Hail in Georgia, May 19, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
930 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

.UPDATED...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP FOG AND ADD LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR THIS MORNING.

.PREVIOUS FORECAST...
EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP TODAY AS SHORT WAVE OVER
MN BEGINS MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. FLOW AHEAD OF THE
WAVE WILL INCREASE SOME WITH WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING.
INSTABILITY NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS EARLIER THOUGHT BUT MORE THAN
ENOUGH FOR TSRA. SVR POTENTIAL LIMITED. LI VALUES SHOULD ONLY DROP
TO -3 OR SO BUT STORM RELATIVE FLOW WILL BE LESS THAN 15KTS SFC
THROUGH 300MB. LOW LEVEL SR FLOW LOOKS GOOD FRIDAY NW ZONES AND WEST
OF CWA BUT AGAIN VALUES ACROSS REST OF GA WILL BE LESS THAN 15KTS.
MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD BE OBSERVED AT MOST SITES THUR NIGHT AND
FRIDAY BUT HOLDING BACK SOME BASED ON CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIP.

WAVE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH A LITTLE QUICKER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. NEW
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF COMING MORE IN LINE WITH NAM. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG FRIDAY NIGHT
UNLESS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BEHIND FRONT. REST OF WEEKEND
SHOULD BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP LATE
SUNDAY. DGEX MODEL MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT STILL
QUESTIONABLE THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP. BY MID WEEK...MODELS DIVERGE WITH DGEX PROGGING STRONG ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS U.S. AND GFS/ECMWF KEEPING DEEP TROUGH JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT TEMPERED THEM
SOMEWHAT BASED ON MODEL CONTINUITY AND INTER-WFO CONSISTENCY
CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA OF IFR CEILINGS OVER CENTRAL GA ROUGHLY AHN AND S WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED THIS MORNING. THESE LOWER CLOUDS ARE MOVING NNW.
OTHERWISE NO MORE THEN 4000-5000 FT SCATTERED CU/SC AND SOME HIGH
CLOUDS. EXPECTING 5000-6000 FT CEILINGS LATER TODAY. PATCHY IFR
VSBYS FOG/HAZE MAINLY N AND W OF TAF SITES. OTHERWISE 3-6SM FOG/HAZE
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED T-STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE
LIKELY TONIGHT. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS ESE BECOMING SSW 10 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING. BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA         82  64  75  60 /  40  60  70  40
ATHENS          82  64  77  60 /  40  70  70  50
GAINESVILLE     82  63  75  60 /  60  70  70  50
ROME            85  64  79  60 /  60  70  70  40
COLUMBUS        87  66  81  64 /  30  40  70  50
MACON           87  66  82  63 /  30  40  70  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-200900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-CRAWFORD-
CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-FANNIN-FAYETTE-
FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-
HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-
OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-
SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-
TELFAIR-TOOMBS-TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-
WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK TROUGH THAT
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE MID U.S. THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MOVE TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING. SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA ANY TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA AS WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH...MOVE TO NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. CAPES WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 1500 WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT.
WHILE SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...THE LACK OF STRONGER DYNAMICS OR VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
KEEP STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

EA