Wildfire in Hawaii, May 27 to 28, 2005

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI MAY 27 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE TRADE WINDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS CONCENTRATED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...AS WELL AS THE LEEWARD SLOPES
OF THE BIG ISLAND EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MAUKA CLOUDINESS TODAY THOUGH MOST IF NOT ALL
WINDWARD COASTS REMAINED PARTLY CLOUDY. EXCEPT FOR THE AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS OVER THE KONA SLOPES AND LEEWARD HALEAKALA...MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE REMAINING LEE AREAS. PATCHES OF SHOWERY
LOW CLOUDS WHICH AFFECTED THE ISLANDS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE
CALMED DOWN BY MID MORNING AND THE GAGES HAVE BEEN RATHER QUIET
SINCE THEN. A COUPLE OF GAGES ALONG THE HILO COAST MANAGED A
QUARTER INCH OR SO...WITH A HANDFUL OF OTHERS RECORDING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH CHANGES IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE RIDGE WILL
MODIFY THE STRENGTH AND DIRECTION OF THE TRADES. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED 1400 MILES NORTHEAST HAWAII AND THE CORRESPONDING RIDGE 600
MILES TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP TRADES IN THE MODERATE RANGE OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN HOWEVER...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE HIGH
AND PUSH THE RIDGE A BIT CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...NOT
MUCH MORE THAT LIGHT TRADES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

EXPECT FAIRLY TYPICAL DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE
ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITIES. AS THE TROUGH IS SHARP AND NARROW...THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA. ACARS AND
THE AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS BETWEEN
OAHU AND THE BIG ISLAND. THIS ORIENTATION PLACES THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...SO WE MAY SEE A
HEAVY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE KONA SLOPES AND LEEWARD
HALEAKALA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND ARE
KEYING IN ON A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE ALEUTIANS. THIS SHORTWAVE PUTS A KINK IN
THE UPPER LOW...PRODUCING A TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS TOWARD SOUTHWEST.
THE TROUGH DIGS DOWN SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE A SURFACE REFLECTION
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. THE SURFACE REFLECTION MATERIALIZES AS A
TROUGH...AND SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A LOW WILL FORM WITHIN
THE TROUGH AND DRIFT NORTH OF THE STATE. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAY
OUT...THE RIDGE WILL BE NUDGED JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...TURNING
THE TRADES JUST SOUTH OF EAST. ITS GETTING PRETTY LATE IN THE SPRING
TO MENTION LOWS FORMING WHERE THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...BUT THEN
AGAIN IT HAS NOT NECESSARILY BEEN A TYPICAL SPRING. AM STILL A BIT
SKEPTICAL OF THE MODEL SOLUTION...SO WILL KEEP THE TRADEWINDS OUT OF
THE EAST FOR NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IF YOU MISSED THE LAHAINA NOON OVER OAHU AT 1228 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...YOU WILL HAVE TO WAIT A COUPLE OF DAYS AND TRAVEL TO
KAUAI TO CATCH THE NEXT ONE...SCHEDULED FOR 1235 PM OVER LIHUE ON
MAY 30.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ALEUTIANS WILL PRODUCE A
SMALL SWELL OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE ISLANDS MONDAY...SO THE SURF SEASON FOR THE NORTH SHORES
IS NOT OVER JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE TROUGH OVER THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE
TURBULENCE AT FLIGHT LEVELS ABOVE 30 THOUSAND FEET DUE TO THE SHARP
TRANSITION BETWEEN THE EASTERLIES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AND THE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. TURBULENCE WILL BE THE GREATEST
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHERE THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION TAKES
PLACE....CURRENTLY POSITIONED ALMOST DUE EAST TO WEST OVER MAUI
COUNTY.

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

TANABE