Wildfire in Hawaii, August 1 to 6, 2005

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST MON AUG 1 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE STATE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FOR LEEWARD LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR LEEWARD AREAS OF THE
BIG ISLAND...WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST. CHANGES IN THE STATUS QUO OF
MODERATE TRADES WILL COME IN THE FORM OF WEAK CIRCULATIONS SLIDING
IN FROM THE EAST SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. LOOKING AT
THE GFS75 MODEL THIS MORNING IT FAILED TO FIND THE WEAK CENTER OF
CIRCULATION JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS FEATURE
SEEMS TO BE KICKING UP THE WINDS A BIT MORE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
MAIN ISLAND CHAIN. DO EXPECT AS IT CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE WEST
THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BACK TO MODERATE TRADE LEVELS FOR ALL AREAS.

THE NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST WHICH IS NOTED BY THE SAT PIX AND THE GFS
IS TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED CIRCULATION. THIS ONE AT
LEAST HAS SOME MORE SHOWERS WITH IT. THE GFS75 DOES AGREE THAT
SOMETHING IS OUT THERE AND HOLDS ONTO THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THE FEATURE BEGINS TO TURN THE 850 MB STREAMLINES A LITTLE
MORE NORTHEAST IN NATURE AND TIGHTENS UP THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PER THE MODEL. THIS COULD
BRING THE NEXT RAMP UP IN THE TRADE WINDS FOR THE ISLANDS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE MODELS STAYS PRETTY STEADY WITH NO MAJOR
BUBBLE UPS OR DOWNS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION /POPS/ CHANGES FOR NOW.
&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES /SCA/ UP FOR MAALAEA BAY AND
AROUND SOUTH POINT. HAVE ENTERTAINED EXTENDING TO INCLUDE ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL...HOWEVER AFTER CONSULTATION WILL KEEP THEM BELOW SCA LEVELS
THIS MORNING. 1711Z SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED 25 KTS AROUND THE
AREA AND MATCHED UP WELL WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE REGION
SUPPORTING KEEPING ALENUIHAHA BELOW SCA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY 2005 ENDED UP PRETTY MILD ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RANGE ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS AT
LIHUE...HONOLULU INTERNATIONAL...KAHULUI AND HILO.

HONOLULU INTERNATIONAL HAD SECOND HIGHEST MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE SINCE 1949 OF 83.1 DEGREES ONLY FALLING ONE-TENTH A OF
DEGREE BELOW THE READING OF 83.2 DEGREES RECORDED FOR JULY 1995.
ANOTHER NOTABLE ITEM OF INTEREST WAS THE NUMBER OF DAYS WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE REACHED OR SURPASSED 90 DEGREES AT HONOLULU
INTERNATIONAL. THIS YEAR /2005/ THERE WAS 17 DAYS WHERE THE
THERMOMETER REACHED OR EXCEEDED 90 DEGREES. THIS RANKS THIRD SINCE
1949 ONLY BEHIND JULY 1995 WHERE 27 DAYS RECORDED AND 20 DAYS IN
1987 RANKS SECOND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ONLY UPDATE THIS MORNING WILL BE THE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
MAINLY AROUND HALEAKALA AND KAHOOLAWE TO COVER CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY ON TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WATERS AROUND SOUTH POINT AND MAALAEA BAY.
&&

PROTON