Hail in Georgia, May 10, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
225 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WED/...TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPSTATE AND MIDLANDS THIS AFTN AHEAD OF AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER N GA. THE VSBL SATL PRESENTATION IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE WITH CYCLONIC CONVECTIVE BANDS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN NC
MOUNTAINS SE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS INTO INTERIOR SE GA. THE ATMOS
ACROSS SRN SC AND SE GA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE WITH LI/S OF
-3 TO -6 AND SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MAPS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH
OF THE AREA REMAINS WEAKLY CAPPED AROUND 700 MB BUT THIS COULD
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE UPR LOW DRAWS CLOSER AND
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. LOW-LVL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER POOR
WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID-UPR 50S SO AM NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. FIRST PERIOD POPS
WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDANT ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BUT WILL LIKELY GO NO HIGHER THAN 30 POPS. WBZ LVLS ARE QUITE
LOW SO LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. SPC IS
CURRENTLY MONITORING THE RGN FOR A PSBL SVR TSTM WATCH LATER THIS
AFTN. ONCE CONVECTION DIES OFF THIS EVENING EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LWR-MID 60S UNDER PC SKIES.

UPR LOW IS PROGGED TO BE JUST OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WED AS RIDGING
BUILDS OUT TO THE WEST. SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED BUT WITH A COLD POCKET ALOFT /H5 TEMPS OF -12 TO 14C/
ANY TSTMS THAT FIRE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH TUE/...UPR RIDGE WILL BECOME
REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A BROAD
UPR TROF WILL DIVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL
HELP PUSH A CDFNT S INTO THE OH AND MS VALLEYS ON SUN. THE FNT IS
FCST TO PUSH ACROSS SUN INTO MON AND THE BEST PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
CENTERED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...RATHER PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRES JUST N OF THE WATERS
THIS AFTN WITH LGT S TO SW WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA. WINDS TO
BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES LOOKS TO MOVE
IN. MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW TAKES HOLD LATER TOMORROW WITH THE
TROUGH SINKING SWD AND WEAK HIGH PRES MOVING DOWN THE COAST. HAVE
NOT YET COMPLETELY BOUGHT INTO ETA WHICH PUSHES A BACKDOOR FRONT
THROUGH ON FRI. HOWEVER...HAVE BACKED WINDS OVER NRN SECTIONS LATE
FRI WHICH BETTER MESHES WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. HIGH PRES TO
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. WINDS MAY PICK UP SUN AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE W. SEAS TO REMAIN AOB 3 FT THROUGH SAT.
&&

.AVIATION...RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES STILL TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ACTIVITY TRYING TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTN AND WILL AMEND TAFS IF NEED BE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN FOG IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY. HAVE LOWERED VSBYS FOR TOMORROW MORNING BUT KEPT THEM
IN THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR NOW DESPITE SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT IFR
VSBYS.
&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

ST/RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
503 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-111000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT
20 NM...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-INLAND
JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
503 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

CORRECTED TEXT

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
654 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

SCZ040-110000-
ALLENDALE-
654 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ALLENDALE COUNTY THROUGH 800 PM
EDT...

AT 654 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTH OF AVERILL...
OR ABOUT 12 MILES WEST OF ALLENDALE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND
MILLETT...AVERILL...MARTIN...BALDOCK...MILBURY...APPLETON...
SEIGLING...ALLENDALE...ROUSE AND BARTON THROUGH 800 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE EXPECTED.