High Surf in Hawaii, September 21 to 23, 2005

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED SEP 21 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT BY AFTERNOON.
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE
INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS BY WEEKS END MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THESE SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AS A LITTLE WEAKNESS OR TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH ALOFT...AND THEN THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE JOVA SHOULD
CONTINUE THE WEAK TRADE WIND PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FOR TODAY NOT MUCH EXCITEMENT TO START THE MORNING OFF. SOME OF THE
MOISTURE FROM JOVA IS GETTING CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND. THE FORECAST
PROBLEM IS...HOW MUCH OF JOVA/S MOISTURE GETS INTO THE ISLAND CHAIN
BEFORE IT/S WHISKED AWAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. CPHC FORECAST
TAKES HURRICANE JOVA AND BEGINS TO TURN IT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY
TAKING THE HURRICANE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS. THE GFS75
BRINGS MORE MOISTURE FROM JOVA INTO THE EASTERN ISLANDS...HOWEVER
THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS TO THE EAST OF THE THE GFS75 TRACK. WILL HAVE
TO DISCOUNT SOME OF THE MOISTURE BASED ON THAT FACT. THE CURRENT
UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT
TODAY...AND BE REPLACE SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST BY ANOTHER UPPER
LOW. THIS REPLACEMENT LOW IS NOTABLE THIS MORNING IN THE WV IMAGERY
AND SEEMS ON TRACK WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO PLACE THE HEIGHTS START TO FALL AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS THE ALOHA
STATE...WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS TO THE WEST. CONVECTIVE
INDEXES SHOW A CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THUNDER
OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS...NOT GOING TO JUMP ON IT AT THIS TIME.
JUST TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS POINT TO BREAK OUT THE THUNDER.
WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE BEFORE LOOKING INTO ENHANCED
WORDING FOR HEAVY SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD MUCH FALLS ON WHERE JOVA GOES AND DOES IT GET
SHEARED OFF...OR HOLDS TOGETHER. CURRENT PLAN OF ACTION FROM CPHC IS
KEEP THE SYSTEM TOGETHER AND NOT SHEAR IT OFF. THIS WOULD TAKE A
GOOD PART OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. GOING TO STICK WITH
THE CURRENT GOING PACKAGE OF ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ON POPS AND WAIT
ANOTHER MODEL RUN. REALLY DO NOT WANT TO DO A FLIP FLOP ON THE TREND
AT THIS TIME.

THE LONG TERM REMAINS IN LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE TROPICAL
ACTIVITY. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE LIGHT TRADE WIND TREND GOING
THROUGH DAY EIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY SWELLS FROM HURRICANE JOVA ARE BUILDING ACROSS EAST
FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI. SURF ALONG THESE
SHORES WILL RISE ABOVE THE ADVISORY LEVEL OF 8 FT OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE ISLANDS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. EAST FACING SHORES OF
MOLOKAI... OAHU...AND KAUAI WILL BE INITIALLY BLOCKED BUT MAY RISE
TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST
MAUI THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

PROTON