Hail in Georgia, May 10, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1030 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
WV LOOPS SHOW PRETTY WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION ACRS NW GA ATTM WHICH
IS STILL PROGGED TO GRADUALLY SHEAR EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ASSOCIATED DEEPER RH AND A DEGREE OF DEEP LAYERED FORCING WILL
PROMOTE EXPANDING CVRG OF DEEP CONVECTION. MODIFIED 12Z AREA SNDGS
WOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON CAPES OF 2000 J/KG ACRS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWFA AS LONG AS TEMPERATURE CLIMB CONTINUES AND DWPTS MOISTEN
A BIT MORE...WHICH THEY SHOULD. WEAK EASTERLY SFC FLOW NOTED NORTH
AND EAST OF WEAK BNDRY ON ANALYSIS HAS SLOWED WARMING ACRS THE NC
PIEDMONT...ALSO SFC DWPTS A BIT BEHIND FCST AS WELL...SO HAVE
ADJUSTED AFTERNOON FCST DOWN A TAD ALONG I-77.

SHEAR PROFILES ACTUALLY MORE FAVORABLE TIL ABOUT EARLY AFTERNOON
AND THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY WEAK INTO THE EVENING AS CORE OF
MID/UPR CIRCULATION DRIFTS IN. SO...THE THREAT OF MULTI-CELL TSTMS
CONTINUES BEFORE TAKING ON A MORE PULSE LOOK LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGH THRU THE DAY AS COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT MOVE OVER THE CWFA. OBSERVED 12Z PWATS LOWER THAN
EXPECTED...ONLY FROM 75 TO 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL...BUT WILL MOISTEN
AS THE DAY WEARS ON...IN THEORY THIS WOULD LESSEN ANY EXCESSIVE
RNFL THREAT.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SW
TROUGH IS GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE FAR SOUTHWEST NC
MNTNS...SO POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO A SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THAT
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH TIME...THE SW TROUGH WILL BECOME
LESS ADVECTIVE...AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS...PERSISTENT UPPER
DIFFLUENCE...AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING
(ALTHOUGH STRETCHING WILL BE ADMITTEDLY WEAK AS THE FLOW CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW) WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION. SURFACE RIDGE ARCS FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT ATTM...WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SC PIEDMONT/MIDLANDS REGION. THESE
FEATURES HAVE RESULTED IN A PERSISTENCE OF 40/S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
NC PIEDMONT. THE WEAK LOW WILL LIKELY BE REINFORCED AS UPPER
DIFFLUENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION LATER TODAY...SO AM NOT SURE ABOUT
THE QUALITY OF SFC MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE WESTERN PIED/FHILLS
TODAY. FOR THIS REASON...BACKED OFF ON POPS ABOUT 10% IN THESE
AREAS. OTHERWISE...AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS THE
UPSTATE TODAY...AS COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW PASSES
OVERHEAD...AND 60S DEWPOINTS DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. POPS
WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY IN THE SC FOOTHILLS...WITH SOLID CHANCE IN
THE PIEDMONT. CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD TREND TOWARD THE UNORGANIZED
END OF THE SPECTRUM...BUT WOULDNT RULE OUT A MULTICELL CLUSTER OR
2. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO ISSUE AN OUTLOOK. WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL LOW AND PROGGED PW/S 150% OF NORMAL...THE LARGER THREAT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE HEAVY RAIN...WITH ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
WILL ADDRESS THESE ITEMS BRIEFLY IN THIS MORNINGS HWO.

UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...TAKING THE DEEP LAYER
RH WITH IT. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY TO
RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. SOUNDINGS BECOME LESS UNSTABLE FOR
THURSDAY...AS STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE IS SUCH THAT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC WOULD LIKELY MISS US WELL TO THE EAST.
THEREFORE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MNTN
CONVECTION...POPS WERE REMOVED FOR THIS PERIOD.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA...PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS A SERIES OF STRONG SW TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST  HAS THIS IN
HAND...AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES ATTM.

AVIATION...
WHILE THE ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE WENT OUT WITHOUT ANY VSBY
RESTRICTIONS... VSBYS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AT THE UPSTATE TAF
SITES. DWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY LARGE AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE A HAZE LAYER THAT IS ADVECTING IN OUT OF NE GA. HAVE ALREADY
AMENDED KAND TO GO PREVAILING MVFR VSBY THROUGH 1000 UTC AND WL MOST
LIKELY NEED TO AMEND KGSP AS WELL. EXPECT SHRA TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD
THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS SHIFTS PCPN
TYPES NEARLY UNCHANGED WITH VCSH AND CB FOR A FEW HRS THIS
MORNING...THEN PREVAILING SHRA WITH MODESTLY REDUCED VSBY THIS AFTN.
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN...PREVAILING
SHRA WL NEED TO CHANGED TO TSTMS FOR A FEW HRS ONCE WE HAVE A BETTER
IDEA ON THE TIMING OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION. PCPN WL END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EVENING...A TREND THAT HAS BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE TAFS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
714 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-111115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
714 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONE OR TWO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN
ADDITION...STORMS DEVELOPING TODAY WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY...
RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1123 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-102200-
ABBEVILLE-ALEXANDER-ANDERSON-AVERY-BUNCOMBE-BURKE NC-CABARRUS-
CALDWELL-CATAWBA-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER-CLEVELAND-DAVIE-ELBERT-
FRANKLIN GA-GASTON-GRAHAM-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREENWOOD-HABERSHAM-HART-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-IREDELL-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL-MECKLENBURG-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-POLK NC-RABUN-ROWAN-RUTHERFORD-
SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG-STEPHENS-SWAIN-TRANSYLVANIA-UNION NC-
UNION SC-YANCEY-YORK-
1123 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION...AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW TO A SUFFICIENT HEIGHT
TO PROMOTE HAIL DEVELOPMENT. THANKS TO RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES TO QUARTERS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...
OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE...FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-102115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...MARION...
MORGANTON...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...COLUMBUS...RUTHERFORDTON...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...
GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...GREENVILLE...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...
LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
145 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

...STRONG STORMS TO AFFECT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND PRODUCE FAIRLY STRONG SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT STORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OCCURING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...STRONG
WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. RAINFALL RATES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
HAVE RANGED BETWEEN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO AROUND ONE AND HALF
INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS. AREAS OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY ALONG LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA BY MID AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PEIDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES WITH THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE URBAN FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES WHILE DRIVING.

KRENTZ