Heavy Rain in Hawaii, September 23, 2005

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI SEP 23 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK TRADES WILL SLACKEN FURTHER ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
INTO THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL STORM JOVA MOVES FURTHER NORTHWEST. SEA
BREEZES WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO
PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRADES AND MORE TYPICAL WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM JOVA...CURRENTLY 325 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HILO...CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON A TRACK WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED CROSS
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WHILE JOVA ITSELF WILL NOT AFFECT THE STATE
DIRECTLY...WE WILL FEEL INDIRECT IMPACTS IN THE WAY OF LIGHT TRADES
AND HIGH SURF. IN ADDITION...THE SAME TROUGH WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR TURNING JOVA ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE
ISLANDS...IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER
THE ISLANDS. AN EARLIER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE BIG
ISLAND...WHICH PROMPTED A FLOOD ADVISORY...HAS DISSIPATED. RAINFALL
RATES OVER SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND WERE BRIEFLY HIGH...BUT OVERALL
TOTALS WERE GENERALLY IN THE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE. A
SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECTED THE WINDWARD OAHU AFTER
SUNRISE.

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING REVEAL A PRETTY GOOD START WEATHER
WISE AT PRESENT...BUT WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...EXPECT A MARKED CHANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RECENT
AIRCRAFT DATA AGREE WITH THE EARLY MORNING SOUNDINGS THAT INDICATE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT OVER THE STATE. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES...BELIEVE
THAT ONCE THINGS START TO HEAT UP OVER LAND...WILL SEE A MARKED
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATER TODAY. THAT SAID...WILL LEAVE
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR KAUAI AND OAHU. WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE WATCH ON THE SITUATION TODAY AND ISSUE ADVISORIES
AS NECESSARY. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING..BUT IT IS NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES.

ANY AFTERNOON BUILDUPS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO
PARTY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ON SATURDAY...ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS. THOUGH THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS MOVES A BIT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE STATE...IT IS STILL
SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY...STILL EXPECT AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BUT CHANCE FOR HEAVY SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY AS
RIDGING OVERHEAD PUSHED THE UPPER LOW FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
ISLANDS.

EXPECT A GRADUAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TOWARD TRADE WIND
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM KENNETH IS
LURKING WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE...BUT IS FORECAST TO CROSS 140W
SOMETIME TUESDAY. EFFECTS OF KENNETH...IF ANY...ON THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAIN MORE THAN A WEEK AWAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM JOVA HAVE PRODUCED SURF AT OR
ABOVE THE ADVISORY LEVEL OF 8 FEET TO EAST-FACING SHORES OF ALL THE
ISLANDS BUT NIIHAU AND LANAI. EXPECT THE SURF TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR
THE ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN DECLINE BELOW THAT LEVEL
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST-FACING SHORES OF KAUAI...OAHU...
MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

TANABE