Wildfire in Hawaii, July 18, 2005

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST MON JUL 18 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH...FAR TO THE NORTH...WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING OVER THE
ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG OVER
THE HIGH MOUNTAINS. A LARGE CLOUD AREA WILL KEEP THE WINDWARD SIDE
OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII CLOUDY AND A BIT WET THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE WEATHER WILL DRY OUT TOMORROW. THROUGH THE WEEK...SHOWERS WILL
BE CONCENTRATED OVER WINDWARD AREAS. NO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS OVER KONA DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SUMMIT LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL QUITE STRONG...WITH FAIRLY CONSISTENT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS UP AT HALEAKALA ACCORDING TO THE OBSERVATION
THERE. SEE NO REASON TO ALTER THE CURRENT ADVISORY CONFIGURATION FOR
THE SUMMITS.

OUR MAIN WEATHER PLAYER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE VAST AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOWS AND TROUGHS OVER THE LOWER LATITUDES OF THE CENTRAL NORTH
PACIFIC...BUT NONE OF THESE APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THE FORECAST GRIDS REFLECT A
MIX OF PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY...AND NO MAJOR REVISIONS APPEAR
TO BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM FOLLOWS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THESE
CLOUDS ARE MOSTLY STRATOCUMULUS BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE UNSTABLE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS...MOSTLY LIGHT ONES...WHEN THEY HIT THE BIG
ISLAND. THE CLOUDS EXTEND SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES UPSTREAM...SO IT
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND SHOWERY OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.

A FAIRLY STRONG 1033 MB HIGH IS ABOUT 1600 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI NEAR
45N 167W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWEST THROUGH
TUESDAY...LINGER NEAR 45N 172W FOR 48 HOURS...THEN MOVE BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP
TRADE WINDS BLOWING OVER THE ISLANDS INTO NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE
HIGH CENTER NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS RATHER DISTANT IT IS FAIRLY
STRONG. TRADE-WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 MPH BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH AT TIMES DURING THE WEEK
TO MAKE THE TRADES LOCALLY BREEZY.

A RIDGE ALOFT NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE RATHER STABLE THROUGH THE WEEK. THAT SHOULD MEAN TYPICAL
SUMMER WEATHER. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN CONCENTRATED OVER WINDWARD
AREAS EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE KONA SLOPES
OF THE BIG ISLAND. DESPITE THE STABILITY...THE KONA SHOWERS MAY BE
LOCALLY HEAVY. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OVER
THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SUMMIT OF HALEAKALA...AND THE SUMMITS OF
HUALALAI...MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA ON THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

R BALLARD