Hail in Georgia, March 27, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH BOX LOOMS OMINOUSLY TO THE WEST OF OUR CWFA...ONE
COUNTY AWAY FROM OUR NORTHEAST GEORGIA WARNING UMBRELLA. KFFC 88-D
HAS SHOWN A RAPID GROWTH OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SYSTEM BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE GEORGIA CONVECTION IS LIFTING
NORTHEAST RAPIDLY...AND FORWARD SPEEDS COULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES. THERE HAS BEEN SOME LARGE HAIL
UPSTREAM...UNDER THE MUCH STEEPER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD
SWATH OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR. FARTHER SOUTHWEST...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
WERE DEVELOPING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT THEIR BEST THROUGH 06Z...THEN ESPECIALLY THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW PROGD TO VEER SIGNIFICANTLY SO THAT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
IS NOT AS GREAT.

CWFA REMAINS STABLE AND WEDGED FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH STEADY RISES
IN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITHIN THE DAMMING
REGION...EVEN AS DRIZZLE AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE AFFECTED THE NORTH.
AS THE APPROACHING GEORGIA CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER AND STABLE AIR
OVER OUR AREA...INITIAL WEAKENING WOULD BE EXPECTED.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE BROAD CONVECTIVE AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL
HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE STABLE WEDGE OF AIR FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
THE WESTERN UPSTATE. INTERIOR DAMMING REGION LOCATIONS...HOWEVER...AND
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN THE WEDGE UNTIL SCOURING OCCURS LATE TONITE.

EASTERN ZONES...AND THOSE SOUTHEAST ZONES BORDERING THE COLUMBIA
FOREAST AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...COULD ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT EROSION
OF THE STABLE COOL LAYER IN THE NEXT LITTLE WHILE. THE THERMAL MOISTURE
BOUNDARY HAS WORKED WELL INTO THE MIDLANDS...WITH LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS NOT
FAR TO OUR EAST OR SOUTH. THE WINDOW IS CLOSING...BUT THERE IS STILL TIME
TO ERODE PART OF THE WEDGE FOR OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
AND THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT TRANSPIRES TO OUR SURFACE FEATURES DURING
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS. IF THE APPROACHING GEORGIA CONVECTION
DOES NOT ERODE THE WEDGE...WHICH WE THOUGHT WAS POSSIBLE EARLIER BUT NOT
SO CONFIDENT NOW...AND IF THE THERMAL MOISTURE BOUNDARY DOES NOT ERODE
THE WEDGE ON OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY...THEN IT IS LIKELY THAT
THE WEDGE WILL HOLD UNTIL EROSION IS FORCED TONITE WITH LIFTING OF
THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA...AND APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROF.

DESPITE LACK OF IMPRESSIVE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...THERE ARE STILL
A NUMBER OF FACTORS THAT COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. CWFA IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF UPPER JET BY MORNING. GFS HAS A SUSPICIOUS CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED
VORT LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION TONITE...AND AN EVEN MORE SUSPICIOUS
SPLIT OF THE UPPER JET THIS EVENING...WHICH CREATES A TREMENDOUS
UPPER DIVERGENT BULLSEYE. AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR REMAINS DECENT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AND WE EXPECT BROAD DIFFERNTIAL POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION...ESPCEIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN SHEAR PROFILES
ARE NOT AS GOOD AS EARLIER.

COULD ALSO SEE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AS UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES LATE...AND
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH ETA AND GFS KEEP A PERSISTENT 30 TO 45 KTS
OF 85H FLOW INTO THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.
WE TENTATVIELY ARE ENCODING RAINFALL OF CLOSE TO TWO INCHES FOR THE
ESCARPMENT LOCATIONS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON FLOOD  WATCH FOR NOW.

THAT ALL BEING SAID...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TONITE AND EARLY
MONDAY. UPPER LOW TO CROSS AREA MONDAY. BEST FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA DURING THE DAY BUT STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS
AND PERHAPS STRONG CONVECTION AGAIN FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WE KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR
OUR NORTHERN TIER MONDAY...WITH CHANCE FOR UPSTATE/NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

NOT MUCH ON THE HORIZON...FOR NOW ANWAY...MONDAY NITE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LATEST HPC MANUAL PROGS HAVE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SAT. THE HPC TIMING IS
QUITE CLOSE TO THAT OF THE 1200 RUN OF THE GFS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER STRONG TROF...AND UNLIKE WITH THE PAST COUPLE VIGOROUS SRN
STREAM SHORT WAVES...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY INDICATION OF
COLD AIR DAMMING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE...
BUT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN THERE COULD BE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LATE FRI AND EARLY
SAT. THE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS BENIGN...AND
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC/ENSEMBLE MEX MOS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TAFS THIS PACKAGE IS WHEN AND WHERE THE WEDGE WL
ERODE. ATTM WNDS AT ALL TAFS SITES OUTSIDE THE MTNS ARE OUT OF THE
ENE TO NE. THIS IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 45 AND 90 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE
WITH THE NAM SURFACE WINDS WHICH WERE SOUTHEAST EVERYWHERE AT 18
UTC. THE FACT THAT THE SFC LOW WL BE DEEPENING TO OUR WEST...WHICH
WL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LLVL WINDS...DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR
THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL TO SCOUR IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE. THIS
HAPPENS TO BE WHERE MOST OF THE TAFS SITES ARE...AND HAVE FOLLOWED
MUCH CLOSER TO THE RUC WHICH THROUGH 0300 UTC HAS ONLY KCLT EVEN
BEGINNING TO TURN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH. CIGS SHOULD HOLD ON IN THE
LIFR TO VLIFR RANGE AT MOST SITES...AND AS THE COLD DOME BECOMES
SHALLOWER...VSBYS WL PROBABLY GET WORSE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WE SHOULD RAPIDLY SCOUR LATE TNGT AS THE SFC LOW CROSSES THE
REGION...AND HAVE MOST AREAS RAPIDLY IMPROVING 0600-0800 UTC.

WILL TEMPO IN A 4 HR PERIOD OF THUNDER TRYING TO HIGHLIGHT THE
PERIOD WHEN TSTMS WL BE MOST NUMEROUS. THIS SHOULD BE THE TIME
FRAME ROUGHLY 4 HRS BEFORE A STRONG MCS CROSSES THE REGION BETWEEN
ABOUT 0200 AND 0500 UTC TNGT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SAB
LONG TERM...BPM
AVIATION...BPM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1154 AM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-281100-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
1150 AM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  THE
THREAT INCLUDES DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  THE GREATEST RISK OF THIS SEVERE WEATHER IS IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.  THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY
RAIN WHICH WOULD RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS.
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT REFER
TO...CAESPSGSP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

EXPECT THE WIND TO INCREASE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SUSTAINED WIND OF 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS OVER 30
MPH.  WIND IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL BE BREEZY AT 10 TO 20
MPH AND GUSTY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING AS
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSSING FROM WEST TO EAST.  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1023 AM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-272100-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
1023 AM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS
BECOMING CLEAR THIS MORNING.  MORNING UPPER AIR AND SURFACE DATA
SUGGESTED THAT A COUPLE OF THREATS WILL EXIST.

FIRST...RAIN COOLED AIR HAS LEFT A BOUNDARY SEPARATING COOL STABLE
AIR TO THE NORTH...AND WARMER BUT MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH.  THIS
BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN PART OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...ACROSS
THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS AT 10 AM EST.  THERE WAS A LARGE AREA OF
THIN CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS
ALMOST ALL OF ALABAMA...INTO NORTH GEORGIA AND EAST TENNESSEE.  THIS
AREA SHOULD DEVELOP PLENTY OF SUN AND HEATING STARTING DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY.  IN FACT...SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN RESPONSE TO
HEATING WAS ALREADY TAKING PLACE.

IT IS LIKELY THAT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
IN THAT AIR MASS...AND MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
THE WESTERN PART OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL
EXIST IF AND WHEN SOME OF THESE STORMS MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN COOL AND WARM AIR...WHICH MAY LIFT SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

LATER TONIGHT...AN ORGANIZED LINE OR COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE STRONG UPPER AIR SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE PIEDMONT...AGAIN WITH THE
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS TORNADOES.

THIS COULD BECOME A DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.  COMMUNICATORS IN THOSE
AREAS ARE URGED TO BRIEF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ON THIS
LATEST INFORMATION...AND ON ANY SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES WHICH MAY BE
ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION OR SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

JONES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-280400-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
257 PM EST SUN MAR 27 2005

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

RAIN COOLED AIR HAS LEFT A BOUNDARY SEPARATING COOL STABLE
AIR TO THE NORTH...AND WARMER MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH.  THIS BOUNDARY
HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY...BUT HAS WEAKENED A BIT IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT IN NORTH CAROLINA.
THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH THE
DAY AT MANY STATIONS.  THE COOL AIR REMAINED FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...FROM
AROUND GREENVILLE TO ANDERSON...AND ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...TO ABOUT SHELBY AND SPARTANBURG...BACK TO GREENVILLE.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING.  THERE IS A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...EVEN AFTER THE STORMS
START MOVING OVER THE COLDER AIR AT AND NEAR THE SURFACE.  THE STORMS
WILL TEND TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY HOWEVER...AS LONG AS THE COLD AIR REMAINS
ENTRENCHED.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE BOUNDARY MAY ERODE MORE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN
EDGE...AND PLACES FROM HARTWELL AND ELBERTON...TO
GREENWOOD...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...AND MONROE...MAY GET INTO THE
WARMER AIR JUST TO THE SOUTH.  STORMS MOVING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
COULD BE QUITE PRONE TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

A LARGE COMPLEX...OR LINE OF STORMS...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
TO THE WEST...AND MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS
COMPLEX WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY
SOME TORNADOES.  IT IS POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN MONDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TONIGHT...WITH SOME FLASH
FLOODING OR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLY DEVELOPING.

THIS COULD BECOME A DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.  COMMUNICATORS IN THOSE AREAS ARE
URGED TO BRIEF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ON THIS LATEST
INFORMATION...AND ON ANY SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES WHICH MAY BE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION OR SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

JONES