High Surf in Hawaii, March 13 to 16, 2005

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1040 AM HST SUN MAR 13 2005

CORRECTION FOR DATE.

SYNOPSIS...
BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND A LOW NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WILL OCCASIONALLY AFFECT US THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN SHOWER BANDS. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
ISLANDS TOWARDS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...INTRODUCING DRIER
WEATHER ON THOSE DAYS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY...STALLING BEFORE REACHING KAUAI BUT DRAGGING AN
AREA OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM OAHU EASTWARD LIE WITHIN A RELATIVELY
DRY AND CLEAR SLOT BETWEEN A RECENTLY DEPARTED SHOWER BAND EAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND AND A SECONDARY BAND OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS NOW IN THE
KAUAI CHANNEL AND WEST OAHU. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED SINCE THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHOWER BAND ACROSS THE STATE YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN
LIGHTER SHOWERS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW PATCHY
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS NORTH OF THIS SECONDARY SHOWER BAND AS WELL AS
HEALTHY NORTH TO SOUTH CLOUD MOVEMENT...INDICATING A SWELL FETCH
POINTED RIGHT AT THE MAIN ISLANDS.

LATEST GFS75 SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL CUT OFF INTO A DEEP
LOW 900 TO 1000 MILES NORTH OF HAWAII THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE
SOUTH TO A POINT 400 TO 500 MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER STOPPING BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY...THE LOW WILL BEGIN
MOVING BACK NORTHWARD AS THE MIDLATITUDE STORM TRACK DIGS IT OUT.
THIS SETS UP A SERIES OF SHOWER BANDS...DEPICTED IN MODELS AS A
PINWHEEL PATTERN...ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE LOW AND
PASSING ACROSS THE MAIN ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BAND OF
CLOUDS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU IS THE FIRST OF THESE. THE PINWHEELS WILL
NO LONGER REACH THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN
DRIER WEATHER ON THOSE DAYS.

WITH A DEEP LOW TO OUR NORTH...PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLIES TO NORTHWESTERLIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONG ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED ISSUANCE OF
HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE SUMMIT OF HALEAKALA BEGINNING TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS AT
THE SUMMITS MAY RANGE FROM 70 TO AS MUCH AS 100 MPH MONDAY INTO AND
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF LARGE NORTHWEST SWELLS AFFECTING THE
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL LIKELY PEAK TODAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY
BOOST THE SURF TO NEAR WARNING LEVELS EARLY TUESDAY. SURF WILL BE
LARGE AND DISORGANIZED SINCE THIS WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD SWELL DUE
TO THE NEARNESS OF THE FETCH AND WESTERLY WINDS. SOME RUNUP OF SURF
OVER NORTH AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES IS LIKELY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU
AND MOLOKAI...AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS...KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS
AND OAHU WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

POWELL/HOAG