BRIEFLY...VERY WET PROLONGED
WINTER STORM TO AFFECT AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  SEE WSWBOI FOR
DETAILS ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL AND PRECIP TYPE DISCUSSION.  TEMPS
SEEMED TOO HIGH OUT OF MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND WENT MORE WITH RAW
ETA/GFS BLEND...WHICH ALSO AGREED MUCH BETTER WITH MODEL SOUNDING
DEPICTION OF OF EVOLUTION OF EVENT.  VERY LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE
TONIGHT WITH SOME WARMING SATURDAY FOR MAXES WITH SOME BREAKS IN
PRECIPITATION.  MODEL SNOW LEVELS SEEMED TOO HIGH...BOTH RAW AND
THICKNESS BASED.  WENT BELOW THESE NUMBERS...MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS
SHIFTS HAVE DECIDED TO DO...AND LIKE OTHER AREA OFFICES CHOSE TO DO.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  GOOD
MOIST FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC ALONG WITH A JET CORE OF 150KT.  MAIN
DIFFERENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT MODELS HAVE MOVED THE
PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER NORTH SO HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A BIT
AND INCREASED THE QPF.  BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON MODELS ARE STILL
HINTING AT A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND A POSSIBLE DRY
FORECAST BUT LOOKING AT MODEL MOISTURE AND FLOW FROM OFF THE PACIFIC
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE A DIRTY RIDGE AND THAT SOME
SMALL POPS AREA STILL WARRANTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  THINKING OF
PREVIOUS SHIFT OF STAYING NEAR CLIMO POPS SOUNDS GOOD BUT THERE WAS
A NEED TO MATCH OFFICE TO THE EAST THAT WANTED TO GO FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  SO HAVE KEPT SOME POPS OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BUT NOT AS HIGH AS CLIMO.  CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN IS GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY BUT THEN IS LOW FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED AS MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF IFR
VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.  RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MAINLY SNOW ABOVE 5000 FT AGL.  AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THERE WILL BE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.  RAIN AND
SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IDZ011...013...015...028...029...030
OR...HEAVY SNOW WARNING ORZ062.

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JA
AVIATION.....JA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
513 AM MST FRI DEC 30 2005

IDZ011>016-028>030-ORZ061>064-311215-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-LOWER TREASURE VALLEY ID-BOISE MOUNTAINS-
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY-SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY-
CAMAS PRAIRIE-OWYHEE MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY-
HARNEY COUNTY-BAKER COUNTY-MALHEUR COUNTY-
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY OR-
413 AM PST FRI DEC 30 2005 /513 AM MST FRI DEC 30 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
IDAHO...SOUTHWEST IDAHO...WEST CENTRAL IDAHO...NORTHEAST OREGON
AND SOUTHEAST OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING: SOUTHWEST
HIGHLANDS...SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY...OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...BAKER
COUNTY...WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BOISE MOUNTAINS...CAMAS
PRAIRIE.

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING MEANS SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL
MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IF AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU
MUST...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE
IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. PLEASE SEE HEAVY SNOW WARNING PRODUCT FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN BAKER COUNTY UNTIL 4 AM PST
SATURDAY...AND IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BOISE
MOUNTAINS...AND CAMAS PRAIRIE UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY. LOCATIONS
WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS POTENTIALLY REACHING UP TO 10 INCHES
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS.